Democrat Taylor Rehmet’s upset win of a Republican-held state Senate seat in ruby-red Texas is stoking GOP fears that Republicans could lose a chamber of Congress in November without President Donald Trump on the ballot.
Rehmet won the open Texas Senate District 9 seat, which covers the Fort Worth area, by 14 percentage points, more than a year after Trump won the district by 17 points in 2024 — a 31-point swing.
Trump refused to take responsibility for the loss, telling reporters on Sunday that “I’m not involved in that. That’s a local Texas race” despite previously urging Texans to vote for a “phenomenal Candidate” Leigh Wambsganss.
“I didn’t hear about it,” he also said. “You mean I won by 17, and this person lost? Things like that happen.” The president claimed that the results were not transferable because he was not on the ballot.
But Republicans are not following Trump’s lead of downplaying the significance of the loss.
“The results from SD 9 are a wake-up call for Republicans across Texas,” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick wrote on social media. “Our voters cannot take anything for granted.”
“The alarm bell went off again, and Republicans would be foolish to ignore it,” GOP strategist Dennis Lennox told the Washington Examiner. “The lesson is straightforward: November will be decided by turnout.”
“It’s time to hit the panic button,” Jason Roe, a Republican strategist who has worked on presidential campaigns, said bluntly. “The time for spin is over. On the Democratic side … they are furious. And we continue to hemorrhage voters who voted for Trump a little over a year ago. And if something significant doesn’t happen, we’re going to get slaughtered.”
Yet some Republicans did caution that the race was not as consequential as some believe. “It’s noteworthy but not cause for concern,” national GOP strategist Brian Seitchik said.
Seitchik claimed that most voters were not aware of the special election due to the upcoming Texas Senate primary next month. Although Seitchik added, “I’m not going to pretend that this is good news, but it is certainly not evidence that the sky is falling.”
Democrats, however, boasted that “no Republican seat is safe” in the aftermath of Rehmet’s win.
“It’s clear as day that this disastrous Republican agenda is hurting working families in Texas and across the country, which is why voters in red, blue, and purple districts are putting their faith in candidates like Taylor Rehmet,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement. “This victory is a warning sign to Republicans across the country. In a Trump +17 district, Republicans had to go all out and still lost this race.”
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Since Trump took office last year, Democrats have won a multitude of off-year elections, including both the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races. After Rep. Matt Van Epps (R-TN) won the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District by roughly 9 points, defeating Democrat Aftyn Behn in a seat that Trump won by over 20 points in 2024, Martin wrote in a December memo that “Democrats have now won or overperformed in 220 out of 248 key and special elections” in 2025.
Republicans such as Lennox have warned that “without Donald Trump on the ballot, Republicans have a serious turnout problem.”
“We’ve now seen this pattern repeat itself in virtually every special and off-year election,” Lennox said.
Others claimed that the fallout from the aggressive tactics of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in Minneapolis, which has resulted in at least two American citizens killed, has taken up precious oxygen from the Trump administration’s messaging focus on affordability.
Republicans have urged Trump to reclaim the narrative by continuing his nationwide tour touting the administration’s efforts to lower grocery, gas, healthcare, and housing costs. Some have even called for Trump to fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to show that he is taking the backlash from the protests with ICE in Minneapolis seriously.
Democrats, meanwhile, are signaling their confidence that they will prevail in November.
A RealClearPolitics poll composite of the generic 2026 congressional vote showed Democrats leading Republicans 46.5%-41.7%.
The Cook Political Report projects 189 solid Democratic House seats, eight likely Democratic seats, and 14 lean Democratic seats compared to 186 solid Republican House seats, 16 likely Republican seats, and four lean Republican seats. Just 18 seats are seen as toss-ups.
Cook’s Senate projections show a much harder path for Democrats to take back control. Only nine seats are solid Democratic compared to 16 solid Republican seats. There is one lean Democratic seat and likely Democratic seats compared to two lean Republican seats and two likely Republican seats. There are four toss-up races.
Separate from the Texas election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee claimed in a Sunday memo that its frontliners had a 3-to-1 fundraising advantage over Republican competitors and an average cash-on-hand advantage of $1.8 million to $281,000, according to fourth-quarter FEC filing reports.
“House Republicans are running scared, and they should be,” DCCC spokesman Viet Shelton warned. “Going into the on-year, momentum is on our side – and with better candidates, a better message, and the public souring on Republicans, Democrats are poised to take back the majority.”
Yet, the National Republican Congressional Committee remains confident the GOP has the advantage heading into the midterm elections.
“Far-left Democrats can try to rebrand, but they can’t rewrite their record,” NRCC spokesman Christian Martinez told the Washington Examiner. “In November, voters will remember Democrats voted for the biggest tax increase since World War II and against no tax on tips and overtime. Republicans are fighting for and delivering wins for working families.”
Senate Democrats in some of the top races this year also have outraised their Republican competitors, including Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who has $25.5 million cash on hand more than all of the Republicans challenging him combined.
However, the Republican National Committee has an almost $100 million advantage over the DNC, according to the latest FEC reports. The DNC has $14 million cash on hand but had $17.5 million in debt, while the RNC has a little over $95 million cash on hand and the added benefit of no debt.
The Texas state Senate race is a reminder that a financial advantage cannot overcome a turnout problem, and Republicans are concerned that the race could be a harbinger if the embattled Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate GOP primary against Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX).
“This outcome should send chills through the national Republican senatorial committee because this should not be a competitive seat, and given the dynamics of the primary that we have there and the outcome of the special election, we can’t take Texas for granted,” Roe said.
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Roe warned that “Only Ken Paxton can elect Jasmine Crockett in Texas,” referring to the firebrand House Democrat running against state Sen. James Talarico in the Democratic Senate primary.
“If Ken Paxton is the Republican nominee, Republicans aren’t just risking a difficult race — they are setting themselves up to lose Texas,” Lennox also warned.