RUTTE: ‘GOOD LUCK’ DEFENDING EUROPE WITHOUT THE U.S.: NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte — who has turned out to be one of President Donald Trump’s fiercest defenders in Europe — is warning European nations that they lack the resources and industrial base to field a military force fully capable of defending the continent. In a speech and Q-and-A session to a pair of European Union committees in Brussels, Rutte laid out a harsh reality to EU lawmakers, warning that their discussion of creating a European army independent of the U.S. is folly.
“If anyone thinks here, again, that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the U.S., keep on dreaming. You can’t,” Rutte said. “We need each other. And why do we need each other? I tell you, first of all, because also the U.S. needs NATO.”
The blunt assessment comes as the Pentagon’s new National Defense Strategy asserts that “European NATO dwarfs Russia in economic scale, population, and, thus, latent military power” and that “NATO allies are therefore strongly positioned to take primary responsibility for Europe’s conventional defense.”
But Rutte warned that Europe is in no position to go it alone. For one thing, it would cost far more than the 5% of GDP in defense spending NATO countries have pledged to achieve by 2035. “Those who you are pleading for that, forget that. You can never get there with 5%. It will be 10%,” Rutte said. “You have to build up your own nuclear capability. That costs billions and billions of euros. You will lose then in that scenario; you would lose the ultimate guarantor of our freedom, which is the U.S. nuclear umbrella. So, hey, good luck.”
ON THE ARCTIC: ‘I THINK HE’S RIGHT’: Despite Trump announcing that, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, he had secured a framework agreement for total U.S. access to Greenland, Rutte made clear he had no authority to do that. “I have no mandate to negotiate on behalf of Denmark, so I didn’t, and I will not.”
Instead, Rutte said, he focused on the need for NATO to do much more to secure the entire Arctic region and on how to prevent Russia and China from gaining access “in a military sense or an economic sense” to the region, not just Greenland.
“President Trump, by the way, and I will defend him,” Rutte said. “I really feel that he deserves some defense. He was the one during Trump 45 who already said there is an issue with Arctic security. And again, he did so when he came back into office in January. And I think he’s right. There is an issue with the Arctic region.”
Rutte, who some in Europe have dubbed the “Trump Whisperer” for his ability to get in Trump’s ear, acknowledged that his praise of the man who insulted and threatened Europe with a menacing speech at Davos just days ago wasn’t sitting well with his audience.
“I know I’m irritating a lot of you again, but I think so, because as I said, also in Davos, the 2% reached by all NATO countries now at the end of 2025 would never, ever, ever have happened without Trump,” he said. “Hey, listen, if somebody is doing good stuff… and President Trump is doing a lot of good stuff, I believe.”
ON UKRAINE: ‘YOU HAVE TO DIG INTO YOUR OWN STOCKPILES’: Rutte gently suggested that if Europe really wanted to show its resolve, the countries supporting Ukraine should dig deeper into their own stockpile for interceptor missiles to blunt Russia’s relentless drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and civilian targets, including apartment buildings and churches.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky posted on X this morning that Russia conducted a “brutal drone attack” overnight on Odesa. “The Russians launched more than 50 drones at the city, with energy infrastructure and civilian facilities as the primary target. Five residential buildings were damaged … As of now, dozens of people are reported injured, including children.”
“The Russians are really heavily targeting this infrastructure, civilian infrastructure, and therefore leaving Ukrainians, literally in the freezing cold, it’s without heat, without light, without water,” Rutte said. “This is now, I would argue, the harshest winter for Ukrainians in over a decade. It is now minus 20 in Kyiv.”
Ukrainian defenses are unable to keep up with the onslaught. “The interception rate has come down,” said Rutte, who pleaded with European countries to find more missiles for European air defense systems supplied to Ukraine. “Some of the NASAMS systems now in Ukraine do not have enough interceptors to fight back,” he said. “I hope you still will spend money on other suppliers, but particularly when it comes to the interceptors and defence of Ukraine … And I agree with the parliamentarian who said that you also have to dig into your own stockpiles.”
US SECURITY AGREEMENT FOR UKRAINE IS ‘100% READY’ TO BE SIGNED: ZELENSKY
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Christopher Tremoglie. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre.
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HAPPENING TODAY: The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike force of escort warships are now operating in the Indian Ocean within striking distance of Iran, as President Trump said in an interview with Axios, the situation is “in flux.”
The U.S. Central Command posted photos of U.S. sailors conducting routine maintenance on the carrier, saying only that it is “deployed to the Middle East to promote regional security and stability.”
Axios has not published a full transcript of the Monday interview, but reported that Trump boasted, “We have a big armada next to Iran. Bigger than Venezuela,” while suggesting Iran has indicated it wants to negotiate. “They want to make a deal. I know so. They called on numerous occasions. They want to talk.”
Trump has been contemplating the possibility of launching airstrikes against Iran for about two weeks, but the targets and overall objectives of military action are unclear. At the height of the street demonstrations in Iran, in which Iranian security forces killed thousands of protesters, Trump urged the protesters on, saying, “Help is on the way.”
ABRAHAM LINCOLN CARRIER STRIKE GROUP NOW IN MIDDLE EAST AHEAD OF POSSIBLE IRAN ATTACK
ALSO TODAY: INCHING TOWARD A PARTIAL SHUTDOWN: Outraged Democrats and frustrated Republicans are trying to reach some sort of compromise to avoid a partial government shutdown that would begin Saturday, unless six critical funding bills can pass the Senate.
Democrats, infuriated by the aggressive enforcement tactic employed by ICE officers in Minneapolis and the shooting death of 37-year-old ICU under Alex Pretti, are demanding that funding for the Department of Homeland Security be stripped from the $1.3 trillion spending package and negotiated separately.
“What this reminds me of is defund the police. That’s what Democrats are talking about doing in the Senate,” Rep. Michael Flood (R-NE) said on Fox Business. “[Senate Majority] Leader [John] Thune is going to do what’s right for America. We cannot allow the government to shut down.”
“He’ll make the right call, ultimately, as to how he proceeds,” Flood told Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo. “It would be very poor judgment for the Democrats to allow us to go into a shutdown on this defund the police effort.”
“[It’s] up to Majority Leader Thune whether or not he will work with us to separate out the Homeland Security Bill, negotiate some new amendments to that that would prevent the sort of coldblooded murder of Alex Pretti that happened on Saturday,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) said on MS Now.
“I think there is a path forward here for us to fund the rest of the government if Republicans will take it. And I think we will be advancing a discreet and clear set of things that need to be done, like body cameras, like ending masked agents,” Coons said. “That’s being worked through right now by our caucus. And I expect early this week we’ll have a set of things that should be agreeable that would make sure that federal agents are following the same sorts of rules, oversight, and transparency as state and local law enforcement does every single day.”
CONGRESS IS PREPARING FOR A PARTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. HOW IS IT DIFFERENT FROM THE LAST ONE?
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group now in Middle East ahead of possible Iran attack
Washington Examiner: US security agreement for Ukraine is ‘100% ready’ to be signed: Zelensky
Washington Examiner: Top Chinese general purged from military on accusations of betraying Xi Jinping
Washington Examiner: Tom Rogan Opinion: China military purge increases medium-term Taiwan threat
Washington Examiner: Trump says he and Walz are on ‘similar wavelength’ after phone call over ICE operations in Minnesota
Washington Examiner: Walz insists Trump has ‘facts wrong’ about Minnesota after ‘very good call’
Washington Examiner: Greg Bovino relieved of duties overseeing Border Patrol operations with ICE
Washington Examiner: Trump’s immigration footing comes unstuck as Minnesota shooting turns into ‘Operation Cluster****’
Washington Examiner: Appeals court indefinitely halts judge’s limits on ICE tactics in Minnesota
Washington Examiner: Activists offer their own crackdown on ICE through license plate tracking sites
Washington Examiner: Noem has called victims of ICE shootings domestic terrorists. Do they fit the definition?
Washington Examiner: Obama-appointed judge again blocks Trump from ending legal status for thousands of migrants
Washington Examiner: Trump raises tariffs on South Korea by 10% over failure to enact trade deal
Washington Examiner: Venezuela’s acting president rebukes US control: ‘Enough already’
Washington Examiner: Grieving families of DC midair collision victims say more must be done to fix safety concerns one year after tragedy
Washington Examiner: Experts urge Trump administration to take tough stance against EU regulations targeting US
Washington Examiner: Russia offers cash bonuses, frees prisoners and lures foreigners to replenish its troops in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Iran’s next chapter must be written in freedom
AP: NATO chief wishes ‘good luck’ to those who think Europe can defend itself without US help
Washington Post: After 80-year bond, Germans find breaking up with the U.S. is hard to do
Kyiv Independent: Russian negotiators soften hardline stance in private, US officials say. Ukrainians urge caution
New York Post: Inside the cruel plan to fool young Latinas seeking travel into making killer drones in Russia
Oilprice.com: Trump’s Iran Gamble Is Catching Up With Him
New York Times: In Xi’s China, Even the Mightiest General Can Fall
Wall Street Journal: Army Awards Salesforce $5.6 Billion Software Deal
Air & Space Forces Magazine: AEW 2.0: Air Force Revises Deployment Model Again
DefenseScoop: Pentagon Broadens Counter-Drone Authorities in Bid to Shore Up Vulnerable US Bases
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force’s Newest Reconnaissance Satellites Could Come Online by 2030
The War Zone: New E-4C Doomsday Plane Could Take on Airborne ICBM Launcher Role
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Program Office Turns to New Acquisition Tools to Leverage Commercial
Defense News: Critics See ‘Chilling Effect’ of DOD Crackdown on 8(a) Small-Biz Deals
THE CALENDAR:
TUESDAY | JANUARY 27
8 a.m. 1777 F St. NW — Council on Foreign Relations China Strategy Initiative and the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy 21st Century China Center discussion: “China and Congress: Is There Still a Bipartisan Consensus?” with Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE); Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE); Michael Froman, CFR president; Stephen Hadley, principal at Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC; and Rush Doshi, CFR senior fellow, Asia studies and director, CFR China Strategy Initiative https://www.cfr.org/event/china-and-congress-there-still-bipartisan-consensus
8:30 a.m. 1700 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit: “Accelerating the Mission: Delivering Deterrence with Urgency,” with Scott Pappano, principal deputy administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration; Audrey Beldio, NNSA principal assistant deputy administrator for production, modernization and materials management; andSean McDonald, senior adviser for the NNSA Integrated Plutonium Program https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit-2026/
12 p.m. 957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs book discussion: The Case for American Power, with author Shadi Hamid, columnist, Washington Post; and retired U.S. Ambassador to Tunisia Gordon Gray https://calendar.gwu.edu/event/the-case-for-american-power-shadi-hamid
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “Europe and the Crisis in Transatlantic Relations,” with former U.K. Ambassador to Russia Tony Brenton; Zoltan Koskovics, director, Center for Fundamental Rights Geopolitical Unit; Zachary Paikin, deputy director, Quincy Institute’s Better Order Project and research fellow at the Quincy Institute’s Grand Strategy Program; and Anatol Lieven, director, Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program and chair in American diplomatic history at the Quincy Institute https://quincyinst.org/events/europe-and-the-crisis-in-transatlantic-relations/
1:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Technology and the Bomb: Evaluating Proliferation Risks in a Rapidly Evolving World,” with Amy McAuliffe, visiting professor, practice at the University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs; Matthew Bunn, professor of practice of energy, national security and foreign policy at the Harvard Kennedy School; Jane Darby Menton, fellow at the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program; and Rose Gottemoeller, non-resident senior fellow at the CEIP Nuclear Policy Program https://carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/01/technology-and-the-bomb
2 p.m. 1025 Connecticut Ave. NW — Center for the National Interest panel discussion: “Iran: What Comes Next?” with Sina Azodi, assistant professor, Middle East Politics, George Washington University; and Alex Vatanka, senior fellow, Middle East Institute RSVP: Jordan Henry at [email protected]
4 p.m. 2100 NW 100th St., Clive, Iowa — President Donald Trump delivers remarks on energy and the economy in Clive, Iowa. https://eoppra.my.site.com/survey/survey
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 28
8 a.m. 801 Allen Y. Lew Pl., NW — Clarion Defence and the Hudson Institute 2026 Apex Defense Conference, with Jeff Frankston, acting deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial base resilience; and Vice Adm. Michael Vernazza, commander, Naval Information Forces, CONTACT: [email protected] [Note: Register at https://apex-2026.reg.buzz/
8:15 a.m. 1700 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit: “Accelerating the Mission: Delivering Deterrence with Urgency,” with updates from U.S. Strategic Command https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit-2026/
2:30 p.m. 232A Russell — Senate Armed Services Cybersecurity Subcommittee hearing: “The Department’s Cyber Force Generation Plan and the Associated Implementation Plan,” with Air Force Brig. Gen. R. Ryan Messer, deputy director for global operations, J3 Joint Staff; Army Lt. Gen. William Hartman, acting commander, U.S. Cyber Command, performing the duties of director, National Security Agency and acting chief of the Central Security Service; and Assistant Defense Secretary for Cyber Policy Katherine Sutton http://www.armed-services.senate.gov
3 p.m. 1400 L St. NW — Atlantic Council discussion: “2026 National Defense Authorization Act,” with Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA); and Frederick Kempe, president and CEO of the Atlantic Council RSVP: [email protected]
THURSDAY | JANUARY 29
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club Defense R&D Summit, with Emil Michael, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Col. Daniel May, chief AI officer for Air Force intelligence at the Air Force Department; and Thomas Rondeau, principal director, FutureG and 5G at the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering https://www.potomacofficersclub.com/events/2026-defense-rd-summit/
8:45 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Airpower Forum, with Lt. Gen. Scott Pleus, acting Air Force vice chief of staff; Brig. Gen. Jason Bartolomel, commander, Air Force Research Laboratory; and Lt. Gen. Jason Armagost, deputy commander, Air Force Global Strike Command; Lt. Gen. David Harris, deputy chief of staff of Air Force Futures; and Gen. Adrian Spain, commander, Air Combat Command https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/events/2nd-airpower-forum-26/
10 a.m. 253 Russell — Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee Coast Guard, Maritime, and Fisheries Subcommittee hearing: “The Fleet We Funded: Assessing Coast Guard Force Laydown on the Heels of Historic Investment,” with Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Kevin Lunday http://commerce.senate.gov
12 p.m. — Forecast International virtual event, “Global Defense Spending Snapshot: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook,” with Shaun McDougall, lead analyst for U.S. defense markets at Forecast International; Derek Bisaccio, lead analyst for defense markets and strategic analysis at Forecast International; and David Hutchins, moderator & lead analyst for defense systems and strategic analysis at Forecast International https://events.forecastinternational.com/global-defense-spending-snapshot/register/
12 p.m. — New America’s Future Security Program virtual book discussion: The Warhead: The Quest to Build the Perfect Weapon, with author Jeffrey E. Stern https://events.newamerica.org/thewarheadthequesttobuildtheperfectweapon
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group’s DefenseOne virtual discussion: “From Skies to Seas: How Drones Are Reshaping The INDOPACOM Challenge” https://events.defenseone.com/from-skies-to-seas-how-drones-are-dominating-indopacom/
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — Institute of World Politics discussion: “The War in Ukraine — An Update from the Front,” with Glenn Corn, IWP faculty member and 34-year veteran of the U.S. intelligence and foreign affairs communities https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-war-in-ukraine-an-update-from-the-front-tickets
8 p.m. — Jews United for Democracy and Justice virtual discussion: “Israel, Gaza and the Middle East: What Lies Ahead?,” with Dennis Ross, fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former director, policy planning at the State Department; and Warren Olney, host and executive producer, “To the Point” https://www.jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/blog/event
FRIDAY | JANUARY 30
9:15 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies summit: “Exploring Global AI Policy Priorities Ahead of the India AI Impact Summit,” with French Ambassador to the U.S. Laurent Bill; Indian Ambassador to the U.S. Vinay Kwatra; Russ Headlee, senior bureau official in the State Department Bureau of Cyberspace and Digital Policy; and Poornima Shenoy, U.S. representative for the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry https://www.csis.org/events/exploring-global-ai-policy-priorities-ahead-india-ai-impact-summit
10 a.m. — National Institute for Deterrence Studies virtual seminar: “Reflections on Russia’s Nuclear Behavior: Doctrine vs. Reality,” with Mark Schneider, senior analyst, National Institute for Public Policy; and Stephen Blank, non-resident senior fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute https://thinkdeterrence.com/events/reflections-on-russias-nuclear-behavior
12:45 p.m. 1957 E St. NW — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs Sigur Center for Asian Studies discussion: “Making Sense of Japan’s Defense Policy: Continuities, Changes, and Challenges,” with Ryo Kiridori, research fellow, National Institute for Defense Studies; and Kuniko Ashizawa, professional lecturer, GWU Elliott School of International Affairs RSVP: [email protected]