The death toll of Iranian protesters may be far higher than originally thought, with a new estimate putting the figure at over 30,000.
Beginning on Dec. 28, large protests broke out across Iran in response to deteriorating economic conditions, soon transforming into a protest against the Islamic government itself. The protests grew significantly over the following weeks, culminating in a brutal crackdown on Jan. 8 and Jan. 9. Due to a nationwide internet blackout, little concrete information has been confirmed. Various estimates have since emerged regarding the death toll, ranging from 3,117 given by Iranian state news, 4,902 given by the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, and data from Iranian doctors putting it at 16,500.
The new estimate of 30,000 killed was given to Time by two senior officials from Iran’s Ministry of Health, only counting those killed on the nights of Jan. 8 and Jan. 9, suggesting an even larger total.
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The officials reported that so many protesters were killed that the state ran out of body bags, and the use of ambulances was changed to eighteen-wheel semi-trailers.
The Health Ministry’s count is further backed up by a count gathered by physicians and first responders, also shared with Time, which gave the number of deaths recorded by hospitals at 30,304. Dr. Amir Parasta, a German-Iranian eye surgeon who worked on the data, said this is almost certainly a massive undercount, as it didn’t take into account protesters registered at military hospitals, those taken directly to morgues, or killed in more remote regions.
The killings were done primarily by shooting, with regime backers opening fire from heavy machine guns mounted on trucks and snipers shooting protesters from rooftops. Videos of the shootings have begun trickling out through the use of Starlink terminals, though Tehran has figured out how to jam many of these.
The death count is the largest reputable estimation by a long shot, and would place the mass killing at an unparalleled spot in modern history. The only comparable mass killing over such a short period of time would be the El Fashir massacre in Sudan in October, though a reliable kill count is still unknown. Over two weeks, the Rapid Support Forces murdered thousands of civilians, with one estimate putting the kill count at over 60,000.
That massacre was carried out by a paramilitary group during a civil war, however, with whatever means at their disposal. The Iranian regime’s crackdown is unique for being carried out by government forces. If confirmed, it would represent the single largest mass killing orchestrated by a government against its own people in modern times. It would also stand as the largest mass shooting by a sitting government in decades.
Time noted that one of the only comparable incidents occurred during the Holocaust, when Nazi death squads shot over 33,000 Ukrainian Jews in the Babi Yar massacre.
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The Islamic Republic has been known for its brutal handling of protesters and dissidents in the past, but the scale of the latest killings has the capacity to turn Iran into even more of a pariah state. It would also further tank the already unpopular government’s perception at home, making rule over a resentful populace much more difficult.
Trump pledged support for the Iranian protesters if the state security forces opened fire on them, but ultimately called off a strike due to inadequate military resources in the region at the peak of the crackdown, and lobbying against the strike by allies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Israel. However, he has spent the past couple of weeks moving assets into place, such as the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group.