The Democratic Party is motivated by a new 2026 election forecast that shows there are more competitive state legislative chambers than in the past two election cycles, giving Democrats hope they can break more GOP supermajorities across the nation this year.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a top election forecaster run by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, projected 15 chambers will be competitive this year. The number of competitive chambers at this time in the 2022 and 2024 election cycles was 10 and 12, respectively.
Of the 15 legislative chambers deemed competitive, eight are held by Republicans and four are held by Democrats. The other three chambers are either controlled by bipartisan, cross-party coalitions or tied between the two major parties.
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Nine chambers are considered toss-ups. The ones currently controlled by Republicans are the Arizona House and Senate, the Michigan House, the New Hampshire House, and the Wisconsin House and Senate, while Democrats control the Michigan Senate and Minnesota House and Senate.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball says Democrats “are looking forward to a favorable cycle, driven by a reaction to President Donald Trump and his policies.” However, the election forecaster notes, they need to be aware that voters in some states “may be tired of Democratic governance at the state level.”
Nonetheless, it adds that Democrats are poised to “ride a blue wave and break GOP supermajorities.”
The news was particularly encouraging to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which issued a positive press release on Friday about its outlook for this year’s midterm elections.
In a strategy memo released last month, DLCC revealed it invested $50 million into the 2026 elections and expanded its target map to include 42 chambers and 27 states.
Democrats are already emboldened by their 2025 election wins at the state level, and they intend to carry that momentum into this year.
In a statement to the Washington Examiner, the Republican State Leadership Committee isn’t worried about the Democratic Party’s apparent edge in state legislative races.
“If Democrats want to waste their significant fundraising advantage chasing fantasy wins in red states, we say go for it, they clearly haven’t learned a thing, and we welcome their repeat mistakes. While Democrats stretch themselves thin, state Republicans remain the party voters trust to deliver real affordability without raising taxes and to unleash America’s energy independence to drive costs down even further,” RSLC Communications Director Mason Di Palma said.
“At the end of the day, Democrats are overextending on ideology, while Republicans are focused on winning with serious policies that actually lower costs for families,” he added.
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Democrats began breaking GOP supermajorities late last year while the redistricting issue was playing out across multiple red and blue states. Republicans in the Minnesota Senate and Iowa Senate lost their supermajority control, thanks to Democratic candidates flipping enough seats in both chambers. Additionally, Democrats secured a supermajority in the New Jersey General Assembly.
For this year’s midterm elections, Democrats are simultaneously looking to break or prevent GOP supermajorities and to build their own supermajorities. The recent DLCC strategy memo shows some of these key chambers are in red states, such as Florida and Indiana, in addition to blue states that include Colorado and New York.