House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) said Wednesday it is unlikely a second reconciliation bill will get through Congress this year, an admission that Washington Examiner investigations editor Sarah Bedford said showed Republicans “seem to understand” as they could lose control of the House after the 2026 midterm elections.
Appearing on the Hugh Hewitt Show Wednesday, Bedford said President Donald Trump would have to throw his weight behind House Republicans if they are to move meaningfully toward a new reconciliation bill.
“I think it will ultimately depend on whether the White House ends up backing this move, and Trump and the White House officials have played their cards pretty close to the vest on whether this is something they’re interested in,” Bedford said. “It would be less ambitious than the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the reconciliation package from last year, but Republicans seem to understand that this is probably their last shot for a few years to get anything done legislatively, given the likelihood the Democrats will retake the House in November.”
Polymarket odds on Thursday afternoon gave the Democrats a 79% chance of winning a House majority this year, a number that has slowly but steadily risen since the opposition party won two gubernatorial elections and other key races last fall.
Washington Examiner Executive Editor Bob Cusack said Tuesday that Republicans’ strategy for the midterm elections should be to win over public opinion on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act because it “isn’t popular.”
Bedford said the Republican Study Committee is “keeping the flame of hope alive” for a new reconciliation bill, as it has released a “sweeping proposal on affordability” that members believe can be accomplished via reconciliation.
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Bedford added that one of the proposals with potential for “broad appeal” is allowing people to use their retirement savings for down payments on a first-time home purchase. She said this would be “huge” for people in her age group who are saving up to buy their first home.
She concluded that a reconciliation bill could be passed if House Republicans “focus on something narrow that has broad appeal.” The proposed reconciliation bill includes provisions such as eliminating state taxes and healthcare reforms, leading Bedford to say Republicans may want to “pare that back significantly” to give it a better chance in Congress.