China’s population rate declined again last year, as the country grapples with how to revive birth rates 10 years after ending its decadeslong one-child policy.
China’s birth rate in 2025 stood at 5.63 per 1,000 people, according to government data released Monday, marking the lowest on record since births began to be formally documented in 1949, when the Chinese Communist Party took power under Mao Zedong. The country’s fertility rate is now one of the lowest in the world, estimated to stand at around 1, far below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to maintain population size.
The development comes despite Beijing’s growing attempts to target the birth decline crisis, including through a recently announced 13% tax on contraceptives, such as condoms and birth control pills. And the data highlights Asia’s struggle with population decline, an issue that has spread to Europe and, most recently, to the United States.
The matter was described as “the greatest challenge facing our country” by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi last year. And in the West, French President Emmanuel Macron led calls for a “demographic rearmament“ after births in France reached their lowest level since 1919.
Fertility rates have been declining at a slower pace in the U.S., but experts warn the trends are catching up and promise to have a sweeping effect on global power dynamics. A federal fix could cost trillions annually, as data shows deaths now outnumber births across nearly half of the 50 states, Alex Nowrasteh, the Cato Institute’s senior vice president for policy, previously told the Washington Examiner.
“I don’t love sort of catastrophizing language, but I think it’s a big problem, and it is an urgent problem — it’s a problem right now,” Demographic expert Lyman Stone added.
In China, researchers say the birth rates have plunged to levels not seen in centuries.
“Equivalent to the level of 1738, when the total population was only 150 million,” Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, wrote in response to the latest data.
He warned that the actual number of births is likely lower than that propagated by Chinese authorities.
“Based on the officially announced 7.92 million births in 2025, and using the officially announced age structure of women of childbearing age, I estimate the fertility rate to be approximately 0.97-0.98; if this fertility rate is applied to my age structure model, the number of births would only be 7.39 million,” he said in a post to X.
“In contrast, the 2016 two-child policy projections expected a 2025 fertility rate of 1.73 and 14.33 million births,” Fuxian added.
Chinese authorities suppressed births for years under its “one child” policy instituted in 1980. The government loosened restrictions in 2016, allowing two children, and later authorized three children per woman in 2021. Beijing allocated over $12 billion this year for its first nationwide child care subsidy program designed for children under three.
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But the relaxed policies thus far have largely failed to undo decades of cultural expectations. The country’s population has now declined for four consecutive years. The number of babies born was 7.92 million in 2025, down 17% from the previous year. Twenty-three percent of China’s population is now over 60. By 2100, China is projected to have lost more than half of its current population, according to data from the United Nations.
In 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous country.