The United Arab Emirates-backed separatist government in Yemen fully collapsed after a lightning offensive from the internationally recognized Saudi-backed government.
Tensions between the Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council and UAE-backed Southern Transition Council exploded in December when the latter launched a sudden offensive to reignite the civil war, seizing the majority of the PLC’s territory. Saudi Arabia quickly stepped in, and after failed negotiations with the UAE, began pounding the group with airstrikes. With Saudi air cover, the PLC swept aside STC forces in under a week, with most of the latter’s forces disintegrating. The PLC went beyond retaking its recently conquered territories, pushing into STC territory and seizing nearly all of it by Wednesday. The PLC now controls all non-Houthi territory in Yemen.
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STC president flees, with help from UAE
The fate of the STC was sealed on Wednesday when STC President Aidarous al-Zubaidi fled the capital, resulting in its peaceful seizure by PLC forces. Many STC soldiers defected to the PLC ahead of the advance.
Al-Zubaidi was supposed to fly to Riyadh for peace talks but, fearing arrest, dodged the flight that was supposed to take him there. The Saudi-led coalition released a statement accusing the UAE of facilitating al-Zubaidi’s escape to Somaliland via a ship from the port of Aden, then flying him to Abu Dhabi.
The statement was notable for being highly specific, acting on intelligence. The statement identified the exact vessel and plane used to facilitate his escape, and identified Major General Awad Saeed Bin Musleh Al Ahbabi, using his nom de guerre Abu Saeed, as directly helping to facilitate his escape.
Al-Zubaidi was charged with treason by the PLC, and the remnants of the STC leadership traveled to Riyadh to negotiate the “southern cause” with other anti-Houthi Yemenis. The remnants of the STC said it lost contact with its 50-member delegation after it landed in Riyadh on Wednesday, with their phones believed to have been confiscated.
The U.S. has publicly urged de-escalation since the STC’s opening offensive last month, caught between two of its longtime allies. The Trump administration hasn’t taken a side between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which hold a prominent role in President Donald Trump’s vision for the region.
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Fall of UAE-backed forces comes after 8 years of buildup
The STC formally declared the independence of South Yemen over the weekend, a declaration that is now moot. It served as one of the shortest-lived self-proclaimed independent countries in recent history.
The end of the STC marks a dramatic escalation of one of the UAE’s largest investments, which has been a key component of its ambitions in Yemen since 2017. The Emiratis had built up the separatist cause for eight years, only to have the entire project collapse in under a week.
Scores were killed in fighting since STC forces launched their opening offensive to seize control of PLC territory on Dec. 2. The fighting, however, was far lighter than that which has characterized the rest of the bloody civil war, which has killed nearly 400,000 people since 2014. Most of the fighting between the PLC and STC was characterized by one side or the other melting away against the other’s advance — first the PLC, then the STC, with Saudi airstrikes doing much of the killing.
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The STC stood little chance against the PLC and Saudis after the UAE complied with Riyadh’s ultimatum to withdraw all its forces from Yemen late last month.
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The renewed fighting came after Saudi Crown Prince MBS’s visit to D.C. last month, when he met with Trump to strengthen defense and economic ties, and to discuss regional stability.
The Saudis accused the UAE of ordering the invasion into Hadramawt and al Mahra in response to MBS asking the U.S. to ramp up pressure on the UAE in the other proxy war the Middle Eastern countries are fighting, in Sudan.
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The developments over the past week indicate that Abu Dhabi has miscalculated badly. After a year of wins, Abu Dhabi begins 2026 with an embarrassing defeat.
Though the PLC is now in control of nearly two-thirds of Yemen’s territory, the overall civil war with the Houthis shows no signs of ending any time soon. The Houthis still control a clear majority of the population, and the belligerents have shown no signs of renewing fighting against the Iran-backed group.