The sudden death of Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who represented California‘s most conservative district, has challenged House Republicans’ incredibly narrow majority, complicating the passage of President Donald Trump’s 2026 legislative agenda.
LaMalfa’s death leaves House Republicans with a 218-213 advantage, giving Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) very little wiggle room on party-line votes where all members are present and voting. The GOP can afford no more than two defections.
California Elections Code states that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) must proclaim a special election within 14 days of a vacancy in the House, and that the special election must take place between 126 days and 140 days.
Some are urging Newsom, who has 2028 presidential aspirations, to take his time, stretching out the process as long as possible to exact political payback for Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s delay of a special election for late Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner’s seat until Nov. 4, 2025. Abbott was heavily criticized by Democrats who accused him of dragging it out for the political benefit of Republicans. Abbott, a Trump ally, cited Harris County’s “election failures” as the reason it took so long to hold a special election. Democrats are also pointing to Johnson, who waited 50 days before swearing in Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ). Johnson cited procedural issues during a government shutdown, but Democrats accused him of delaying her swearing-in for partisan reasons.
Tim Miller, a political strategist and host of The Bulwark Podcast, suggested on social media that Newsom should take a page from Abbott and Johnson’s playbook.
“RIP to Rep. Lamalfa,” he posted on X. “Newsom should use the Mike Johnson/Greg Abbott standard and stall as long as humanely possible on the special election to fill the seat.” Democratic commentator Kaivan Shroff told the Washington Examiner that Newsom was politically bound to offer at least some resistance.
“Newsom has clearly picked his lane as the counterpuncher to MAGA,” he said. “With that in mind, the natural progression of his fight fire with fire ethos would be to copy Johnson/Abbott and stall as long as possible. In some ways he has boxed himself in as ‘the fighter’ so he can’t pull any punches without upsetting his strongest supporters.”
Political analyst David McLaughlin warned against using LaMalfa’s death to “score cheap political gains.”
“Hopefully, Governor Newsom will not follow the path of Texas Governor Greg Abbott and will hold a special election in a timely manner,” he told the Washington Examiner. “The fact that the people of Texas’ 18th District will go 11 months without congressional representation is a pitiful example for a democracy.”
Strategist Jeff Le, a former deputy Cabinet secretary to former California Gov. Jerry Brown, said he didn’t expect Newsom to delay setting a special election timeline.
“However, elections are expensive, and I could see him calling for a primary election and runoff election to calendar coincide with the June 2026 primary in an effort to save the taxpayers’ money and resources,” Le told the Washington Examiner.
Newsom had not made an announcement on a special election by midday Tuesday but issued a statement on LaMalfa’s passing.
“Congressman Doug LaMalfa was a devoted public servant who deeply loved his country, his state, and the communities he represented,” the governor said in a statement. “While we often approached issues from different perspectives, he fought every day for the people of California with conviction and care. He will be deeply missed.” Newsom has ordered that flags at the state Capitol and the Capitol Annex Swing Space be flown at half-staff.
LaMalfa was elected to the California Assembly in 2002, the state Senate in 2010, and then the U.S. House in 2012. He is the fourth House lawmaker to die during the 119th Congress, following Democratic Reps. Turner, Raul Grijalva, and Gerry Connolly of Virginia.
In a special election, Republicans are favored to win LaMalfa’s 1st Congressional District, which sweeps south from the Oregon border almost to Sacramento. It covers the rice fields, walnut and almond orchards of the Sacramento Valley to the forested foothills of the Sierra Nevada and the Cascade Range. The vast majority of the residents are farming families who have harvested the land for decades. The rural district is among the most conservative and least diverse in the state. Trump won it by 25 percentage points in 2024.
The odds that LaMalfa’s former district will remain Republican after November’s midterm elections are low. LaMalfa was one of five California Republican representatives who were targeted by Democrats last year during a redistricting blitz that redrew the state’s congressional maps to favor Democrats. Proposition 50 was pitched by Newsom as a counter to Texas redrawing its map to give Republicans the edge at Trump’s request. After Proposition 50 passed, LaMalfa’s district was split into two.
The new 1st District was redrawn to include Democratic voters in Santa Rosa through Chico, a university town, to the Nevada border.
LaMalfa told the Washington Examiner in October that he worried his constituents would have no one in Congress looking out for their interests if a Democrat were to take over.
CALIFORNIA REP. DOUG LAMALFA DIES AT 65
Longtime California political expert Garry South told the Washington Examiner that the “winner of that special election, if a Republican, had better enjoy their time in Congress, because they will only be there for a few short months.”