The 2026 elections may still be almost a year away, but the money is already pouring in, with new data from AdImpact showing that nearly 20% of all political advertisements aired in 2025 were actually aimed at the midterm elections.
AdImpact, which tracks political spending across broadcast, cable, and streaming television, recorded a historic $1.87 billion in aired political advertisements in 2025, the highest off-year total on record. Much of that money has already concentrated in a small group of marquee contests expected to define the 2026 cycle, led by the Texas Senate race, which alone drew $57.6 million in advertising last year. Georgia’s Senate race follows with $26.1 million, while California’s open governor’s race has seen $20.5 million. Maine’s Senate race has reached $15.3 million, Illinois’s Senate contest $14.7 million, and Kentucky’s Senate race is close behind at $14 million.
In Georgia and Maine, spending largely centered on incumbents, while in Texas, advertisers were already backing Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) before he had launched his Senate bid. Kentucky, Illinois, and California also emerged early as targets as campaigns and self-funded candidates began positioning themselves.
The partisan breakdown of spending varies sharply by race. Texas and Kentucky have been dominated by Republican advertising tied to competitive GOP primaries, while Illinois and California have so far seen exclusively Democratic spending in their open contests. In California, billionaire activist Tom Steyer quickly poured $16 million into the governor’s race, while Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) has spent $14.4 million in Illinois.
The Georgia and Maine Senate races, both rated as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, show a more competitive balance, though Republicans currently hold modest spending advantages of $2.6 million in Georgia and $2.8 million in Maine.
The sheer scale of off-year spending is also breaking long-standing norms. Before this year, only presidential primaries had ever topped $100 million in off-year advertising, but 2025 blew past that benchmark, according to AdImpact. New Jersey’s governor’s race alone saw $207 million in advertisements, while California’s Proposition 50 drew $142 million.
Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race shattered records earlier this year with $85.6 million in spending, and while Virginia’s governor’s race and New York City’s mayoral contest did not set new highs, both posted totals similar to their 2021 races. Texas’s Senate contest, meanwhile, has already become the most expensive nonpresidential race ever recorded in an off-year.
Republican strategist Dennis Lennox said the surge reflects a shift away from persuasion and toward base turnout, even as campaign spending continues to escalate.
“Every cycle since 2012 has seemingly broken spending records, even though elections are no longer about persuasion,” Lennox said. “We’re spending more money than ever to talk almost exclusively to people who’ve already made up their minds.”
Lennox said campaigns that once blanketed the airwaves to sway undecided voters are now focused on mobilizing supporters, warning that early television can define a race only if spending is sustained.
“If you can’t afford to stay on the air for the duration of the cycle, you’re just lighting money on fire,” he said.
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He said the pattern is already playing out in several 2026 contests driven by competitive primaries, particularly in Texas and Kentucky.
Issue advertising has surged alongside candidate spending, reaching $651 million in 2025, nearly matching 2022 levels and far exceeding the $408 million aired in 2024. The early surge suggests the battles for 2026 are already heating up on the airwaves, long before voters head to the polls.