The year 2025 saw some of the biggest overhauls of the international order in modern history, a process destined to favor some countries and disfavor others.
President Donald Trump spent the first year of his second administration upending the existing world order, shifting alliances and power dynamics across the globe. Nearly all of the winners and losers on this list had their fortunes or misfortunes tied to this reorganization in some way.
Here are the countries that won and lost the most in 2025:
Winners
Pakistan
Pakistan ended 2024 in an increasingly perilous situation. It was already on the outs with its main ally since the Cold War, the United States, which seemed to increasingly favor its rapidly growing rival to the east. The central Asian nation ended 2025 in a vastly different position.
The zenith of Pakistan’s good fortunes came in May, during its brief war with India. The two longtime rivals traded drone and air strikes against each other, culminating in one of the biggest dogfights in modern warfare. During the massive air battle, Pakistan became the first country in history to shoot down the French-made Rafale fighter jet, which marked the first time the Chinese-made J-10 downed another aircraft. Five Indian Air Force jets were downed by Pakistani jets, at the cost of none of its own. A ceasefire took effect shortly after, leaving Islamabad in a position where it could claim victory. Islamabad’s liberal thanking of Trump for helping to negotiate the ceasefire, going so far as to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize, played a key role in ingratiating itself with the new commander in chief.
Field Marshal Asim Munir, the chief of staff of the Pakistani Army, traveled to Washington after the war and struck a close relationship with Trump. The president has referred to Munir as his “favorite field marshal.” Trump’s favorite new field marshal then faced little pushback from Washington when he was granted sweeping powers later in the year.
Even one of Pakistan’s low points, an increase in terrorist attacks, had a silver lining. The common cause of counterterrorism revived some cooperation with the U.S., and the armed conflict with Afghanistan stripped Islamabad of the long-running taboo of having supported the Taliban.
United Arab Emirates
The UAE was boosted by a friendly relationship with Trump, striking a number of business deals. The new realpolitik view of Washington helped the UAE play a more proactive role in different conflicts without inviting significant human rights abuse allegations.
The most notable conflict the UAE was involved in was the Sudanese Civil War, in which it was credited with single-handedly turning the tide.
After the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces lost the Battle of Khartoum in March, it seemed to most observers that it was only a matter of time before the Sudanese Armed Forces retook the rest of the country and declared victory. The UAE, which provided substantial support to the RSF throughout the war, drastically boosted its support beginning in March, swinging the fortunes of war in the paramilitary group’s favor.
With an influx of weapons, cash, drones, military hardware, training, and even mercenaries, the RSF went on the offensive, turning its focus on its western stronghold of Darfur. In late September, it took the city of El Fasher, the final SAF stronghold in Darfur, effectively splitting the country in half between the two. One of the worst massacres of the 21st century occurred in the aftermath, with RSF supporters murdering anywhere from thousands to tens of thousands of civilians. Despite U.N. condemnation and the widespread acknowledgement of the UAE’s role, its vital role in the global economy prevented any concrete backlash against it.
The UAE also flexed its muscles in Yemen. Three and 1/2 years after the civil war ended in a ceasefire, the conflict suddenly burst open once again in December, when the UAE-backed Southern Transition Council blitzed across eastern Yemen, going from a small enclave to controlling the entire east of Yemen. The internationally-recognized and Saudi-backed Yemeni government retreated almost without a fight, and the Saudi-trained National Shield Forces disintegrated.
The UAE further proved its nickname as the “Little Sparta,” with its growing influence set to continue in 2026.
Rwanda
In 2025, Rwanda earned its long-held nickname of “the Prussia of Africa,” with its much smaller, highly disciplined military routing the far larger Democratic Republic of Congo armed forces. The east-central African nation effectively has a country nearly 90 times its size at its mercy.
The Rwanda-backed M23 rebel movement and the Rwandan Defense Forces began the year with their greatest triumph in years, routing a multinational force several times their size and seizing the key city of Goma, capital of the mineral-rich North Kivu province. It took control of its next provincial capital, Bukavu, the following month, and spent the rest of the year gobbling up more territory.
M23 now controls an area about half the size of Rwanda, but this territory includes some of the richest land in terms of natural resources on Earth. The mineral wealth significantly boosted Rwanda’s economy, while international backlash has not invited crippling sanctions.
Washington stepped in to broker a peace agreement, hoping to end not just immediate hostilities but the wider Rwanda-Congo conflict itself. Rwanda was criticized for allegedly not fulfilling its obligations under the treaty, similar to the Congo; however, this lack of enforcement did not isolate Kigali, Rwanda’s capital, or elicit significant pushback. Rwandan President Paul Kagame ended the year by traveling to Washington in December to heap praise on Trump, likely winning further favor.
El Salvador
The government of Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele’s accomplishments on domestic matters have become well-known, a trend that continued into 2025 with record-low crime. However, its biggest gain was on the international level, with Bukele finally securing the long-desired recognition from the U.S.
As Bukele embraced his image as an international right-wing darling throughout the early 2020s, unsurprisingly, the left-wing Biden administration was not as thrilled. However, relief came almost immediately when Trump took power, with Washington’s tone shifting to one of praise.
Most famously, and infamously among many, was the deal between Trump and Bukele to send over 280 suspected gang members to CECOT, the high-security prison that has become the symbol of Trump’s harsh immigration crackdown. Most of the suspected gang members were linked to the main organized crime target of Trump’s second administration, the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua. The move was widely decried among Trump’s critics due to the brutal conditions of the prison, but praised by Trump and Bukele’s defenders as a harsh new handling of illegal immigration and crime.
Whatever the case, the deal and Bukele’s following triumphant visit to Washington confirmed his status as a right-wing favorite in the Western Hemisphere, with all the prestige that entails.
The U.S.’s newfound support for San Salvador expanded into support for what activists have condemned as democratic backsliding. The State Department voiced support for the El Salvador legislature’s decision to allow Bukele to run for election in perpetuity, reasoning that it was a decision up to the country and not the U.S.’s business.
Losers
Iran
Iran limped out of 2024, experiencing its worst year in recent history, with its feared Axis of Resistance having been thoroughly gutted by Israel. Despite its hopes that it could catch its breath in 2025, the opposite proved to be the case, with Iran ending the year in an even worse place.
In June, Israel fought its first direct war against Iran in its history, launching a series of blistering airstrikes across the country that killed nearly the entire Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps senior command, killed the heads of its nuclear science program, vastly degraded its ballistic missile capabilities, and damaged its nuclear program. The coup de grace was delivered soon after, with U.S. B-2 stealth bombers dropping bunker-buster bombs on the deeply entrenched Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant, the first ever U.S. strike against Iran. Though Iran was able to hit Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities with ballistic missiles, piercing its advanced air defense network, Iran emerged from the 12 Day War as the clear loser. It spent much of the rest of the year trying to recover.
Outside the geopolitical front, Iran also faced growing existential internal problems.
The worst of these was the increasingly apocalyptic water crisis gripping Iran, as unsustainable water management practices began catching up to Tehran. Tens of millions have been affected, particularly the 14 million residents of Tehran’s metropolitan area. After months of pessimistic rhetoric, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian definitively announced in November that Iran had to move its capital, stripped of all other options.
Iran enters 2026 with no ready options for how to fix any of its crippling problems, which are only set to grow worse in the coming year.
Democratic Republic of Congo
The Congo has long been known for dysfunction, and 2025 saw the culmination of decades of this. It began the year with one of the worst humiliations in modern warfare, when the far smaller Rwanda-backed rebels completely routed its army, itself backed by an international coalition, including U.N. troops, and seized one of the Congo’s largest cities.
M23 rebels continued to take more and more territory throughout the year. Congo’s already weak government proved unsuccessful with its contingency measures. Even its direct appeals to Trump, offering lucrative mineral deals, failed to halt M23’s advance, with ceasefire deals failing to hold so far.
A December peace summit with Kagame and Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi in Washington failed to affect the intensity of the combat.
Its international image was not helped when crowds in Kinshasa began rioting following the loss of Goma, storming the embassies of France, Rwanda, Belgium, and attempting to storm those of the U.S., Uganda, Kenya, and the Netherlands.
Armenia
Armenia spent 2025 trying to navigate an increasingly isolated international position and grappling with domestic scandals.
Progress toward a peace deal was only made after Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan agreed to several major concessions, while Azerbaijan continued to hold nearly all the cards. The terms of the agreement were widely viewed in Armenia as a capitulation, all at the cost of not even securing a lasting peace, as Baku continued to demand amendments to Armenia’s constitution to remove language about the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region — a demand viewed by many Armenians as a nonstarter, as it would require a favorable vote in a plebiscite changing the constitution.
Pashinyan continued his alienation of Armenia’s traditional protector, Russia, and failed to secure the U.S. to take its place
On the domestic front, Pashinyan, who boasted the impressive feat of winning an election after losing a major war in 2020, saw his popularity collapse. He came to power in a democratic revolution, but became viewed as increasingly authoritarian, exemplified by a scandal where he tried to crack down on the Armenian Church, one of the most treasured institutions at home and among the diaspora. His campaign against the church saw many critical priests arrested and carried off by armed, masked security forces, scenes widely decried over their poor optics.
Pashinyan fell into a series of gaffes during the dispute, including an incident where he earned international headlines by offering to show his genitals to the Patriarch of the Armenian Apostolic Church, Karekin II.
Pashinyan will likely be ousted in the elections this year, which are set to deepen the growing dysfunction of the divided nation.
Ukraine
Ukraine has seen its fortunes wax and wane throughout the nearly four-year war with Russia, peaking during the first year when daring counteroffensives helped facilitate the Russian Army’s retreat from all of northern Ukraine, most of Kharkiv Oblast, and the capital of Kherson Oblast. The regrouping of the Russian Army led to a steady decline in fortunes, following Ukraine’s main counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, which failed in the summer of 2023.
Undoubtedly, 2025 marked the worst year for Ukraine so far. Despite continuing to inflict heavy Russian casualties and dealing some economic damage to Russia through drone strikes on its oil industry, Russia held the momentum on the battlefield the entire year. Most notably, 2025 marked the first year of the war during which Ukraine was unable to mount a major counteroffensive, showcasing the massively degraded capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces. The Russian military began to outpace its rival in most major respects, most importantly in drone technology.
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Russia also maximized its aerial campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, routinely launching hundreds of drones and missiles per night against factories, logistics centers, economic targets, and the energy sector. The results of the year’s strikes showed the degradation of Ukrainian air defenses, with significant numbers of missiles and drones repeatedly breaching its air defenses.
To top it all off, 2025 saw increased uncertainty about Western support for Ukraine, with Trump shifting the U.S.’s stance from enthusiastic ally to neutral arbiter. U.S. aid for Ukraine has plummeted, a massive corruption scandal damaged the commitment of its European allies, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s volatile relationship with Trump put Ukrainians on edge. These dynamics will likely continue into 2026.