House Democratic and Republican leaders are inching closer to the expiration of Obamacare subsidies at the end of the year, and both parties have decided that doing nothing is better than reaching a bipartisan deal.
The House is set to vote on the Republicans’ Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act this week, a buffet-style approach to addressing healthcare by combining provisions from previous bills that have previously passed the lower chamber. It is largely expected to serve as a messaging bill and will likely not become law before the Affordable Care Act subsidies expire on Dec. 31.
The two parties have been engaged in a tug of war over how best to address healthcare since Democrats made it their central argument during the government shutdown. Neither has been willing to support the other’s demands, leading Congress likely toward an impasse during the final week of the 2025 session.
Democratic leaders have issued a scathing rebuke of the Lower Health Care Premiums for All Americans Act, calling it “unserious,” which signals that they will not encourage their caucus to vote for the bill. Meanwhile, Republican leadership has been vocal in stating that they do not support Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’s (D-NY) three-year extension of the ACA subsidies, instead arguing that their bill will provide “clear, responsible alternatives” to lower healthcare costs.
Bipartisanship appeared to be on the horizon last week, after centrist Republicans and leadership worked out a deal to amend the legislation and extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies for two years with some reforms. GOP leadership aides told reporters on Friday that they expected a vote on an amendment to extend the Obamacare subsidies to come this week.
But that bipartisanship appears to be short-lived as the deal between leaders and GOP members led by Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) is allegedly falling apart due to leadership arguing that members would need to find healthcare offsets to pay for the extension, according to multiple reports. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told reporters on Monday that a final decision had not yet been made on whether an amendment would be allowed on renewing the subsidies.
If leadership and rank-and-file members can’t come to an agreement, the centrist lawmakers will have to find their own way to get a vote to extend the tax credits. To do so, they will have to present a version similar to Fitzpatrick’s bill to the Rules Committee, offering it as an amendment to extend the subsidies by two years.
Given that the Rules Committee is largely a cudgel of leadership and has conservatives like Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Ralph Norman (R-SC), it is unlikely their proposal will pass.
This could push lawmakers to a crossroads. Given that there are 12 Republicans signed onto Fitzpatrick’s discharge petition, and 11 Republicans have joined the petition led by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ), there are a few options for the GOP.
Ball in Democrats’ court?
One option for Democrats is to band together and join either of the discharge petitions. Doing so would force a vote on a bill to extend the subsidies in some shape or form. Gottheimer’s extends the ACA subsidies for one year and sets up for a vote on a longer extension or reform process in the second year.
If all Democrats signed on to one of the petitions, it would be enough to reach the 218-signature threshold. But leadership has dragged its feet on wholeheartedly endorsing either petition, including the one led by their own Democratic caucus member.
Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA), the top Democrat on the Ways and Means Committee, said in a statement Saturday that anything less than a clean three-year extension of the subsidies is a “waste of time.” On Monday, Jeffries said he reviewed the discharge petitions.
“We have a position: a straight three-year extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits,” the minority leader said.
He dodged repeated questions on whether he would explicitly tell his caucus not to sign onto the discharge petitions.
Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) predicted that “anything” that extends the Affordable Care Act subsidies will “ultimately get enough support,” if it’s able to make it on the schedule or through the Rules Committee for a vote.
“For me, it is, and has always been, about the 32,000 people in my district that need us to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies. So I’m supporting any and every attempt to do that, because they come first,” Landsman told the Washington Examiner.
Another option for centrist Republicans is to join Jeffries’s three-year extension of the ACA. All Democrats have signed onto Jeffries’s discharge petition, so only four Republicans are needed to reach the 218 threshold.
“We are going to continue to reach our hand out and say, ‘Come join us. Four of you, who seem to now be very concerned about what is happening in their communities as they see their political numbers failing.’ …The [American people] deserve so much better than what they are getting from this Republican Party,” Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) said.
However, centrist Republicans, although they favor a smaller extension of the tax credits, are not budging on signing the three-year extension at this time and say it is up to Democratic leadership to make a move.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), who has signed both Fitzpatrick and Gottheimer’s petitions, said he’s not supportive of a blanket, three-year extension.
“I don’t like it,” Bacon said, arguing some of the provisions of the subsidies are “very wasteful.”
“Why should somebody earning $600,000 get these tax credits, and why do we want a third of all the tax credit money, not go to individuals’ premiums? That’s what’s going on right now. …I think Hakeem Jeffries and his team should get on one of the two discharges we have, because we deal with both those issues,” Bacon added.
“So if we’re going to do an extension, it’s gotta be a reform plan.”
Lawler said he thinks Democrats are wavering in their support for the petitions for political reasons.
“We have two discharges that already have more than enough Republican signatures on them, and that’s really up to the Democratic leadership, whether or not they truly want an extension or they want the issue,” Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) told reporters Monday. “Based on many comments they’ve made, certainly internally, they seem to want the issue, not the actual extension.”
A three-year extension, proposed by Democrats, and a competing Republican proposal failed last week in the Senate. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said Monday there’s not enough support to have a “straight-up extension” of the tax credits without some significant reforms, essentially putting Capitol Hill at a standstill.
“So how is it an option when it can’t get through the Senate?” Lawler asked.
Wednesday’s House vote comes as a bipartisan group of senators makes a last-ditch attempt to negotiate a subsidy extension. Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Bernie Moreno (R-OH), both of whom support a two-year subsidy extension with reforms, organized a Monday evening meeting with a large, ideologically diverse group of senators to discuss what a Senate deal might look like.
Leaving the meeting, senators conceded that reaching a deal before the end of the year would be difficult. Still, they described their conversations as a step in the right direction, following the Senate’s failure last week to pass a Democratic-backed extension.
“It seems like the calendar precludes getting something done this week,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), the author of a competing GOP bill that lets the subsidies lapse. “But still, a commitment to work together is a lot of progress.”
Lauren Green contributed to this report.