The Trump administration warned that Europe faces “civilizational erasure” due to mass migration and other political issues in the United States’s new National Security Strategy.
The NSS sent shockwaves around the world, serving as a dramatic departure from previous directives. One of the most drastic changes from the last NSS, crafted during the Biden administration, was its language on immigration, warning that it posed an existential threat to European and Western civilization.
The section on Europe began by acknowledging its decline in terms of proportion of the world economy but noted that it was “eclipsed” by the “real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure.”
“The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating strife, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, cratering birthrates, and loss of national identities and self-confidence,” the NSS reads.
The document portrayed these unparalleled demographic changes as a threat to the U.S. as well, questioning their reliability as allies if current trends continue.
“Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less,” it reads. “As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies. Many of these nations are currently doubling down on their present path. We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation.”
The document suggests that the changing demographics, replacing indigenous Europeans with people from the Middle East, Africa, and elsewhere, would change the fabric of the nation.
“Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European,” the NSS reads. “As such, it is an open question whether they will view their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO charter.”
The outline was consistent with the NSS’s priorities — it put its No. 1 priority as ending the era of mass immigration. It also undertook a move significantly departing from previous strategies by advocating support for its “political allies” in Europe, referring to right-wing parties against the prevailing consensus.
“American diplomacy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations’ individual character and history,” the document reads. “America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism.”
It also noted that the U.S. is “understandably, sentimentally attached to the European continent — and, of course, to Britain and Ireland.”
The NSS weaved together domestic politics with international, arguing that Trump’s social agenda at home was a critical component of creating a stable and dynamic world order.
“We want to maintain the United States’ unrivaled ‘soft power’ through which we exercise positive influence throughout the world that furthers our interests,” it reads. “In doing so, we will be unapologetic about our country’s past and present while respectful of other countries’ differing religions, cultures, and governing systems. ‘Soft power’ that serves America’s true national interest is effective only if we believe in our country’s inherent greatness and decency.”
The document has already triggered an alarm from some European allies. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said the U.S. would remain Germany’s “most important ally” in NATO but that this alliance “is focused on addressing security policy issues.”
“I believe questions of freedom of expression or the organisation of our free societies do not belong [in the strategy], in any case, at least when it comes to Germany,” Wadephul said.
The Trump administration has been overt about pressuring its European allies to halt mass immigration.
The State Department issued a flurry of cables to U.S. embassies throughout Europe and the broader Western world last month, instructing them to spearhead antimigration advocacy in their host countries while urging governments to “positively respond to their citizens’ growing discontent related to unmitigated migration to address risks of political instability.”
“We encourage your government to ensure that policies protect your citizens from the negative social impacts of mass migration, including displacement, sexual assault, and the breakdown of law and order,” one communique to a Western government reads.
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The NSS also reflects Vice President JD Vance’s famous speech at Munich in February, during which he chastised the U.S.’s European allies over their policies not in alignment with the White House.
“The threat that I worry the most about vis-a-vis Europe is not Russia, it’s not China, it’s not any other external actor,” Vance said. “And what I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.”