Washington Examiner’s Joe Concha said a closer-than-expected special election in Tennessee could be a bellwether for the 2026 midterm elections, especially if the Democratic candidate wins on the issue of affordability.
Tennessee’s Seventh District will hold a special election on Tuesday to fill the House seat held by former Republican Rep. Mark Green before he left Congress in July. While President Donald Trump won this district by over 22%, Tuesday’s race has become much closer than anticipated, with Republican candidate Matt Van Epps just 2% ahead of Democrat Aftyn Behn in a recent survey.
Behn told CNN the race is competitive because voters feel Republicans haven’t delivered on affordability, “despite the commitment from the Trump administration.” Concha contended that voters in the “big red district” need to be reminded that affordability was “taken away” during the Biden administration.
“It was Democrats, when they were in power, Stu, inflation jumped to north of 9%. It was Democrats who unanimously voted for the Inflation Reduction Act, which obviously did nothing to reduce inflation, and it added massively to our national debt,” Concha said on Fox Business Network’s Varney & Co.
“Either way, if this candidate, Aftyn Behn, is successful and wins this race, as [Fox News senior correspondent] Jonathan Serrie just pointed out, in a district that Donald Trump won by 22 points, that will spell doom for the Republican Party in 2026 if they can’t win here, especially if they end up losing on an issue in terms of affordability that Democrats show they clearly don’t know how to deliver on,” Concha said on Monday.
Concha also addressed Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin’s assessment that his party no longer has an issue with young male voters, citing the party’s performance in recent off-year elections. Concha countered Martin by saying the Democratic Party’s issue with young men is “very real,” and “authenticity matters” with a party that is “very overscripted.”
Concha acknowledged that Democrats are “on a roll” in recent elections in areas such as New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia. As of right now, he concluded the Democratic Party has “momentum,” whereas Republicans are currently “a rudderless ship.”
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Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), who is running in Tennessee’s gubernatorial election next year, didn’t predict a large victory for Van Epps in Tuesday’s election, but did say he would ultimately be the victor. Trump also gave his attention to the race on Truth Social, urging voters to support “one of the best Candidates we’ve ever had.”
Recent polling data indicate the Democratic Party will need to focus on more than its sweeping wins in November to accomplish a blue wave in 2026.