The Georgia GOP Senate primary has turned into the intraparty fight Republicans hoped to avoid after Gov. Brian Kemp passed on the race. Reps. Buddy Carter (R-GA) and Mike Collins (R-GA) and former Tennessee coach Derek Dooley are locked in an escalating clash that many believe will continue until President Donald Trump decides to step in.
The three Republicans are competing for the chance to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) in 2026, and no dynamic looms larger than Trump’s endorsement. All three candidates are openly courting his support, aware that it could reshape the race overnight, even as the contest grows more chaotic by the week.
Ethics Committee referral rattles race
That turmoil deepened Friday when the House Ethics Committee announced it is reviewing a matter involving Collins and his top aide Brandon Phillips. The panel said the case was formally transmitted on Oct. 7 and that it needs more time to review the allegations, adding that an extension and the public naming of a member does not indicate any violation or judgment. It was unclear what the investigation involved. The committee plans to decide on next steps by Jan. 5.
Collins’s team quickly sought to dismiss the Ethics Committee referral. “This bogus referral is nothing but a desperate and baseless attack by Rep. Collins’ political opponents,” spokesperson Corbin Keown said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner. “We look forward to the Ethics Committee completing its work and this frivolous complaint being dismissed.”
A Republican strategist familiar with the race said the development could shift the contest. “It could change things depending on what it’s about,” the strategist said, noting concerns that Collins is a risky nominee with “too much hanging out there” and “dirty laundry” that could dog Republicans next fall.
The scrutiny also renewed attention on Phillips, a longtime figure in Georgia GOP politics whose past has periodically drawn controversy, including his 2016 resignation as Trump’s Georgia state director after earlier criminal history resurfaced and a 2024 accusation that he was involved in an altercation at a South Georgia Trump campaign office opening.
Ad wars accelerate
The Ethics Committee announcement hits as the primary’s ad wars are growing more aggressive. The first major escalation came on Nov. 6, when a nonprofit aligned with Kemp released an ad criticizing Carter, Collins and Ossoff over the government shutdown.
Collins blasted the spot on X, questioning why “the governor’s nonprofit 501(c)(4) would be using dark money to attack Republican members of the Georgia delegation” and arguing it echoed Democrats’ messaging on the shutdown. Senate GOP campaign officials privately fumed that the ad undercut their national message.
Five days later, on Veterans Day, Collins’ campaign launched one of its sharpest attacks on Dooley, highlighting the former coach’s admission that “I probably went 20 years where I didn’t vote” and accusing him of refusing to vote for Trump. The narrator concludes: “Derek Dooley never votes, never wins, Never Trump.”
Dooley fired back on X, writing that “Using Veterans Day to score political points tells you everything you need to know about typical politicians,” and noting that he voted for Trump in 2024 and is “focused on serving and delivering results for the people of Georgia.”
Shortly after the Veterans Day exchange, Collins’ operation drew new scrutiny with an with an ad built around a doctored clip of Ossoff, a digital manipulation that caught the attention of Republicans statewide and prompted a rare public critique from Dooley’s team.
Trump the ‘biggest piece on the board’
A source close to the Collins campaign maintained that none of the back-and-forth changes the underlying dynamic: Trump remains the single most decisive factor. “A Trump endorsement is the biggest piece on the board that hasn’t moved,” the person said. “When you move your biggest piece, you get your biggest result.”
They argued that endorsing sooner would produce “a cleaner race and a stronger nominee,” while waiting risks delivering a candidate “who has burned through cash and spent months beating up fellow Republicans.”
From Carter’s side, one Republican aligned with his campaign argued the contrast in the field is becoming clearer. “There has been one out of the three campaigns that hasn’t been a mess so far,” the person said. “You have one campaign under ethics investigation. You have another campaign getting denounced by national Republicans for blaming Trump conservatives on the shutdown. And then you have a third campaign who’s just been head down, raising money, talking to voters.”
The Dooley team pushed back on the idea that the infighting has fundamentally reshaped the race. A source familiar with the campaign said voters are not yet fully engaged and emphasized that Dooley posted the largest third-quarter haul in the field, $1.9 million.
“Everything is pretty standard for a Republican primary at this point,” the source said, adding that public polling is too limited to be predictive and noting that the shutdown-related ad drawing attention “was not our ad.”
Republican strategists outside the campaigns are divided over whether a drawn-out fight helps or hurts the eventual nominee. Ford O’Connell, a GOP strategist based in Florida, said Trump world is assessing which candidate is best positioned to unseat Ossoff.
“Knocking off one of the administration’s top targets, they’re going to take their time to determine who best can do that,” O’Connell said.
A Georgia GOP operative with Senate-race experience argued that Republicans can’t afford to let the primary drift.
“I get the argument that primaries can be healthy,” the operative said. “But the longer this goes on, the more baggage everybody picks up. If Trump wants the strongest nominee against Ossoff, he probably needs to move sooner rather than later.”
National Republicans privately concede the race has turned into exactly the scenario they hoped to avoid once Kemp declined to run. Yet GOP leadership is making it clear they won’t intervene. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) told Punchbowl News this week that “until we have a nominee, we’re not able to engage fully in that race,” effectively leaving the fight to continue through the May 2026 primary. “Primaries tend to get competitive,” he said. “But we still think in Georgia, once the dust settles there and the smoke clears, that that’s gonna be a really good opportunity for us.”
Recent polling gives a clearer snapshot of the race’s instability. According to the Atlanta Journal‑Constitution survey conducted in mid October, Collins leads with 30%, Carter posts 20%, and Dooley registers 12%, while 38% of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided. Meanwhile, the RealClearPolitics average shows Collins at 28.3%, Carter at 18.7%, and Dooley at 12.0%, placing Collins ahead by about 9.6 points.
Fundraising reflects a competitive but uneven financial picture. Dooley posted the strongest Q3 haul with $1.9 million, while Collins raised $1.1 million, plus $800,000 more through his victory fund, and Carter brought in $940,000.
Carter currently has the largest war chest of the GOP primary, ending September with $3.9 million cash on hand, compared to $2.3 million for Collins and $1.7 million for Dooley. Ossoff, by contrast, reported a massive $12 million quarter and now holds $21 million in cash on hand.
Waiting on Trump
A GOP insider close to the White House said Trump’s team is watching Georgia more closely after Democrats flipped two Public Service Commission seats earlier this month, the party’s first statewide constitutional victories in two decades.
“People forget how volatile Georgia is right now,” the insider said. “Those PSC races were the real tell. Affordability is the top issue, and the commission touches the cost of everything. When Democrats win two seats with more than 60 percent of the vote, it makes the administration stop and reassess.”
The person added that Trump world is “very likely” to endorse but is taking extra time to determine “which candidate gives Republicans the best shot at beating Ossoff.”
GEORGIA REPUBLICANS NAVIGATE THREE PRIMARIES AT ONCE IN HIGH-STAKES SENATE RACE
Whether Trump endorses early, waits until next year, or sits out entirely, GOP officials agree on one point, the trajectory of the race, and the party’s chances of defeating Ossoff, may hinge on that decision more than anything the campaigns do on their own.
Democrats view the escalating feud as a gift, saying the brawl has left every Republican contender exposed. In a statement provided to the Washington Examiner, Devon Cruz, a senior communications adviser for the Democratic Party of Georgia, said the GOP primary has devolved into “a very ugly slug fest.”
“No matter who makes it out of this messy and chaotic primary, the eventual nominee will be in extremely rough shape for a general election,” Cruz added.