(The Center Square) – North Carolina is considering tighter standards for approving new charter school openings after enrollment in some schools has fallen 40% below projections.
School charter school sponsors in some cases have “unrealistic optimism” over how many students will enroll, Ashley Logue, executive director of the state’s Office of Charter Schools, told The Center Square.
“It’s one of those things you can’t necessarily measure,” she said of a school’s opening enrollment numbers.
In previous years, the number of students enrolled over the summer was usually an accurate indicator of how many students would attend in the fall.
But now with more choices for students, the final enrollment numbers in charter schools are trending lower in some cases, Logue said. The appropriation of $463 million to the Opportunity Scholarship program became law a year ago in November when the General Assembly rejected a gubernatorial veto. This move cleared a waiting list of about 55,000 students.
Universal school choice – North Carolina became the 10th state to implement, and first without a state government Republican trifecta – was enacted Oct. 3, 2023, as part of the 2023 Appropriations Act. Also known as the state budget, it became law after a 10-day period without then-Gov. Roy Cooper signing it. The biennial spending plan was also tied to expansion of Medicaid.
“What we’re seeing is that schools are not able to gain the number of students in the summer months as they previously were able to,” Logue told the Charter Review Board. “Schools are really going to have to pivot and figure out ways of managing that.”
With lower enrollment comes less state funding, which means a charter school opening with fewer students than expected could face financial troubles, Logue said.
In 2023, one charter school, the School of the Arts for Boys Academy in Chatham County, had to close halfway through its first year after its enrollment dropped below the required state minimum of 80. On average, charter schools end up enrolling about 13% fewer students than projected but some are as high as 40%-50% less.
Next month, the North Carolina Charter Review Board will discuss tighter standards for granting schools “ready to open” status, Logue said.
The state has 213 charter schools and has been averaging about 15 new applications each year.
Seven charters have been revoked since 2015, with low enrollment an issue in three of those.
Nine schools are scheduled to open in the fall of 2026.
Logue plans to present proposals next month to the Charter Review Board on possible changes to the ready-to-open review standards to account for possible enrollment drops.
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One possible change is moving up the review for final ready-to-open approval from June to May.
“It would give us more time to get those schools in front of you, for you guys to help the schools understand if there are red flags that you are concerned about,” Logue told the Review Board.
Taxpayers provide more money for education than any other part of the state budget. For fiscal year 2024-25, the figure was $17.9 billion.