Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) proved his political muscle with his decisive Proposition 50 win, but the question now is whether he can sustain that influence beyond California and stay relevant, not just through the midterm elections next year but in the crucial run-up to the 2028 presidential race.
Newsom, who has seemingly stolen a march on 2028 hopefuls, spent a chunk of the week in Brazil, standing in unofficially as the representative from America at COP30, the United Nations climate policy summit.
“I’m here because I don’t want the United States of America to be a footnote at this conference,” he said as people cheered and clamored for pictures with him.
Newsom also capitalized on the government shutdown deal that angered some Democrats and held a rally last weekend in Houston, where Rep. Al Green (D-TX) called him “the future president of the United States of America.”
Despite the political evolution Newsom has been carefully engineering for himself, the wave of popularity he is riding isn’t likely to last on its own.
DOJ CHALLENGES CALIFORNIA’S PROP 50 MAP IN ESCALATING FIGHT OVER HOUSE MAJORITY
“Gavin Newsom’s ‘time in the sun’ will sunset rapidly as his last term in the governor’s chair expires,” Matt Klink, president of Klink Campaigns, told the Washington Examiner. “He will need to identify an issue or issues to maintain relevance on a national stage. He won’t have elected office to do so, but I expect him to find ways to stay ‘top of mind.’”
Newsom will need to stay hyperfocused on getting fellow Democrats across the finish line in the midterm elections, establish himself as a standout anti-Trump candidate, and avoid taking the fall for a list of problems still plaguing California. The Democratic governor, who has used a sophomoric social media strategy that involves taunting President Donald Trump at every turn, will have to work hard to maintain his momentum and stay in the spotlight after he is termed out of office next year. He will not have as big a megaphone as he has now, nor will he be able to defend his record as California’s governor on issues such as healthcare, immigration, affordable housing, and crime when they come under scrutiny.
“There is a perception that there are a lot of policy problems” in California, Lincoln Mitchell, a lecturer in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University, told the Washington Examiner. “They’re not being solved. So you’re going to have to weigh his tweets against the attacks that everyone makes about California, some fair, some unfair. And when he’s not governor, he no longer has the ability to sign a landmark housing bill or do a photo op where he’s working in some homeless center to help drug addicts. So by Dec. 31, 2026, when he leaves office, he won’t be able to control his record, and it will get much more scrutiny.”
Mitchell, who has written extensively about California political history and used to play middle school baseball against Newsom, warned that the governor’s “strengths as a politician are often things that are not deep.”
“They are things that sound good in 30 seconds and less impressive in 15 minutes,” he said.
“They are things that sound good in 30 seconds and less impressive in 15 minutes” — Lincoln Mitchell
Ryan Waite, vice president of public affairs at California-based Think Big, told the Washington Examiner that if Newsom wants to “still matter in 2028,” he has to shift from being a viral character to being a credible leader.
“That means keeping the national platform he’s built but dialing back the pure trolling and pairing every appearance with something substantive: a concrete policy idea, a clear contrast on governing, a story about who actually benefited from a decision he made,” Waite said. “Voters are exhausted by politicians who are always online and rarely accountable. If he looks like just another performer in the Trump show, he loses the argument that will define the next presidential election: Who is the adult in the room?”
Newsom will also have to prove to voters that he is trying to build up a fractured Democratic Party and not just his brand.
“He needs to help Democrats win in 2026, especially in the House seats Prop. 50 was designed to affect,” Waite said. “If he’s the one raising money, recruiting candidates, and closing late gaps in swing districts, that’s real capital inside the party. And when he leaves the governor’s office, he can’t disappear to a studio and a book tour. He should anchor himself in one or two big national projects like climate, democracy, or economic mobility, where he can show tangible progress over a couple of years. In short: stay visible, but more substantive. Tie his name to real wins for real people, not just himself.”
Klink added that the candidates Newsom chooses to raise money for could reveal his broader strategy for 2028. Will he support progressives, moderates, or focus on targeted races that allow him to tout a strong “win rate” coming out of the 2026 elections and showcase his national political strength?
Another key way for Newsom to stay in the spotlight is by becoming a regular presence on national political shows.
“He’s an effective communicator and unafraid to take on all challengers — as he showed in his Fox News debate with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL),” Klink said. “Expect him to be a frequent guest and a consistent Trump critic.”
But that strategy only goes so far, Mitchell cautioned. Even as Newsom and his press team ramp up their anti-Trump messaging, there are plenty of photos of Newsom and Trump shaking hands or hugging, images that Democratic primary rivals could weaponize.
“Look, he could win, but there are a lot of pitfalls,” Mitchell said.