After riding a political honeymoon for a year, President Donald Trump’s dominance could be coming to an end as he meets resistance from Senate Republicans over the chamber’s filibuster rule and the Supreme Court over tariffs.
The other coequal branches of the federal government to Trump’s executive, the legislative and judiciary, “are standing up and doing their jobs,” according to Republican strategist Charlie Black.
“Senators do not believe that the end justifies the means [regarding filibuster reform],” Black told the Washington Examiner, before adding of the Supreme Court and tariffs that he suspected “conservatives on the Court are trying to follow the law, regardless of who is president.”
“So, yes, DJT has hit some guardrails,” he said, referring to President Donald Trump.
However, for Claremont McKenna College politics professor and former GOP strategist John Pitney, the resistance from congressional Republicans, at least, is not in response to separation of powers concerns.
“They do worry that Trump’s policies will cost them seats in the House and Senate,” Pitney told the Washington Examiner. “Tariffs are slamming small businesses. [U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement] raids not only generate ugly images but also hurt agriculture and construction. Federal personnel cuts have made it harder for citizens to access services and have jeopardized things such as special education. And people blame the shutdown more on Republicans than Democrats. Trump won a short-term victory of sorts when eight Senate Democrats voted to reopen the government. But that victory will blow up on Republicans unless they reverse the spike in [Affordable Care Act] premiums.”
Simultaneously, congressional Republicans “fear the MAGA base, so they don’t want to go out of their way to antagonize Trump,” Pitney said.
Trump alluded to that dynamic last week after Republicans underperformed in the off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, in addition to New York City, California, and Pennsylvania, with GOP strategists concerned regarding turnout, even the composition of the party’s coalition, following 2029 when the president departs the White House for the second and last time.
“They say that I wasn’t on the ballot was the biggest factor,” Trump told Senate Republicans last week in the Rose Garden. “I don’t know about that, but I was honored that they said that.”
Regardless, there is one year before the 2026 midterm elections, which will be perceived as a referendum on Trump and congressional Republicans, notwithstanding the president not being on the ballot.
One year before those elections, Democrats had increased their average advantage over the GOP in generic congressional ballot polling in recent weeks, now holding a four-point edge, 46% to 42%, with Democrats leading Republicans, according to RealClearPolitics.
To that end, congressional Republicans are resisting Trump, partly, because “they don’t want to take the rap for hurting people,” Pitney, the professor, added.
“The filibuster actually gives Senate Republicans an easy out: they can vote for bills that they don’t really want, and then blame Democrats when those bills fall short of 60 votes,” he said.
Trump did not have a honeymoon period during his first administration, as he became the only president in the country’s history to begin his first term with a negative job approval rating, according to Gallup.
In fact, his 2017 inauguration, after losing the 2016 election’s popular vote to then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, was followed the next day by the 500,000-person Women’s March on Washington, the largest single-day protest in the country’s history at the time, before he contended throughout his administration with what he called the Deep State, or federal government employees who he alleged were undermining his legislative and political agenda.
Eight years later, after making what will likely be considered the country’s greatest political comeback amid criminal indictments in four different federal or state prosecutions, Trump returned to the White House in 2025, again, with negative job approval.
At the same time, Trump has since experienced a protracted honeymoon, in part, because of his 2024 election popular vote win and his removal of critics or opponents from the federal government and more general political environment, including asking prospective employees to pass a loyalty test.
Nevertheless, that honeymoon could be ending. In addition to Senate Republicans resisting Trump’s demand to repeal the chamber’s filibuster rule during his push to reopen the government after the nation’s longest shutdown, several Senate Republicans have also opposed the president’s trade agenda, casting multiple votes against his tariff policies on Brazil, Canada, and other countries affected by his Liberation Day duties.
Senate Republicans have also not confirmed several of Trump’s administration nominees, from special counsel of the U.S. nominee Paul Ingrassia and U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia nominee Ed Martin to U.S. Surgeon General nominee Janette Nesheiwat.
The Senate GOP has similarly expressed concerns, though mostly privately, about Trump’s $20 billion currency swap with Argentina, as China purchases Argentine beef over U.S. beef products, and about military strikes against accused narco-terrorists in the Caribbean and Pacific to undercut proclaimed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Those strikes have prompted the United Kingdom to partially stop sharing intelligence with the U.S.
Senate Republicans’ resistance coincided with the Supreme Court’s last week, indicating it could rule against Trump in the case regarding whether he has the authority to introduce tariffs based on his emergency powers without congressional approval, due to Justices Amy Coney Barrett and Neil Gorsuch’s questions to Solicitor General John Sauer.
During oral arguments for the case, which Trump has described as “literally, LIFE OR DEATH for our Country” given tariffs have become one of his signature policies, Gorsuch previewed “a one-way ratchet” of continually ceding responsibility from Congress to the president if they are permitted to stand.
The Supreme Court has previously been at odds with Trump regarding the deportation of Salvadoran man Kilmar Armando Ábrego García and the president’s reliance on the Alien Enemies Act.
The White House has downplayed the prospect of Trump’s honeymoon ending, arguing the president “is working day and night to deliver on the promises he was elected to fulfill, and it’s indisputable that he has succeeded on a massive scale so far.”
“Whether it be historic tax cuts, a secure border, lowering crime rates, addressing Biden’s inflation crisis, tackling drug prices, and more, the president is just getting started,” White House spokeswoman Abigail Jackson told the Washington Examiner. “The American people also elected members of Congress to deliver on this same agenda — they should listen to their constituents the way the President has done.”
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Meanwhile, Democrats are conveying confidence about their own prospects against Trump and Republicans in next year’s midterm elections, particularly after last week’s off-year contests.
“As Americans are reeling from skyrocketing costs, a reckless trade war shuttering businesses, and a healthcare crisis that would force many Americans to pay double for coverage, Donald Trump is focused on the primary issue that matters to him: raising funds for his ballroom makeover,” Democratic National Committee deputy communications director Abhi Rahman told the Washington Examiner. “Americans across the country know exactly what his Trump-first priorities are heading into the midterms next year.”