Republicans believe the elements are there for a shutdown breakthrough as soon as Wednesday, betting that Democrats will soften their healthcare demands after high-profile elections in Virginia and New Jersey on Tuesday.
Over the last week, bipartisan talks have picked up among appropriators interested in hammering out a larger spending deal once the government reopens. At the same time, Washington is facing mounting political pressure as funding runs dry for food stamps and travelers face major delays at airports around the country.
The shift signals that one month into the shutdown fight, lawmakers may finally be interested in moving past the logjam. But Republicans, blocked from passing a short-term spending bill in the Senate, don’t see that happening until a handful of states hold elections seen as bellwethers for Democratic enthusiasm next year.
“They can’t quit the shutdown before the election, because they’re afraid their base will get mad at them and stay home,” said Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), an adviser to leadership who’s been involved in rank-and-file talks with Democrats.
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Republicans have misjudged the resolve of Democrats once already, with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) steeling his caucus to stick with its demand that expiring Obamacare subsidies get renewed as part of a funding deal.
And even Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the Senate majority leader, noted last week that other possible deadlines, including paychecks for air traffic controllers and congressional staff, have come and gone without a resolution to the impasse. Thune and the rest of congressional GOP leadership have said they would negotiate the enhanced subsidies, but only after the government reopens.
“It’d be nice if at some point they would say, OK, we passed this deadline, this deadline, and the calendar finally gets to the point where they can say, OK, let’s move forward,” he said. “We’ll see.”
Yet, there are other reasons to believe that a deal to reopen the government could come later this week. Obamacare open enrollment began on Saturday, a date seen as an inflection point for Democrats hoping Republicans would finally negotiate in the face of spiking healthcare premiums.
The shutdown will also reach a new benchmark on Tuesday, matching the record for the longest in U.S. history. Democrats deny they are holding out to please their political base, but Republicans have long speculated that Schumer forced the issue, at least in part, to fend off a primary challenger in 2028 after he caved in a March fight over government funding.
Democrats acknowledge the shifting political reality on Capitol Hill. In recent days, Senate Democrats have begun to show interest in funding the government in piecemeal fashion, starting with food stamps. Multiple judges ordered the Trump administration to tap an emergency fund to keep paying out benefits, but that has yet to happen, and the payments may only be partial should the White House comply.
And in a sign of possible shuttle diplomacy, Sen. Katie Britt (R-AL), a GOP appropriator, had at least two conversations with Schumer about the appropriations process this past week.
“Things are obviously percolating,” said Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI), slated to become the No. 2 Senate Democrat in the next Congress.
Democrats, for their part, see Trump’s return to Washington after a week of travel in Asia as helpful to getting a healthcare deal done, believing he will pressure congressional Republicans to back off their shutdown stance.
So far, Trump has taken the opposite tack, spending the weekend encouraging Republicans to eliminate the filibuster so they can pass their spending bills without Democratic input, but that option does not have broad GOP support, meaning Washington will need to negotiate its way out of the shutdown.
Thune has signaled a White House meeting on healthcare could happen this week if the government reopens.
“I mean, it’s one thing for him not to engage with us overseas. I think it’s a little bit harder for him not to engage when he’s here,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) said of Trump.
As for the elections, Kaine predicted a Democratic victory, particularly a resounding one, could aid them in the shutdown fight, but he lumped the races in with a confluence of factors that could create a critical mass for reopening the government this week.
“There’s just a lot of stuff going on right now,” said Kaine, who campaigned for the Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Virginia over the weekend. “There’s SNAP, there’s people getting their premium increases, there’s these elections.”
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“Picking out which, you know, moving piece will have the most impact, and what impact it will have, is really hard,” he added.
Trump will campaign for Republicans on the eve of the elections in Virginia and New Jersey, holding Oval Office tele-rallies for the gubernatorial candidates. Voters are also headed to the polls on Tuesday for a mayoral race in New York City and in California, where Democrats are pushing a ballot initiative to redraw their congressional maps.