President Donald Trump inched one step closer to embracing Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) in her quest to defeat former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger to succeed the term-limited Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) when he told reporters he supports the “Republican candidate” in the Virginia gubernatorial race.
But his refusal to even mention Earle-Sears’s name as he talked about the race is a striking contrast against former President Barack Obama, who not only enthusiastically endorsed Spanberger but will stump with her the last weekend before Election Day.
“This points to just the general feeling that you get from the Republican Party that they are not all that thrilled with Earle-Sears as a candidate, or feel that maybe she just isn’t going to deliver,” said David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg. “And again, I think Trump does not like the stink of failure on him.”
The Virginia off-year election, normally viewed as a bellwether for next year’s midterm elections, is shaping up to become a proxy battle of the presidents. Yet, Trump’s unease with Earle-Sears could point to signs that Democratic momentum is surpassing Republicans.
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“I think the Republican candidate is very good, and she should win because the Democrat candidate is a disaster,” Trump said about the Virginia race during a gaggle with reporters on Air Force One.
Even a Truth Social post from Trump encouraging Virginians to vote did not mention her name.
“For all of those people voting in New Jersey and Virginia for Governor, Attorney General, or any other position, please remember this: A REPUBLICAN VOTE MEANS A DRASTIC DROP IN ENERGY PRICES AND ENERGY COSTS, A DROP LIKE YOU’VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE!” he wrote on Wednesday.
Earle-Sears claimed that the president “wants me to win” during an interview with the Sit Downs with Alex Swoyer podcast.
“The president wants me to win. You saw what he said,” she said. “And let me tell you something, we’re going to win in Virginia because we have the right ideas.”
Notably, Trump has not indicated he will rally with Earle-Sears before Election Day, despite his plan to hold tele-rallies for New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli. Obama is also set to campaign with Ciattarelli’s opponent, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), on the last weekend before Election Day.
Trump’s willingness to boost Ciattarelli while keeping a distance from Earle-Sears suggests that the president views the New Jersey gubernatorial race as a winnable for the GOP.
“Trump obviously did much better in New Jersey this time than last time … that’s his neighborhood. He’s got his resort there,” said Jason Roe, a Republican strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns. “And I think it’s still an outside chance, but I’d say there’s a real chance [that Ciattarelli wins].”
Earle-Sears, however, leaned on Vivek Ramaswamy, the former head of the Department of Government Efficiency, to stump with her last month. Spanberger hit back that the lieutenant governor was embracing an administration that has helped gut the federal workforce, which makes up a sizable portion of the Virginia economy.
Other high-profile Democrats have also come to Spanberger’s aid in the Old Dominion, including former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Gov. Josh Shapiro, who will campaign with her on Sunday.
But without a strong, enthusiastic embrace from Trump, there are signs that the GOP turnout may suffer.
“The whole Trump movement has been based on [Make America Great Again] turnout. And part of that, of course, is when the president fervently endorses a Republican candidate that helps drive the MAGA advantage and turnout,” said Democratic strategist Brad Bannon. “And I think Trump failing to endorse his candidate in Virginia will only make that worse.”
Bannon also claimed that the “No Kings” marches across the nation are a sign of a growing Democratic movement against the Trump administration. “The No Kings March created a lot of energy in Democratic circles,” he said. “And the first test we’re going to see that is on November 7 in New Jersey, and Virginia, and California to see if Democratic turnout is higher than Republican turnout.”
The only Republican candidate in Virginia that Trump has thrown his endorsement behind is state Attorney General Jason Miyares.
Miyares received Trump’s endorsement after news broke that his opponent, Democrat Jay Jones, sent violent text messages calling for the death of a former Republican Virginia House Speaker.
Republicans, including Earle-Sears, have pushed to hold the entire Democratic ticket responsible for Jones’s text messages.
“Republicans know how important it is to win in Virginia this year,” said Aaron Evans, president of Winning Republican Strategies. “The Republican base is definitely united around ensuring that this really is not about personalities or endorsements. It’s about policies and what is Virginia going to look like.”
Evans also dismissed Obama’s campaigning for Spanberger as a sign of skittishness for Democrats.
“I think the fact that she’s reaching out and trying to get all of these popular Democrats into the state shows that she doesn’t believe she’s got it in the bag. It shows it’s a tight race,” he said.
A recent Virginia Commonwealth University poll showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 7 points, 49% to 42%. Another poll from Suffolk University showed Spanberger with a 9-point lead over the lieutenant governor, 52% to 43%. A Washington Post-Schar School poll had Spanberger up by 12 points, 54% to 42%, among likely voters.
With less than two weeks before Election Day and a government shutdown with no end in sight, Trump’s absence grows louder.
“This is crunch time, and I think Trump needed to say, ‘Look, go out and vote for Winsome Earle-Sears, specifically,’ not just, ‘Oh, yeah, be sure you vote Republican,’” said Richards. “I think it’s going to be, at the end of the day, a missed opportunity on the part of the Republican Party.”
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But some Republicans conceded the governor’s mansion may already be lost.
“Anyone I’ve talked to doesn’t think we have a shot at Virginia, so Trump may just be trying to avoid it in any way being a referendum on his leadership by not owning any of it,” said Roe.