Trump’s shutdown workforce threats could backfire

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President Donald Trump’s administration’s threat not to back pay federal government employees during the shutdown could backfire, given that it will also affect Trump appointees.

In a memo to White House Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought, OMB General Counsel Mark Paoletta found that the federal government is under no obligation to retroactively pay furloughed federal employees under federal law.

In the memo, Paoletta argued that the federal government can only legally issue back pay to furloughed workers if the funds are specifically appropriated by Congress. Furthermore, the memo cites 2019 amendments to the Antideficiency Act to suggest that legislation reopening the government — either a stopgap measure or a full appropriations bill — must specifically include language stipulating fulfillment of back pay in order to compensate federal workers. 

For Republican strategist Cesar Conda, “government workers are a core Democrat political constituency,” and Trump’s latest threats are “ramping up the pressure on the Democrats to pass the short-term funding bill.”

“Do Democrats want federal government workers to receive back pay or do they want to continue fighting for taxpayer-subsidized healthcare for illegals?” he posed.

Republican strategist John Feehery downplayed possible political repercussions for Trump and Republicans, contending it is only “risky” if the pay in question is for members of the military or for those employed by the Federal Aviation Administration.

“For most of these folks, they’re taking a vacation,” Feehery told the Washington Examiner. “I’m not sure what else Vought can do to put pressure on the Democrats. I don’t think it’s as risky as it might seem.”

Feehery argued that shutdowns “hurt both parties,” but that this iteration, which has “gone on for too long,” is “political malfeasance by the Democrats.”

“Democratic politicians seem to be more than willing to sacrifice the paychecks of federal workers to pursue their political goals,” he said. “They always say the politicians are willing to take the risk, but what about the people who have to make their bills, pay their bills? They’re the people who are actually taking the risk, and that seems unfair to me.”

The memo comes after another OMB document last month directed federal departments and agencies “to use the opportunity” of the shutdown to “consider Reduction in Force (RIF) notices for all employees in programs, projects, or activities” without funding, and “is not consistent with the President’s priorities.”

“RIF notices will be in addition to any furlough notices provided due to the lapse in appropriation,” the memo stated. 

Trump leaned into the messaging point during his Tuesday bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.

“It depends on who we’re talking about. I can tell you this: The Democrats have put a lot of people in great risk and jeopardy, but it really depends on who you’re talking about. But for the most part, we’re going to take care of our people,” he answered in response to a question about furloughed federal workers deserving back pay. “There are some people that really don’t deserve to be taken care of, and we’ll take care of them in a different way.”

Reporters asked the president to clarify which federal workers he was talking about, to which he responded, “You’re going to have to figure that out. Ask the Democrats that question.”

Trump did say, however, that the White House has finalized its list of federal programs it will seek to end should the shutdown continue for an extended period of time. OMB has already announced federal funding cuts of $20 billion for New York and Illinois infrastructure projects, and $8 billion for what OMB Director Russell Vought has called “Green New Scam” spending. 

“We’ll be announcing it pretty soon,” he stated. “But we have a lot of things that we’re going to eliminate and permanently eliminate.”

Still, skepticism is growing, both on and off of Capitol Hill, about Trump’s threats to lay off thousands of federal workers or withhold back pay for the rest of the federal workforce.

“Probably, unless someone works at the Department of Education,” one longtime Trump adviser told the Washington Examiner when asked if the president was bluffing. 

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) told Politico Monday that Trump’s “mafia-style threats” are nothing more than “blackmail.”

Trump, Vought, Vice President JD Vance, and White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt had all predicted last week that layoffs would be “imminent,” but the president appeared to move the goalposts again on Tuesday.

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“I’ll be able to tell you that in four or five days,” he answered when asked in the Oval Office exactly how many layoffs to expect. “If this keeps going on, it’ll be substantial, and a lot of those jobs will never come back.”

Polling regarding the shutdown remains relatively split, particularly concerning who the public considers responsible for it. 

Democrats, however, have been underscoring a Washington Post poll from last week that found a plurality of 47% of respondents told pollsters that Trump and Republicans are “mainly responsible” for the current shutdown. In comparison, 30% apportioned responsibility to Democrats, and 23% were not sure.

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