Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s (D-CA) redistricting campaign is shaking up California politics, turning once-safe districts into new battlegrounds for candidates eager to get into the competition.
Some, like Democratic San Diego Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, have already announced plans, created polished websites, and started to fundraise even though voters have not yet approved the new map.
“At a time when Democrats are eager for new voices, this shakeup actually creates a lot of opportunity for folks to jump in to newly defined districts that may have different make-ups and be less wedded to older incumbents,” Democratic strategist Kaivan Shroff told the Washington Examiner.
Los Angeles-based political strategist Jane Thama agreed, telling the Washington Examiner it is “an exciting moment” for the next generation.
“Everyone is looking around to see where they fit,” she added.
Californians will head to the polls on Nov. 4 to decide on a new congressional district map the state legislature passed last month.
Unlike Texas, where state lawmakers have control over drawing the state’s congressional map, California’s process is more complicated. Its constitution requires that an independent redistricting commission draw the map and that voters approve any changes. That means even though the state legislature passed the proposed map, it will now be up to the voters in the special election whether the map will be used for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections.
If voters greenlight it, it would turn three Republican-held seats into safe Democratic seats and turn two others into seats that lean Democratic. Specifically, the map would change districts held by Reps. Kevin Kiley (R-CA) and Doug LaMalfa (R-CA) in northern California. In Southern California, Reps. Darrell Issa (R-CA) and Ken Calvert (R-CA) would be at risk, and in the Central Valley, Rep. David Valadao (R-CA) would have a much harder time getting reelected if the map is passed.
The push to change California’s map was in direct response to Texas Republicans changing theirs at the behest of President Donald Trump. Texas’s new map creates five new Republican House seats. Trump has asked other red states to follow suit.
At stake is control of the House. Republicans currently have a seven-seat edge, with four vacancies. If the GOP loses the lower chamber in 2026, it would make Trump a lame duck president and set up considerable roadblocks to his agenda.
In California, the carved-up districts have created headaches for Republicans forced to compete in a new landscape. However, it’s had the opposite effect on Democrats.
“While California has been historically a world of political musical chairs with one-party rule and term limits, the potential new lines have accelerated and opened up opportunities for California politicos to look at other seats and opportunities,” Jeff Le, managing principal at 100 Mile Strategies LLC, told the Washington Examiner. “LA County Supervisor [Hilda] Solis and CA State Senate Pro Tem Mike McGuire have signaled their ambition to run for new congressional seats that would not have been considered without prospective redistricting.”
Campaign consultant Katie Merrill told CalMatters that the new map is “basically opening more doors than it’s closing,” adding that “chaos breeds opportunity in politics, and that’s what we’re experiencing right now.”
For example, Von Wilpert is eager to benefit from the new map. The 42-year-old former congressional staffer already has a website up, her priorities laid out, and is planning to challenge Issa, an 11-term incumbent, in the new proposed 48th District.
“Only Marni Can Flip the 48th!” her blue-and-white website says.
Von Wilpert said when the lines were redrawn, a “valuable opportunity” opened up, adding that a younger LGBT Democrat like herself has a much better shot of taking down Issa under the new map than the old one.
Merrill applauded von Wilpert’s early-out-the-gate strategy.
“Everybody should jump out there and start the race,” she said. “They have to sort of stake their ground so they freeze other candidates from jumping in. They send signals to the endorsing groups and donors about what they’re intending to do.”
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However, Le cautioned against getting out too early.
“Because of campaign rules, fundraising for federal offices will need to go into federal-specific accounts, so those looking to get a head start for future primary races will be important, albeit with risk of being seen as potentially too presumptuous of the voters in November,” he said.