Workers’ confidence in their ability to move jobs has hit its lowest point in over a decade, according to a New York Federal Reserve survey released on Monday.
Respondents indicated a perceived 44.9% probability of finding another job after losing their current job. That figure is down 5.8 points from August and marks the lowest rating since the New York Fed began asking the question in 2013.
“Consumers are feeling down about job-finding opportunities, and those feelings are wholly appropriate,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at consumer site NerdWallet. “It’s very difficult to find work right now. And unlikely to get better any time soon. Employers aren’t hiring much, so workers are stuck job-hugging, clinging to their current jobs because the market isn’t favorable to job seekers.”
The figures came as the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday that payroll jobs will likely be 911,000 lower than previously thought, adding to the evidence that the labor market is much weaker than numbers have recently indicated.
“That’s a much weaker portrait of the job market than initially thought,” Sal Guatieri, an economist for BMO Capital Markets Economics, wrote in a note on the release. “While the revision doesn’t say much about what has happened since March, it suggests the labour market had less momentum heading into the trade war.”
Hiring has dramatically slowed in recent months, which has caused workers to stay in their jobs amid uncertainty over inflation and slow job growth. The survey from the New York Fed also found respondents expecting inflation to rise in the next year.
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Additionally, there are more people seeking jobs than there are job openings, a benchmark that hasn’t been met since 2021.
The New York Fed said the data was seen across demographics but “was most pronounced for those with at most a high school education.”