Former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger received welcome news in her campaign against Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears to become Virginia’s next governor, with the Center for Politics’ “Crystal Ball” rating the race in her favor.
The Center for Politics on Thursday published ratings for a number of races, including in Virginia, where Democrats are hoping to flip the governor’s seat blue. Polling shows Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is trailing by a narrow margin in the state’s gubernatorial race to replace term-limited Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA), although some polls indicate she has made strides in closing in on her Democratic rival in recent months.
The institute changed its “Crystal Ball” prognosis for the Virginia campaign this week, writing that the outcome will be “likely Democratic,” marking a boost for Spanberger after it previously predicted the race “leans Democratic.”
“Spanberger’s lopsided financial advantage, and the fact that the Trump administration seemed to go out of its way to ensure the state continues its longstanding trend of reacting against the presidential party, have had us feeling that Democrats should be stronger favorites to flip the governorship,” the Center for Politics wrote.
“We’ll be paying attention to whatever tea leaves that may show up in the early voting patterns, but for now, we are upgrading Spanberger’s position,” it continued.
The University of Virginia-based institute criticized several recent polls that indicate Earle-Sears is closing in on Spanberger, suggesting they are biased in her favor.
In late May, pollsters had Spanberger up 43% to 26%. The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ polling average had Spanberger leading the race 45% to 36% on Aug. 1. A few weeks later, a Roanoke College Poll further shrank Spanberger’s lead at 46% to 39% on Aug. 19. An Aug. 26 poll from co/efficient showed just a five-point gap between the two candidates, with Spanberger leading 48% to 43%.
The Center for Politics argued the two latest polls “arguably stress-tested Spanberger’s lead by suggesting an electorate that may be redder than what we will see in November, and she was still ahead.”
“To be clear, we also don’t necessarily think Spanberger is “actually” leading by considerably more than what these polls show—mid-to-high single digits may very well be where the race is at,” the pollsters added.
Republicans have been eyeing Virginia, as well as New Jersey, as states they believe are trending Rightward due to the results of the 2024 election. At the time, President Donald Trump increased margins of support for the Republican Party by significant levels, leading the GOP to mount pushes in both states to expand red territory.
In Virginia, Spanberger has come under attack from the GOP partly due to her positions on transgender and immigration policy.
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Sears and Youngkin have criticized the Democratic candidate for not supporting the Laken Riley Act, which targets illegal immigrants accused of committing violent crimes for swift deportation after one such man was convicted of murdering a Georgia nursing student.
And Spanberger has also been pressured to support the federal government’s push to mandate bathroom use on the basis of biological sex instead of gender identity. The matter has become a front-and-center issue in several Virginia counties, including Loudoun County, as multiple school districts refuse the Trump administration’s request to reform transgender bathroom policy.