The red state of Utah is emerging as a rare bright spot for the Democratic Party’s redistricting wars, which have, until now, hinged on a California special election.
With Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) signing Texas’s new maps into law, Democrats now face an uphill battle to cancel out the five additional GOP seats drawn into the Lone Star State’s delegation. Hanging in the balance is the House majority, which Democrats only need a net gain of three seats to flip.
Their best bet to pick up seats after Texas’s redistricting, at first, was in California.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has called a special election in November seeking voters’ approval to circumvent the state’s independent redistricting commission and allow the Democratic-led state legislature to redraw maps. A new map would likely attempt to force out Reps. Kevin Kiley (R-CA), Darrell Issa (R-CA), David Valadao (R-CA), Doug LaMalfa (R-CA), and Ken Calvert (R-CA).
But then a ruling dropped in Utah, thrusting the Beehive State into the redistricting battle erupting around the country.
A district judge ruled that the Republican-controlled legislature drew districts counter to state law and ignored the independent redistricting commission established to prevent partisan gerrymandering.
“Redistricting is not a mere exercise in political line-drawing; it strikes at the very heart of our democracy,” Judge Dianna M. Gibson wrote in her ruling.
The judge ordered that the map be redrawn ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Though Utah is a predominantly Republican state that voted for President Donald Trump by over 20 points in 2024, Democrats are seeing a glimmer of hope taking root in Salt Lake County.
The area remains a Democratic stronghold that backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by 10 points last year. With the redrawing of the map, the new district boundaries could turn one of Utah’s four GOP districts into a competitive pick-up opportunity for Democrats.
Utah lawmakers have until September 24 to adopt a new map, per the deadline given by the district judge. The tight turnaround could force lawmakers to consider maps proposed by the redistricting commission, including one that created a district comprised of Democrat-heavy cities such as Salt Lake City and Park City.
The Utah House member who will have the most competitive seat depends on how Salt Lake City is divided up in the new map.
Before the current boundaries were drawn in 2020, the city resided within the 4th District, which is currently represented by Rep. Burgess Owens (R-UT). If a new map reflects the old 2020 one, he is likely to have the most competitive seat, per Deseret News.
In the House, every seat matters, and flipping the chamber is Democrats’ best chance to break apart the Republican trifecta. Shifting any seats into competitive battlegrounds could threaten Republicans’ razor-thin majority in an election cycle where Trump will not be at the top of the ballot to drive turnout.
Democrats have claimed that Republicans are gerrymandering districts because the GOP would lose if the midterm elections were a referendum on Trump’s record.
Republicans have argued that the redrawing in Texas is within the rights of legislators, as the state does not have a redistricting commission. Instead, the GOP has accused California Democrats of a power grab and ignoring the will of voters by trying to circumvent the state’s commission.
Other states, including Illinois, New York, Florida, Indiana, and Ohio, have also floated redistricting to try to target the opposing party in their state and boost their party’s representation on Capitol Hill.
GOP Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe on Friday said he’d call state lawmakers back for a special session to look at approving a new congressional map. The Show-Me state has two Democrats in Congress and four Republicans, and a map Trump posted on social media would wipe out one Democratic seat.
“I call on all of my Republican friends in the Missouri Legislature to work as fast as they can to get this new Congressional Map, AS IS, to Governor Mike Kehoe’s desk,” Trump said on Truth Social on Friday.
Strategists have warned that redistricting could ultimately make Congress more partisan and eliminate centrist members, many of whom each party relies on to help find common ground and unite against contentious legislation. They’ve also cautioned that this snowballing redistricting war could result in “warped” representation and ultimately be bad for the country.
TRUMP RIPS UTAH COURT ORDER TO REDRAW ELECTORAL MAP AS ‘ABSOLUTELY UNCONSTITUTIONAL’
J. Miles Coleman, an associate editor with Sabato’s Crystal Ball, related the frequency of mid-decade redistricting to the once-rare move of impeaching a president.
“In this redistricting race to the bottom, because that’s kind of what it is, it almost reminds me of … the first Trump term, how he was impeached two times. It’s like, ‘Okay, well, every time we have a president of one party, is the other party going to automatically try to impeach him?’ Just because that’s something that used to be more rare, is kind of more common now.
“It was still seen as almost a fringy type of thing, and I feel like it’s becoming more, not willy nilly, but more commonly talked about, at least, and this mid-decade redistricting could kind of fall into that category, as well,” Coleman added.