The race for governor in Virginia and other top positions in Richmond has tightened significantly over the summer, but Democrats continue to lead in the off-year election set for November 4.
The new Roanoke College Poll out Tuesday morning showed former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears by seven points, 46% to 39%.
That is a tighter race than the school’s May survey, with the liberal Spanberger leading 43% to 26%. Both candidates have increased their share of the vote, three points for the Democrat and 13 for Earle-Sears.
“The race for governor appears to be tightening, but Spanberger still leads,” said Harry Wilson, interim director for the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College.
He said the survey showed that Republicans have jumped on board the Earle-Sears campaign after her lackluster start.
“Many Republicans seem to have ‘come home’ to Earle-Sears since the May poll, but Spanberger’s voters are slightly more enthusiastic about voting and more certain of their vote,” said Wilson.
Virginia and New Jersey hold off-year gubernatorial elections that follow presidential elections, and they are often viewed as indicators of a new president’s popularity.
In the latest survey, Virginians have bounced off their overwhelmingly negative view of President Donald Trump recorded in the school’s May survey. In May, Trump’s disapproval was the “worst it has been, including during his first term,” said the analysis.
Now, Trump has a 41% approval, up eight points since May, and a 57% disapproval rating. While poor, that is seen as a big improvement and could help Earle-Sears and others on the Republican ticket.
Wilson said that partisan politics plays a big role in how voters look at Trump, with both sides dug in. “Republicans and Democrats appear to be living on different planets in terms of how they view politics, elected officials, and candidates,” he said.
What’s more, the view of voters on the commonwealth’s “direction” has flipped to positive. The poll said that 52% now see Virginia on the right track.
While Earle-Sears has struggled to close with Spanberger, other top races appear to be nail-biters.
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In the race for lieutenant governor, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid 38% to 35%, and in the attorney general race, Democrat Jay Jones leads Republican incumbent Jason Miyares 41% to 38%.
“The races for lieutenant governor and attorney general are both within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting the election is far from over. It should be noted that this poll was statistically weighted to match the 2021 Virginia exit poll, which was a good year for Republicans. In polls close to elections, IPOR weights to match the most recent relevant exit poll because it is a more objective standard than estimating which groups we think are more or less likely to vote,” said Wilson.