Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a posse of European leaders are headed to the White House this afternoon to discuss a possible end to the Russian invasion.
President Donald Trump has signaled his belief that Zelensky “can end the war” almost “immediately” if he chooses, rhetorically shifting the responsibility for establishing peace from the Kremlin to Kyiv.
“President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started,” Trump wrote. “No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE. Some things never change!!!”
The Ukrainian leader has voiced a “strong desire to end this war quickly and reliably” and said he is “confident” that Trump will “defend Ukraine” and “effectively guarantee security.”
Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Finland, the European Union, and NATO will join Zelensky — likely to prevent the beleaguered leader from suffering another dressing down by the president and his team.
At the heart of negotiations are two problems — ownership of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by Russia and the future security of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Land concessions
During Trump’s summit in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, the Russian camp reportedly demanded that Ukraine cede the entirety of the Donbas region.
Donbas, a mineral-rich region of Ukraine made up of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, is distinct for its culture and heritage tied to Russia. Putin justified his invasion of Ukraine in 2022 as an operation to protect the Russian-speaking people of Donbas from the “extreme nationalists and Neo-Nazis.”
The region is almost entirely occupied by Russian forces currently, but the Kremlin’s demand includes even those areas currently under Ukrainian control.
Ukrainian officials have previously rebuked any peace deal requiring their country to cede territory permanently. European leaders assert that giving over the territory would only reward Putin for launching the war and point to the leader’s history of broken promises regarding sustained peace.
Zelensky seems committed to this talking point ahead of the White House meeting, posting on social media that Russia “should not be rewarded” with territorial gains.
“The Russian war machine continues to destroy lives despite everything. Putin will commit demonstrative killings to maintain pressure on Ukraine and Europe, as well as to humiliate diplomatic efforts. That is precisely why we are seeking assistance to put an end to the killings,” Zelensky wrote. “That is why reliable security guarantees are required. That is why Russia should not be rewarded for its participation in this war. The war must be ended. And it is Moscow that must hear the word: ‘Stop.’”
Security guarantees
Even if a land swap is approved to end the current conflict, future national security in Ukraine remains unresolved.
A breakthrough on this front appears to have emerged in Alaska, where the Russian side approved an arrangement previously thought off the table.
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN on Sunday that during negotiations in Alaska, Russia conceded that the United States “could offer Article 5-like protection, which is one of the real reasons why Ukraine wants to be in NATO.”
Article 5 refers to NATO’s collective defense mandate, which states that military action against a member state constitutes an attack against all members.
Witkoff said the Alaska meeting was the “first time we had ever heard the Russians agree to that” and called the shift “game-changing.”
On this point, Zelensky seems unworried — publicly placing his faith in Trump to protect his war-ravaged country in the coming years if peace is established.
“I am confident that we will defend Ukraine, effectively guarantee security, and that our people will always be grateful to President Trump, everyone in America, and every partner and ally for their support and invaluable assistance,” Zelensky wrote.
Future of East-West relations in Europe
Witkoff further claimed that Russia agreed to institute a doctrine that it would not “go after any other European countries and violate their sovereignty.”
This appears to be a gesture toward the European alliance, which has warned the world that Putin’s territorial expansion will not necessarily end with Ukraine.
Nostalgia for the formidable might of the Soviet Union is on full display from the Kremlin — Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov himself showed up to the Alaska summit sporting a “CCCP” shirt. The not-so-subtle gesture sent a clear, “imperialist” message.
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Multiple nations bordering Russia are former members of the Soviet Union and are at risk of invasion if the Kremlin’s messaging is genuine.
The Europeans have scoffed at any promises from Putin that his expansion campaign will end with Ukraine.
A promise from the Kremlin not to invade other nations is likely baked into any peace deal, but it will be up to the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine to find a way to ensure the promise is kept in the long term.