(The Center Square) – Tuesday is primary election day in Washington state.
Ballots must be postmarked or placed in a ballot drop box by 8 p.m. Tuesday to be counted.
Washington has a top-two primary, which means that in candidate races, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party affiliation.
Across much of the state, there are also school board elections, mayoral contests, funding and operational changes within fire districts, and tax levies.
Key races on the ballot include several legislative contests with Republicans eyeing two districts as their best hope for potentially narrowing the wide margin Democrats enjoy in the state Legislature.
Washington State Republican Party Chair and Rep. Jim Walsh, R-Aberdeen, told The Center Square their matchback analysis looks promising for state Rep. Michelle Caldier in the 26th Legislative District. Caldier has served six terms in the House but is running for the Senate seat against Sen. Deb Krishnadasan, D-Gig Harbor.
According to the Secretary of State’s Office, matchback reports are ballot status reports that contain ballots received, accepted, or challenged. All voter information in these reports is public information.
“The matchbacks are the daily updates on votes that are booked, that are delivered and collected,” Walsh said. “Of course, we don’t know how those ballots will vote exactly, but the modeling and the matchbacks look like in [Leg District] 26, Caldier is going to win by something like a 52 to 48 margin.”
In the 5th Legislative District in east King County, Democrat Victoria Hunt moved from the House to the Senate to take over the seat of Sen. Bill Ramos, who died unexpectedly as the 2025 legislative session ended. Her opponent is Republican candidate Chad Magendanz. He ran for Senate last year but lost to Ramos.
“The modeling on [Legislative District] 5 looks like it is a dead heat,” Walsh noted. “It could be a statistical tie. It’s possible that Magandanz will trail a bit, but it will be very close in any event.”
Walsh told The Center Square, both Caldier and Magendanz have taken the approach of appealing across party lines.
“They are appealing to base Democrat voters who are frustrated with crime and taxes. If a candidate is successful at persuading not just middle voters, but these voters on the other side to come over, they’re pulling votes out of the other side’s base. I’m cautiously optimistic that each of them will,” he said.
Turnout projections
“As of our 8 a.m. update this morning, we’re at about 18.5% turnout, which actually puts us right in line to hit that 35% turnout,” said Halei Watkins, communications manager at King County Elections.
That means returns posted Tuesday night after polls close at 8 p.m. will only include about half of the votes to be counted.
“As Pacific Northwesterners, the sun comes out and the weather gets nice, and this month of August is a really hard time to grab people’s attention,” Watkins explained. “And so we definitely see folks hold on to their ballots later because many folks don’t realize there’s an election until election day itself.”
Washington Director of Elections Stuart Holmes told The Center Square that turnout for Tuesday’s primary will vary significantly from county to county.
“It’s going to be dependent on what is on the ballot. So, in those cases where there’s a ballot measure or a legislative race that may be contentious or competitive, we’ll see turnout higher in those areas,” he said. “So, you’ll see anywhere from between 20 and 50% across our counties and anywhere between 25 and 35% statewide, just on the average.”
The Center Square asked Holmes about the primary for King County executive, which includes a candidate with name recognition who is no longer running.
Washington Secretary of State Stuart Holmes discusses the King County Executive race, where candidate John Wilson has dropped out following allegations but remains on the ballot.
King County Assessor John Wilson dropped out of the race in July after being arrested for suspicion of stalking and harassing his former domestic partner.
Primary ballots had already been printed with his name listed among candidates.
“We need to get those ballots prepared for our military voters that are serving in all kinds of conditions and all across the globe so that they can vote and participate in the general election following the primary,” Holmes said. “So, the primary election date, if we waited one more day longer, we would be conflicting with the general election.”
King County Executive candidate Derek Chartrand, the only other Republican in the race, is likely to lose votes to Wilson.
The frontrunners are King County Council Chair Girmay Zahilay and King County Councilmember Claudia Balducci, both Democrats.
“Girmay’s donor list looks like the cool kids club of Washington state,” said Chartrand in a Tuesday interview with The Center Square. “Nick Brown, Bob Ferguson, Macklemore, Dave Matthews, Dale Chihuly are all max donors.
“Ultimately, what I’m here to do is chart a new course for King County and bring it back to what we remember growing up. I’m born and raised here, the only candidate who is born and raised in King County.”
Chartrand had some thoughts about Wilson’s name still being on the ballot.
Republican candidate for King County Executive, Derek Chartrand, discusses the impact of fellow Republican John Wilson remaining on the ballot after dropping out last month following stalking allegations. Chartrand expresses concern that Wilson’s name—still carrying strong name recognition as King County Assessor—could split the GOP vote and affect the outcome.
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“I think that’s one of the areas the state Legislature needs to address for the future – is understanding a timeline for printing. And there should be a farther drop-dead day,” he said, noting that if his campaign had more money, he would have run ads to educate voters about Wilson no longer being a candidate. “For John not to be publicly, maybe stating that more vocally, I do feel a little bit disappointed in his actions in that realm.”
Voters can track their ballots by signing up here.