President Donald Trump asked Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX) to call the state legislature in for a special session where they could approve new congressional maps that would redraw district lines in favor of Republicans. That began a partisan back-and-forth, with Democratic states such as California and New York threatening to redraw their maps in favor of Democrats. The process of redistricting is complicated and time-consuming, and not every state that has floated mid-decade redistricting is legally allowed to do so. This Washington Examiner series, “Power Lines,” will investigate the process, its local implications, and the hurdles the mid-decade redistricting effort helmed by national political figures will face in court. Part 1 is an in-depth look at how redistricting works in different states. Part 2 investigates why Democrats are at such a disadvantage in the redistricting battle after the 2010 midterm elections.
As the redistricting effort plays out on the national scale, with Gov. JB Pritzker (D-IL) sheltering Texas Democrats who are hoping to halt passage of new maps in the Republican-controlled legislature, state Democrats are turning to an initiative targeting redistricting from the bottom up.
“Looking at the state-by-state math, it is crystal clear Democrats must prioritize building and securing more state legislative majorities across the map if we want to go toe-to-toe with the GOP on redistricting now and in 2030,” Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams said in a statement.
The strategy is familiar to some. In 2010, Republicans rolled out their REDMAP initiative, which has been credited with creating the right-leaning balance in state legislatures nationwide. As a result, Democrats are locked out of many state legislatures as they decide on new maps. The latest initiative from the DLCC will funnel money and volunteers into state races in hopes of chipping away at the Republican majorities.
Why Democrats are vulnerable in redistricting battles
Republicans control 28 state houses, compared to Democrats’ 19. In most states, the redistricting process is regulated by the party that controls the state legislature. Maps are drawn by commissions or legislatures themselves. In Texas, the newly drawn map unveiled by state Rep. Todd Hunter was created in coordination with Texas House Republicans. Because of their comfortable majority in the House, with 25 of 38 seats, they can pass new maps without bipartisan commitment.
Texas isn’t the only state in which Republicans have floated mid-decade redistricting — Ohio, Florida, and Missouri have all been involved in the conversation to ensure Republicans retain a majority in the House.
In Ohio, Republicans hold a majority in the Senate, 24 to 9, the House, 65 to 34, and on the redistricting commission, 5 to 2. Ohio last redrew maps in 2021, but because it wasn’t done in a bipartisan manner, they are mandated to redraw them after four years. If they can come to a bipartisan agreement on a new map, it can be used for 10 years. House Speaker Matt Huffman said he hopes for a bipartisan agreement in September, but in July, Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) bluntly said he wants to see two more Republican seats in a new map.
In Florida, Republicans hold 28 out of 40 seats in the state Senate and 87 out of 120 seats in the House. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) has been vocal about wanting new maps drawn after an appeals court overturned a lower court ruling blocking a map DeSantis demanded in 2022. He previously said he thinks Florida should’ve gotten at least one more seat from the 2020 census, given the population increase.
If state legislature balance stays the same in states that don’t redistrict until 2030, Democrats will have a tough time fighting against partisan gerrymandering.
However, Republicans’ strength in redistricting isn’t a shock — it was the carefully crafted result of efforts from over a decade ago. Democrats will have to recreate that effort if they stand a chance at chipping away at Republicans’ head start going into 2030.
REDMAP and the 2010 wipeout of state Democrats
Many states where Democrats have been facing uphill redistricting battles were part of the 2010 Republicans’ REDMAP, a $30 million effort to funnel money into state legislature races that could help them gain a majority or strengthen their majority, giving them control of redistricting.
They focused on 107 races in 16 states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, with targeted spending to flip legislatures with Democratic governors.
As a result, the Republicans flipped 20 state legislatures and gained 680 seats.
Afterward, Republicans immediately cemented their victories, with RSLC Chairman Ed Gillespie saying, “This is not simply another cycle where some seats went back and forth and will soon move back the other way.”
“The post-REDMAP-wave round of redistricting was a high-water mark for partisan redistricting in modern times,” said Professor Sam Wang, the director of the Princeton Gerrymandering Project.
“It was at least, at least half a dozen maps that were drawn under single-party control, basically because of a huge shift in controlled state legislatures,” he continued.
State Democrats have not been able to put up an offensive since.
“Democrats are still digging themselves out of the hole we found ourselves in after the GOP executed their $30 million REDMAP strategy that gained them 20 legislative chamber majorities and the ability to unilaterally draw over 340 congressional districts,” a DLCC memo from July read.
Democrats call to abandon ‘federal-first’ strategy
Despite the wide and loud calls for redistricting in states such as New York, Ohio, Florida, Illinois, and California, most states won’t be able to implement new maps before 2026, if at all, given restrictions on redistricting more than once a decade.
Further, Democrats have often been the ones leading the charge against partisan gerrymandering, though they do their fair share of it. Many states have implemented independent commissions and other checks to ensure lines aren’t being drawn by those who have a stake in it.
In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul called on Monday to disband the independent commission, which was created in 2014 by a voter-approved amendment.
“I’m tired with fighting this fight with my hand tied behind my back,” Hochul said at a press conference with Texas Democrats who fled the state during their special session. “With all due respect to the good government groups, politics is a political process. And to think we’re gonna do this with a purity test … we’re sick and tired of being pushed around.”
California will similarly have to create a workaround for its independent commission, which was created in 2008. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) called for a special election in November, asking voters to approve a measure that would give the map-drawing power back to legislators rather than an independent commission.
“We’re not here to eliminate the [independent redistricting] commission,” Newsom said. “We’re here to provide a pathway in ’26, ’28, and in 2030 for congressional maps on the basis of a response to the rigging of the system of the president of the United States.”
It looks like they’re “basically undo[ing] the reforms they used to be in favor of,” Wang said.
While national Democrats make headlines about short-term fixes that are sure to be used to paint them as flip-floppers, the DLCC is acknowledging the strategy behind how Republicans got here and drawing up a similar playbook.
TEXAS HAS KICKED OFF ITS MID-DECADE REDISTRICTING EFFORT. WHAT DOES THE PROCESS LOOK LIKE?
The DLCC will focus on strengthening their very slim majorities in Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Virginia’s state Senates to ensure control over redistricting in 2030. They’ll also have to flip seats since Republicans flipped the Michigan House in 2024.
“The 2030 redistricting fight has already begun. Democrats must reassess the failed federal-first strategy and rebuild the party from the ground up in order to achieve lasting success,” the DLCC memo read.