While the better-funded candidate typically beats out their competitors each election cycle, the republic the founders crafted allows grassroots movements to fuel major political upsets.
It’s well known that the candidate who spends the most is usually the victor. For example, more than 90% of candidates who spend the most win when it comes to House seats.
“Campaign finance matters,” Michael Kang, a law professor at Northwestern University specializing in campaign finance, told NPR. “It’s the way that candidates fund their outreach and messaging to voters.”
But it’s not the only factor tied to a victorious campaign. The candidate, their charisma, and the issues they’re running on all tie into performance. That played out on the national stage during the 2024 election cycle, which saw history’s most expensive presidential campaigns. Former Vice President Kamala Harris lost her race against President Donald Trump, despite outspending him by hundreds of millions of dollars.
“Spending money will always be one piece of the puzzle, of course,” according to the Institute for Free Speech. “Yard signs, mailers, advertisements, and other communication mediums cost money. If a candidate wants to inform and win voters, they will need to buy exposure. But spending more doesn’t make a candidate win. In the end, only one thing wins elections, and that’s earning the most votes.”
Aside from Harris versus Trump, there have been multiple other high-profile races in recent years where a candidate won despite the other side having a funding advantage.
2025 New York Democratic mayoral primary
In this election, New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani pulled off an upset win against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo despite being outspent by a more than 3-to-1 margin.
Mamdani ran an impressive grassroots campaign in which he matched Cuomo in funds raised directly by their campaigns, meeting the $8 million donations cap imposed by New York law.
However, when accounting additionally for the outside groups and PACs supporting their candidacies, the former governor outspent Mamdani by millions.
Cuomo’s loss came after spending around $87 per vote compared to Mamdani’s $19, according to the City.
Mamdani worked around the overall spending disadvantage partly due to his mighty army of volunteers, which he built by starting his campaign early in October 2024, compared to the following March, when Cuomo launched his bid for City Hall.
2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court race
Trial judge Susan Crawford, who aligned with Democrats, was pitted against former Attorney General Brad Schimel ahead of the April election.
As Republican-affiliated groups sought to flip the seat and tilt the liberal balance of the court by electing Schimel, the race quickly became the most expensive judicial election in history, with total spending topping $100 million.
Elon Musk-affiliated PACs, including Building America’s Future and America, funneled over $20 million into Schimel’s campaign, which attracted over $54 million in total funding, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.
But in the end, Crawford won despite drawing less funding, around $46 million. She defeated Schimel by a 10-point margin, meaning that liberals will continue to hold a 4-3 majority on the state high court.
“From tip to tail, north to south, east to west, this was an absolute drubbing,” Democratic political operative Joe Zepecki told Wisconsin Public Radio.
Schimel’s loss was blamed partly on turnout. While Democratic outrage against Musk and his work at Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency helped drive momentum on the Left, Republicans also didn’t turn in the numbers Schimel needed to win.
“It was a turnout issue on the Republican side,” longtime GOP consultant Bill McCoshen said. “Not enough Donald Trump voters who voted in November.”
2022 Alaska House Race: Mary Peltola
Peltola faced heavy odds in this race as she sought to flip an Alaska seat that a Republican had held for 49 years.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, who held high name recognition and a powerful funding machine, was one of Peltola’s opponents who challenged her during her campaign to fill Don Young’s seat in a special election. Republican businessman Nick Begich III was also on the ticket.
Ultimately, Peltola won the election despite raising only about one-sixth of what her two Republican opponents raised combined, flipping the seat blue in a critical win for Democrats, who hadn’t won a statewide election since 2008.
Peltola’s campaign raised just $379,088 and spent $254,299, compared to Palin, who raised more than $1 million and spent $996,291, according to Ballotpedia.
But after the ballots were counted, Peltola captured the win by a 51.5% to 48.5% margin.
The Democratic congresswoman credited her victory partly to the effect of the state’s then-brand-new ranked choice voting system.
WORKING-CLASS SUPPORT ELUDES MAMDANI IN NYC MAYORAL RACE
“This race showed that Alaskans have an appetite for someone who isn’t partisan, and for campaigns that are positive,” Peltola told the New Yorker. “I’m optimistic about ranked choice voting — it certainly made this possible.”
In the initial round of results, 40% of voters chose Peltola as their first choice, 31% chose Palin, and 29% Begich. In subsequent rounds, Peltola was able to pick up votes and secure the win after Begich’s votes were reallocated under ranked choice.