Democrats called former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper‘s entrance into the Senate race to succeed retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) a “game-changer” in their hopes to flip the upper chamber from Republican control.
Party members have begun to clear the field for Cooper, a popular figure in the Tarheel State, in the Democratic primary ahead of a likely face-off with Michael Whatley, the Donald Trump-backed front-runner in the GOP primary.
But Democrats are already claiming they have the upper hand, as Cooper won’t have to face Tillis, who has a track record of winning statewide elections, and is running in a purple-ish battleground state. Cooper also won his gubernatorial races in 2016 and 2020, even as Trump won at the presidential level.
Outside of one or two other state Democrats, Douglas Wilson, a Democratic strategist based in North Carolina, said Cooper was “the most successful democratic statewide official that has been able to govern and get elected in a purple state that’s center-right, that Trump won three times.”
“And he has also been able to do a lot of bipartisan stuff with Republicans, given his push for many years to get Medicaid expanded here, and it’s happened,” he continued. “So it is a game-changer.”
The Senate race will likely be one of the most expensive next year as Republicans defend their control.
“This is a race that’s going to be decided by fewer than three percentage points. It’s going to be close,” said Western Carolina University professor Chris Cooper. “And Roy Cooper’s not going to be handed the keys to the Senate seat just because he was a popular governor.”
“The history sort of looks good for the Republicans, and the Democrats haven’t won in a while, but there’s a lot that looks good for the Democrats,” he added. “Roy Cooper’s name recognition, I think the ‘big beautiful bill,’ the Democrats are hoping that is going to do for them what the Affordable Care Act did for Republicans in 2010.”
ROY COOPER ENTERS NORTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE, SETTING UP 2026 SHOWDOWN
Democrats go on the offensive on Medicaid
In order to flip the Senate next year, Democrats will need a net of four seats. However, with races in states that Trump won in 2024, such as deep red Texas, the North Carolina race may be their best chance for a pickup.
John Verdejo, a North Carolina Democratic National Committee member, said Democrats were pleased that Cooper would not face Tillis, but instead, Whatley, a former NC GOP chairman and the current chairman of the Republican National Committee.
“Whatley is an easy target,” said Verdejo. “We can easily pin on him all the ills that North Carolina has seen.”
Democrats pointed to Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” and its effect on Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. North Carolina has the second-largest rural population in the nation, and more than half a million people in the state could lose their health insurance, according to estimates from the governor’s office. Estimates also show 1.4 million North Carolinians – including 600,000 children – could lose access to food assistance.
“I think that’s going to be ground zero here in North Carolina, given that Medicaid was just expanded here less than two years ago,” said Wilson. In a joint fundraising pitch with the DNC on Monday, Cooper also bragged about expanding Medicaid.
The outgoing Tillis thumped the GOP on the Senate floor over Medicaid last month, after announcing his retirement.
“It is inescapable, this bill will betray the promise Donald Trump made,” Tillis said. “I’m telling the president that you have been misinformed. You supporting the Senate mark will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.”
However, the Medicaid cuts are set to take effect after the 2026 midterms, somewhat undercutting Democratic attacks against Republicans.
“You can make that argument, but I don’t think people will totally buy it until the material effects of the policy are felt,” said Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at NC State University. “If it is a negative for Republicans going forward, it’ll probably be felt more in 2028 than 2026.”
Democrats also pointed to Cooper’s rural roots as another benefit in his race for the Senate seat. “He grew up in Nash County, son of a farmer and an attorney,” said Verdejo. “He’s grown tobacco and all that stuff. He’s from the dirt. He’s one of them, so he can talk that talk. He knows the struggles.”
A ‘formidable’ race … avoided?
A battle against Tillis, instead of Whatley, would have been more formidable, Verdejo added, to which Taylor somewhat agreed, pointing to Tillis beating his opponent by a higher share than Trump defeating former President Joe Biden.
“Tillis ran ahead of Trump, although some people might say that Tillis was assisted by his opponent’s scandal,” said Taylor of the 2020 race. “Trump beat Biden in the state by about 1.4 percentage points, and Tillis beat Cal Cunningham by nearly two. Very close, but Tillis did run ahead of Trump in 2020.”
Even Tillis conceded in a recent interview that Cooper’s gubernatorial track record will help him in the Senate race.
“I was actually surprised,” the senator told the Washington Examiner. “It didn’t look like he was going to move into the race, but I think he’ll be a formidable competitor. He’s not invulnerable, but he’s got a pretty good track record as governor.”
“If you’re talking about somebody from a standing start, national fundraising, those things, connection with the Governor’s Association, it’s probably a smart call,” Tillis also said of Cooper joining the race. “We’ve just got to match up and beat them. I don’t want this seat to be taken by a Democrat.”
But Whatley is not without his strengths. As the chairman of the RNC, he has deep pockets that could come to his aid before the elections.
“Whatley is a quality candidate. He has the kind of background that means that he has networked with the richest and most connected donors, not just in the state of North Carolina, but in the United States of America,” said Cooper, the professor. “So in today’s nationalized political environment, Whatley is going to be a good candidate. Watley is also going to clear most of the field on the Republican side.”
Republicans brand Cooper a ‘radical’
Democrats in the Tarheel State have not won a Senate race since 2008, the same year that the last Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama, won the state. Yet, political history has shown that the opposing party of the leader in the White House tends to win seats during the midterm elections. Democrats flipped the House during the 2018 midterm elections under Trump’s first administration.
Republicans, however, quickly moved on Monday to brand Cooper as a “radical” and “reckless” candidate linked to former President Joe Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris in fundraising appeals.
“Roy Cooper can run, but he can’t hide from his 40-year radical record,” said NCGOP Chairman Jason Simmons in a statement. “From raising taxes, closing schools, pardoning violent criminals, and failing during hurricane recovery, he has consistently sided with left-wing interests over families and small businesses. He will do everything he can to work against President Trump in the U.S. Senate. We won’t let that happen, and we will keep this seat for Republicans in 2026.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee implored supporters in a fundraising plea not to “let Reckless Roy Cooper dupe North Carolina again.”
Democrats and Trump are suffering from low approval
Recent polling from the Wall Street Journal shows the national Democratic brand at a 35-year low, with 63% of voters holding an unfavorable view of the Party and 33% holding a favorable view. However, Cooper’s odds are higher at the local level in North Carolina.
A July poll from co/efficient showed a pro-Trump Republican tied with Cooper at 48% in a head-to-head matchup. An April poll from the left-leaning think tank Carolina Forward showed a hypothetical matchup, with Cooper at 46% compared to Tillis at 44%.
Blair Reeves, the founder of Carolina Forward, told the Washington Examiner that, despite having Trump’s support, Whatley doesn’t have enough name recognition in North Carolina.
“For people who don’t really obsess about politics, I don’t think they know who Michael Whatley is,” said Reeves. “They’ve probably never seen his picture. Don’t know his name. I don’t even know that any polling about him exists, because no one’s ever bothered to poll him before.”
If Whatley were to lean on Trump to campaign with him in North Carolina to boost his recognition, Democrats claimed they would welcome it.
“We welcome it,” said Verdejo. “Because with Trump’s popularity in the tank, next to a Whatley, it’ll put a picture to the face and to the message of everything that has gone wrong since Trump has taken office.”
Although Trump won’t be on the ballot next year, his polling levels could drag down or lift up Whatley in the race against Cooper.
“If you have the White House and your president’s approval ratings are underwater, that’s at least a flashing yellow sign,” said Taylor, the NC State University professor.
A July Catawba College/YouGov poll showed more North Carolinians disapproved of Trump, at 50%, than approved, at 46%. Nationally, an average composite of polls showed Trump at a 46% approval rating and a 52% disapproval rating, according to RealClearPolitics.
Governors don’t always succeed
History has shown that sometimes a popular governor doesn’t have the juice to win a Senate race.
Former Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan failed to win the open Senate seat last year, losing to now-Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD).
Popular Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) declined to challenge the vulnerable Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), as did Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH), who isn’t running for the open seat in New Hampshire after Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen announced her retirement.
“Jim Hunt, who was arguably the most popular governor in North Carolina history, lost to Jesse Helms to the United States Senate,” said Cooper, the West Carolina professor, of the 1984 matchup. “Look, that has to be a concern for Roy Cooper and anybody who thinks he’s going to waltz into the Senate seat without a serious challenge.”
Experts claimed that, unlike Hogan, who battled in deep-blue Maryland, North Carolina’s purple state status makes it competitive for Cooper to run in.
“If Cooper is running, it’s because he thinks he’s going to win. He has no interest in ending his political career at the loss; the people around him are very good at winning elections,” said Reeves, of Carolina Forward. “And Cooper himself is very good at winning elections.”
“So the big question in this election is going to be: one of these two streaks is going to be broken,” Reeves added. “Either the North Carolina Democrats’ line of losses in federal races or Roy Cooper’s undefeated sweep.”
Ramsey Touchberry contributed to this report.