President Donald Trump’s uptick in popularity, a win over Democrats in the quarterly fundraising race, and a string of policy victories headlined by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act should have Republicans confident of keeping control of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections.
But there are growing signs of trouble for the GOP, with a handful of polls showing independent voters walking away, evidence of weak messaging, and a lack of focus on what Main Street Republicans want.
The latest sign came Tuesday morning when Rasmussen Reports released a poll showing Democrats expanding their lead on the so-called generic election ballot, 46% to 42%.
The analysis said, “That marks a net three-point gain for Democrats since May, when they led by a single point, 45% to 44%. Perhaps more troubling for Republicans, they now stand a net seven points worse than they did before last November’s election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.”
Rasmussen’s pollster, Mark Mitchell, called the situation “bleak.”
Our message to Republicans…
Democrats are on track to win in ’26. It’s going to take big things to prevent that.
Plus, a plea to reconcile with @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/TCvKutOo2o
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@honestpollster) July 21, 2025
Gallup, meanwhile, highlighted its numbers showing independent voters losing faith in government institutions and trending like Democrats.
And Republican pollster McLaughlin & Associates found inadequate messaging on the “big, beautiful bill,” with voters evenly split on the impact of the legislation.
“President Trump’s pro-growth tax cuts passed and that’s what counts, but we know work has to be done,” said pollster John McLaughlin.
With the election over a year away, however, Republicans are not worried and feel they and Trump have many more wins coming that will help them keep control of the House and Senate.
And while they are aware of the polling warning signs, GOP political advisers point to a host of other factors that suggest keeping control of Congress is in hand.
“We feel confident,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella.
He methodically pushed back on the negative polling and provided his own list on why the political landscape isn’t bleak for Republicans. “The historical headwind is against us in the midterms, but if you look under the hood, things are actually vastly different than they were in 2018, which was a loss for Republicans” in the House, he said.
.@FoxNews: Republican fundraising outpaces Democrats by nearly double, June numbers showhttps://t.co/lfbOu8Mwp1
— Mike Marinella (@mike_marinella) July 22, 2025
In 2017, said Marinella, House Democrats led on the generic ballot by nine points, not the four in Rasmussen’s new poll. And in 2018, it was still eight points. “I think that’s really important to note, that there’s very big differences. This is not the 2018 cycle by any means. It’s a very even playing field right now, and we’re in a much better position,” he said.
His other points:
— Support for Democrats is essentially flat, having gained just one point in the Rasmussen survey since May.
— Republicans lead with Hispanics, 45% to 42%.
— There are far fewer politically endangered Republican candidates than Democrats. Some 13 Democratic incumbent House members sit in districts won by Trump, while there are just three Republican incumbents in districts won by former Vice President Kamala Harris last year.
— Approval of Democrats in Congress is 19%, the worst ever.
— On the question of “Which party is working for you,” typically led by Democrats in double digits, Republicans are now tied at 47%, according to CNN.
— In some districts and states, Democratic incumbents are facing opposition from progressive and socialist challengers in districts won by Trump. Their victories should make it easier for GOP challengers.
— Pre-election redistricting should help the GOP, especially in Ohio and possibly Texas.
— Republicans have a rare off-year fundraising edge. In the second quarter, the NRCC collected $32.3 million and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee $29.1 million. And the most vulnerable House Republican “Patriots” outraised Democratic “Frontline” candidates.
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— The Republican National Committee has also outraised the Democratic National Committee, $96.4 million during the first six months of the year to $69.2 million. The RNC also has a cash-on-hand lead of $80.78 million to $15.22 million.
Marinella told Secrets, “We’re confident that voters that turned out for Donald Trump will turn out for Republicans down the ballot. We feel that the momentum is on our side in terms of fundraising, in terms of the polling, and just the general shift across the map towards Republicans across the board.”