(The Center Square) – As North Carolina politics grasps seat edges and awaits the ultimate duo competing to succeed U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis, there is an essence to why there is a wait.
To borrow from “A League of Their Own,” as said by Tom Hanks in the role of baseball manager Jimmy Dugan, “It’s supposed to be hard. If it were easy, everyone would do it.”
Former Gov. Roy Cooper, 68, is the favorite of many Democratic supporters and leaders and has not yet declared an intention or declined. The Republican field is wide open, with freshman U.S. Reps. Pat Harrigan, 38, and Brad Knott, 39, carving respective paths on Capitol Hill and offering a youthful turn to compliment 53-year-old U.S. Sen. Ted Budd.
There’s no dispute Cooper is investing time and resources into the possibility. How far, such as campaign teams, key donors and websites, are considered probable though unconfirmed by those who could be granted authority to speak about them.
Veteran state politicos Dr. Chris Cooper – no relation to the former governor – and Dr. Michael Bitzer agree a “no” to the idea would be for personal reasons such as Beltway gridlock, proximity to retirement, and what he could actually do for the state. The latter has been his calling card forever.
And Dallas Woodhouse, another veteran state politico, adds respectfully yet bluntly for all he’s done that his party and supporters admire, “Even if he wins, Democrats are likely to be in the minority for at least his first couple of years. He inevitably will end up less popular. He can’t equivocate. He’s got to vote with Democrats or against Democrats.”
Gary Pearce, a journalist, author and longtime associate of the esteemed Hunt family, knows Democrats well. He wrote this week he is without inside information and that Cooper will run in a “Yes he will” blog piece.
Even before Tillis’ retirement announcement, the seat was one of two in the Senate for Republicans considered most vulnerable to change in the midterms either within party or to flip blue. Rep. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is in the other.
Democrats beyond North Carolina – Cooper was a possibiilty as vice president or cabinet member and the last speaker before Kamala Harris at last year’s national party convention – see opportunity for a chamber with 53 Republicans, 45 of their party and two independents caucusing with them.
“Accomplishing legislative goals is something that seems to be more fleeting nowadays, and policy considerations tend to be about messaging for the next election than addressing current issues or concerns, unless they are in a mega-package and party unity reigns,” said Bitzer, chairman of the Department of Politics at Catawba College and referencing the recently signed budget reconciliation bill. “He also may be thinking about the fact that if he wins next year, he would be 70 years old upon entering the Senate. There’s some discussion about generational leadership within the Democratic Party, but I think Cooper has garnered the respect of a wide range of Democrats that it wouldn’t be an issue, as with others in the party.”
Chris Cooper, director of the Haire Institute for Public Policy at Western Carolina University, said the tea leaves on Roy Cooper running are only slightly more reliable than a coin toss.
“As Thom Tillis’ retirement suggests, serving the U.S. Senate isn’t all that fun these days,” the professor says. “And, although Cooper is not, by any stretch ‘too old,’ especially in U.S. Senate terms, he would be 69 when elected and 75 at the end of his first term were he to be successful.
“Sure, he could run for a second term, but that would bring him into his 80s. Does he want to spend his last good years as one of 100 members of the U.S. Senate – almost certainly in the minority party for at least the first two years? Only Roy Cooper knows the answer.”
Woodhouse, former leader of the North Carolina Republican Party and now state executive director for American Majority-Action, expects him to run.
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“Democrats nationally are far to the left of North Carolina,” Woodhouse told The Center Square. “If he does this, and I think he’s going to, the best-case scenario isn’t very good.
“I expect he’s going to run. He’ll be the favorite by a little bit. It will not be an election like he’s ever seen.”