Senate Republicans are straining to meet a July 4 deadline to pass President Donald Trump‘s “big, beautiful bill” as a flurry of last-minute negotiations and legislative changes threaten to delay a final vote.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) has a daunting to-do list before he can bring the tax bill to the floor, with a vote anticipated sometime toward the end of the week.
Committee chairs have been meeting with the Senate parliamentarian as Democrats try to strike language from the legislation under the strict rules of budget reconciliation, a legislative process that allows for bills to bypass the filibuster and pass with only a simple majority in the Senate. At the same time, Republicans are still trying to find a delicate compromise that pleases both fiscal hawks and a bloc of centrists concerned about the bill’s Medicaid reforms.
Thune projected confidence Monday that Republicans would pass the megabill before next week’s recess, even if it meant keeping lawmakers in town through the weekend, and there were signs that major sticking points were starting to be worked out.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), the key negotiator with the House SALT Caucus, told the Washington Examiner that Senate Republicans were zeroing in on a compromise for the state and local tax deduction — the same $40,000 cap in the House bill, but with a lower income threshold.
Still, Republicans offered a degree of skepticism that this week’s timeline was realistic, while Thune conceded Monday that meetings with Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough were taking longer than initially expected.
So far, MacDonough has deemed more than a dozen provisions of the megabill noncompliant with the rules of budget reconciliation, forcing committees to abandon or rewrite their text to comply.
“It’s a feature that we don’t have complete control over, but they’re working through it and in some cases, as things are flagged, they’re making counteroffers,” Thune told reporters.
Even the SALT provision seemed far from a done deal as Senate Republicans left a Monday evening conference meeting to receive an update on the legislation.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) told reporters there was “no consensus” after the briefing, while Mullin acknowledged he was still socializing the compromise figures with his colleagues.
“I wouldn’t say an agreement. I would say acceptance,” Mullin said.
How Republicans plan to accommodate so-called “Medicaid moderates” also remains an open question.
In the meeting, Thune clarified that there would be no further changes to how states are reimbursed under Medicaid, according to Hawley. Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), a fiscal hawk, had been pressing for new limits on the expansion population under Obamacare.
However, it is still unclear whether Senate Republicans will keep a new cap on the provider tax, which helps states pay for their share of Medicaid. Leadership had been discussing a “provider relief fund” to ensure rural hospitals won’t close due to the lower rate, but Hawley is pressing Thune to hew closer to the House-passed bill, which simply freezes the provider tax.
When asked on Monday if he had the votes to pass the mega bill, Thune retorted, “Let’s hope so.”
Trump has begun to get involved as the date for passage approaches and on Monday hosted a group of fiscal hawks, including Scott and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), at the White House.
Republicans are simultaneously bogged down in high-stakes meetings with the parliamentarian. On Monday, Sen. John Boozman (R-AR), the chairman of the Agriculture Committee, told the Washington Examiner that he was revising a food stamps provision that shifts costs onto states.
Although the language was ruled ineligible on Friday, he expressed confidence that it would pass muster in the final bill.
“We have good reason to believe that if we make some changes … that we can make it where it’s Byrd compliant,” Boozman said, referring to the rule that governs eligibility.
The bigger test will be MacDonough’s meetings with the Senate Finance Committee, whose text covers the most significant and controversial elements of the bill. The meetings were supposed to begin on Sunday but were pushed to Monday and Tuesday instead.
Among the most consequential provisions is Republicans’ use of a “current policy baseline,” a new scoring method that treats trillions in tax extensions as cost-free. Democrats are also expected to challenge a proposed tax break on firearm silencers and a new tax credit for donations to private school scholarships.
In a virtual town hall, Johnson doubted Monday that the megabill could pass this week and has previously urged leadership to take an extra few weeks to hammer out a compromise.
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But Thune maintained that the Senate is “on schedule” for a vote before the end of the week. Mullin, one of his advisers, predicted that leadership would schedule an all-night “vote-a-rama” on Thursday or Friday, allowing lawmakers to leave the following morning.
“If not, we’ll stay here until we get it done,” Mullin said.