As Iran responds militarily to the United States’s bombing of its nuclear facilities, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remains out of sight and closely guarded.
Officials in Israel have asserted for days that the supreme leader is on the cusp of fleeing the embattled Islamic Republic. Khamenei‘s camp maintains that he has no such plans, as he refuses to leave Iran and is protected by a security gaggle of specially trained guards.
Khamenei’s fleeing of Iran would be the best outcome for those in Israel seeking to scrap the Islamic Republic and set up a more friendly government with the West. However, abandoning the country would be a shocking betrayal that the devout cleric will unlikely make.
”Khamenei is a true believer in the theocratic values of the Islamic Republic,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, the Iran Program senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “He has consistently prioritized his survival over the survival of anyone else, including himself.”
It was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who instigated the media speculation about Iranian leaders seeking to leave during a speech the day after Operation Rising Lion took place.
“We have indications that senior leaders in Iran are already packing their bags,” the prime minister said in a video address in English. “They sense what’s coming.”
Various reports from outside Iran then said Ali Asghar Hejazi, Khamenei’s deputy chief of staff, contacted Russia in the days following Operation Rising Lion to plead for the supreme leader’s asylum.
That narrative was repeated on Monday by Reza Pahlavi, the crown prince of Iran, who is closely aligned with the Israeli government and the most likely candidate to replace Khamenei in a forced regime change.
“Credible reports indicate that Ali Khamenei’s family, and the families of senior regime officials, are making preparations to flee Iran,” he said at a press conference in Paris, France, on Monday.
Such a flight has yet to materialize. But in the unlikely event of Khamenei’s exit, Russia would be among his only options.
“On pure speculation, if Khamenei were to leave Iran, the likeliest option for him would be Russia,” said Taleblu, emphasizing again that he finds it “extremely unlikely [Khamenei] would leave Iran and the regime.”
Russia has been one of Iran’s most vocal advocates since the strikes in Tehran began and a source of recurring counsel.
The Kremlin’s support for the regime has only increased since the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, after which Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi immediately flew to Moscow to meet with his Russian counterparts.
“We, of course, condemn the growing number of participants in this conflict and the renewed escalation of tensions in the region, and we express deep regret in this regard,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.
Peskov affirmed Russian support for Iran, adding that further assistance to the Khamenei government will “depend on what Iran needs.”
In addition to Netanyahu’s comments, media speculation that Khamenei will flee to Russia is likely also influenced by the escape of former Syrian President Bashar Assad.
The dethroned leader was rescued and taken under protection inside Russia after the collapse of his government to domestic insurgents.
President Donald Trump has alluded to the idea that he is willing to assassinate Khamenei, if necessary, to quell the conflict.
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“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding,” the president said in a Jun. 17 social media post. “He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz also asserted that “Khamenei will pay for his crimes” after Iran struck the Soroka University Medical Center in Beersheba, Israel, last week.