Israel’s military operations against Iran’s proxies surrounding the Jewish state over the last year and a half changed its calculations as it relates to a direct confrontation with Tehran.
On Thursday night into Friday morning, Israel’s air force began what is expected to be an extensive military assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities and senior military leaders with the goal of ending what it says is an existential threat to the nation.
Israel and Iran have spent decades engaged in covert espionage targeting each other with indirect attacks. By design from Tehran, it left the more direct operations against Israel for its proxies to insulate itself from possibly incurring a regional conflict.
As a byproduct, it also kept Israel stymied from launching an overwhelming attack on Iran because it knew that any attack would be met with retaliations not just from Tehran but from Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen.
The Israelis’ calculations changed on Oct. 7, 2023, the day that looks like it could be remembered as a turning point in the region’s history.
“Our partners have described the events of the last 20 months as a tectonic shift, an earthquake, one that began on 7 October 2023 and continues to produce aftershocks across the region,” Gen. Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, said Tuesday in front of the House Armed Services Committee.
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When Hamas invaded southern Israel on Oct. 7, the terrorist organization killed roughly 1,200 people and kidnapped another 250. Hamas leaders wanted Iran’s other proxies to immediately join the conflict to divide the Israeli military’s time and attention, but little direct help came.
Hezbollah began firing rockets and missiles into northern Israel a day after the attack, prompting Israel to evacuate civilians in the area near the Israel-Lebanon border, but no Hezbollah invasion occurred like Hamas’s operation. Hezbollah, prior to this, had been widely viewed as Iran’s largest and most sophisticated terrorist proxy.
About a year after the Oct. 7 attack, Israel began a ground operation into southern Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah’s stronghold in southern Lebanon after decades of the terrorist group operating in violation of the United Nations resolution that ended the last Israel-Hezbollah war in 2005.
In one of its most significant operations, Israel killed then-Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, while it also decimated the group’s rank and file with the stunning beeper and walkie-talkie operations in which Israel’s clandestine organization sabotaged Hezbollah’s communication devices and planted small explosives in them.
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“I think it’s pretty significant, I think they’ve taken advantage of the fact that Hezbollah is no longer a threat,” retired Gen. Joseph Votel told the Washington Examiner. “Obviously I think the presence of Hezbollah, the effect of Hezbollah in Lebanon had been somewhat of a deterrent to Israel from taking this action before and I think that they’ve seen the effectiveness they had against Hezbollah has really opened up the opportunity to go after what they have characterized as an existential threat.”
With Hezbollah and Hamas largely defanged, the Israeli government had little to worry about them rushing to defend Iran after the multipronged attack on its nuclear facilities and scientists.
The fall of Bashar Assad in Syria also played a significant role in weakening Iran because it took away its primary way to aid Hezbollah: going by ground through Iraq and Syria, which it is no longer able to do since the Assad regime collapsed.
In addition to Iran, two of Assad’s other backers, Hezbollah and Russia, were too busy in their own conflicts to come to his defense when local militias began amassing territory and threatening his reign.
“Qassem Soleimani’s vision of a Shia Crescent from Iran, through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, was shattered as the Syrian regime collapsed and Assad fled to Russia. Lebanese Hezbollah was decimated by Israel, including the deaths of many of their leaders implicated in the 1983 Beirut bombing that killed 241 American service members,” Kurilla added. “This dealt a massive blow to Iran’s terror network that has targeted and killed U.S. personnel across the region for decades.”
Shortly after Israel launched its attack Thursday night, officials warned its civilian population that it should be prepared for an Iranian response.
Iran’s initial retaliatory response consisted of firing off about 100 drones toward Israel’s territory, though there was little reported damage and no casualties. Tel Aviv came under fire on Friday.
The response was much smaller than the two Iranian attacks on Israel last year, which consisted of ballistic and cruise missiles as well, though its retaliation is likely ongoing.
“I thought it was actually a little bit anemic, frankly, I would’ve expected more given what we saw in October and last April,” Votel said, though he warned that Iran and Israel are both likely planning for additional attacks.
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As Israel fought against Iran and its proxies, it has taken steps indicating that it may be working on a nuclear weapon.
“Tehran continued to increase their stockpiles of uranium enriched to 60% for which there is no civilian purpose, threatening catastrophic ramifications across the region and beyond. … From this disorder, emerges opportunity,” Kurilla said. “Iran is in a weaker strategic position now than at any point in the last 40 years, though it maintains significant operational capability.”