EXCLUSIVE – Advancing American Freedom, the advocacy group founded by former Vice President Mike Pence, is urging lawmakers to ignore the Congressional Budget Office‘s deficit projections as Republicans advance their tax agenda on Capitol Hill.
In a memo circulated to congressional offices on Friday, AAF called the nonpartisan budget forecaster “wildly inaccurate” after it projected the tax portion of President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” would add $3.8 trillion to the debt. Pointing to calculations that proved to be wrong in 2018, when the tax cuts were first going into effect, the organization said the CBO should not “set the terms” of debate over its passage.
It noted actual revenue was $1.5 trillion higher than the CBO’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act projections from 2018 to 2024, a gap largely explained by incorrect inflation assumptions.
“Rather than allow unreliable estimates to upend or delay much-needed tax reform, Congress should move forward immediately to make as many of TCJA’s provisions permanent and protect the American people from a major tax hike from going into effect at the end of 2025,” the memo said.
The latest projections, released last week, put the legislation on shakier ground as it neared passage in the House, though last-minute concessions to fiscal hawks were enough to mollify those Republicans. As attention turns to the Senate, conservatives have threatened to derail the bill without even larger spending cuts.
The White House estimates that the House-passed bill would save more than $1.6 trillion, largely due to Medicaid and food stamps reforms, but Trump has yet to win over Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) and other fiscal conservatives drawing a red line on spending.
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AAF is not alone in criticizing the accuracy of the CBO, and past budget fights have featured similar conservative complaints. Obamacare enrollment in the 2010s was half of what the CBO originally forecasted, while the Medicaid expansion cost more.
Today, Republicans claim Democrats are weaponizing CBO’s projections that 8.6 million people would lose their health coverage due to its Medicaid and Obamacare changes, as well as preliminary estimates showing a disproportionate benefit for higher-income earners.
Right-leaning tax experts have similarly found the tax bill could add $3 trillion or more to the deficit over the next 10 years, even when accounting for economic growth.
The director of the CBO, Phillip Swagel, was appointed to the post in 2019 by congressional Republicans.
AAF has select criticisms of the bill, including a more generous SALT deduction blue-state Republicans extracted from GOP leadership and new working-class tax exemptions Trump promised on the campaign trail.
But the organization simultaneously views the legislation as critical to cementing the cuts Pence helped enact during his time as vice president. Senate Republicans are pursuing a novel accounting method that allows them to extend the TCJA beyond the 10-year window of reconciliation, a budget process that sidesteps the filibuster.
Starting Friday, AAF plans to run a five-figure ad campaign thanking five battleground Republicans who supported the House bill: Reps. Tom Barrett (R-MI), John James (R-MI), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Scott Perry (R-PA), and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI).
The campaign is part of a larger, $10 million investment AAF rolled out last June to advocate its passage.
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“The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act allowed the American people to keep more of their hard-earned money, and liberals on the Left are desperate to skew that legacy whether it be undercounting the CBO score, or attacking those who voted to preserve the tax cuts,” AAF President Tim Chapman said in a statement.
“Advancing American Freedom will continue to lead the charge on tax cuts and advocate for the prosperity and relief they brought to the American people,” he added.
AAF CBO Has Underestimated TCJA Revenue by $1.5T So Far by web-producers on Scribd