JERUSALEM — As the Hamas–Israel war nears its 20th month and the Israeli military has once again expanded its operations in Gaza, a long-lasting resolution could still be elusive. Despite efforts by President Donald Trump’s administration, previous ceasefires failed to permanently stop the fighting.
For Hamas, the more destruction the Israeli military inflicts on Gaza, the better the optics. Hunkered down in the territory’s few remaining schools and hospitals, it has continued to use civilians as human shields.
On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to remove Hamas not only from power, but from the beleaguered territory as well, as a condition for a permanent ceasefire. Hamas, which launched the war on Oct. 7, 2023, when it infiltrated Israel and murdered 1,200 people and captured 251 more, rejects these demands.
Israel “is ready to end the war, under clear conditions that will ensure the safety of Israel: All the hostages come home, Hamas lays down its arms, steps down from power, its leadership is exiled from the Strip … Gaza is totally disarmed, and we carry out the Trump plan, a plan that is so correct and so revolutionary,” Netanyahu said during a May 21 press conference detailing his conditions for permanently ending the war.
This was reportedly the first time Netanyahu listed the Trump plan, which many have dubbed an attempt to “ethnically cleanse” Palestinians from Gaza, as a precondition.
When and how the war might end could depend largely on Trump and his vision for the Gaza Strip.
Trump, who once touted a plan for the United States to control and turn Gaza into a Middle Eastern “Riviera” while also relocating Gaza civilians to another country, is applying heavy pressure on both parties.
“We want to see if we can stop that, and Israel, we’ve been talking to them, and we want to see if we can stop that whole situation as quickly as possible,” the president told reporters on May 25. Five days earlier, Axios reported that Trump is “frustrated” by the war in Gaza and “upset by images of suffering of Palestinian children.” He wants Netanyahu “to wrap it up.”
Netanyahu appears to be doing the opposite. In recent weeks, the Israeli military has called up tens of thousands of reservists and deployed many of them to Gaza. It has intensified air strikes and repeatedly ordered Gazans to evacuate areas where Hamas is still hiding among civilians.
Netanyahu’s endgame is an open question mark. While his stated goal has always been to eradicate Hamas and bring back the remaining hostages, his decision to continue the war despite the opposition of Trump and the majority of Israelis who support a ceasefire that would bring home the remaining hostages is a purely political move, his critics claim.
In a May 23 survey by Israel Channel 12 TV News, 55% of respondents said Netanyahu’s main goal in the war is to stay in office, while 36% said it is to return the hostages and 9% said they do not know.
“Netanyahu has no endgame,” said Gershon Baskin, a political activist and longtime critic of Netanyahu’s policies. “He wants the war to continue because keeping it going preserves his coalition.”
Right-wing politicians in Netanyahu’s governing coalition have repeatedly vowed to topple the government unless the prime minister commits to reoccupying Gaza militarily. Some even want the government to rebuild the Jewish settlements Israel uprooted in 2005.
Instead, Baskin said, “the endgame should be releasing all the hostages, freeing an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners, establishing a new viable and peaceful Palestinian government, ending the siege on Gaza, allowing aid and building materials in, establishing an Arab temporary military force and a political framework to ensure that this is the last war.”
David Makovsky, director of the Program on Arab-Israel Relations at the Washington Institute of Near East Policy, said the prospect of an even longer, stronger Israeli military campaign in Gaza raises many difficult questions.
“What will it mean for the well-being of the hostages? What will it mean for reservists, who have spent 200, 300, 400 days in Gaza? Will Trump, who is known to have a short attention span, stay the course with Israel?” While the Israeli public has never doubted the need for Israel to fight Hamas in Gaza, Makovsky said, “now there is a fatigue factor” and the understanding that hostages can be injured during Israeli attacks. “The Israeli public does not want to retake Gaza.”
Professor Eytan Gilboa, an expert on Israel-U.S. relations at Bar-Ilan and Reichman universities, suspects that Netanyahu’s decision to accelerate the Israeli military campaign is Netanyahu’s last-ditch effort to strengthen Israel’s position at the negotiating table following a U.S.-facilitated ceasefire.
If the U.S., which has been negotiating directly with Hamas, tells Netanyahu to wind down the war, “Netanyahu will find it very difficult to say no,” Gilboa said. “The reason is that Netanyahu has defined Trump as the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House. The Republican Party is Trump’s party. Netanyahu does not have the support of Democrats.”
Still on a high from his four-day visit to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates and the $2 trillion these Gulf States promised to invest in the U.S., Trump wants to continue the momentum, Gilboa said.
A TIMELINE OF THE TRUMP-HARVARD SAGA
“Trump feels that Netanyahu and Hamas are undermining his vision and architecture in the Middle East,” Gilboa said. “He sees the end of the Gaza war as a key factor in the Saudi normalization with Israel and to building a strong Middle Eastern front against Iran, and toward peace and prosperity.”
Fortunately for Israel, the U.S. and several Arab countries and the Palestinian Authority all want Hamas’s rule to end, both civilly and militarily. “The question then becomes: Who will rule Gaza? The negotiations will be tough,” Gilboa said.
Michele Chabin is a journalist whose work has appeared in Cosmopolitan, the Forward, Religion News Service, Science, USA Today, U.S. News & World Report, and the Washington Post.