President Donald Trump’s one big, beautiful bill isn’t out of the woods yet, but it is closer to reaching his desk than ever before.
There are many reasons for that, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) having a better handle on his small and fractious conference than many assume whenever these tough votes come up.
Trump deserves a significant share of the credit himself. Returning from his trips overseas late last week to find his tax and spending bill held up by the House Budget Committee thanks to conservative defections, he began engaging in the process.
While still on Air Force One, Politico’s Rachel Bade reported that Trump “joined one of his top staffers in grilling” the committee’s Republican chairman about why he called a vote without a deal in place, embarrassing everyone in the process.” It was then pushed through the panel in a rare Sunday night vote, by a narrow 17-16 margin.
On Monday morning, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt declared the bill “represents a once in a generation opportunity to deliver on the Make America Great Again agenda responsible for President Trump’s landslide victory on Nov. 5. The ‘America First’ policies in this bill are the reason why Republicans currently have the majority in Congress right now.”
Leavitt left GOP lawmakers with no doubt who they would be letting down if the bill failed. “Passing this bill is what voters sent Republicans to Washington to accomplish,” she told reporters at the White House daily briefing. “And that’s why it’s essential that every Republican in the House and the Senate unites behind President Trump and passes the popular and essential legislative package.”
She then moved in for the kill: “Republicans must not side with Democrats in helping them raise taxes.” Read her lips.
Trump went to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to deliver the same message himself. He zinged blue-state Republicans who wanted to increase the state and local tax deductions and buttered up conservative Freedom Caucus members. He warned it wasn’t a good time to do anything rash with Medicaid. But he mostly paraphrased John Lennon and Paul McCartney: Come together. Right now. Over me.
When a reporter cited a conservative lawmaker saying the president didn’t sway enough House Republicans, Trump shot back, “Why don’t we see how the vote is?”
A SALT compromise was hatched later that night. Conservatives came to the White House on Wednesday for more strong-arming. The death of Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) added another vacancy, lowering the threshold for passage. And in the wee small hours of Thursday morning, the reconciliation bill, in its singular big and beautiful form, passed by the House by the slimmest of margins.
Now, it is on to the Senate, where Republicans have a somewhat larger majority and Democrats will be unable to filibuster the bill under the rules.
Nothing is guaranteed. In Trump’s first term, there was beer-drinking and celebrating when an Obamacare repeal made it through the House. Trump joined the chamber’s jubilant Republicans for a victory lap. Repeal efforts eventually died in the Senate, with then-Sen. John McCain’s thumbs-down dealing the decisive blow.
Republican senators have a bigger majority but similar divisions. They will pull the House-passed bill in different directions, though it will likely retain such Trumpian innovations as no taxes on tips or overtime. There is a reason many of Trump’s recent accomplishments have happened through executive order, even with the vaunted GOP “trifecta.”
In Trump’s first term, he might have blown up the internal negotiations on Twitter, as the social media platform was then known. It was also, in those pre-Truth Social days, still Trump’s favorite website for impromptu communications with the wider world. Some thought Trump’s dismissive SALT comments and jibes against conservative “grandstanders” might be a repeat of those tactics, except in person.
However, Trump has so far done better in dealing with congressional Republicans. He has helped avert a government shutdown and protracted speakership fight at the beginning of the new Congress.
Trump also has a far less contentious relationship with Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) than he did with former House Speaker Paul Ryan and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who was the upper chamber’s GOP floor leader throughout the president’s first term.
Rank-and-file Republicans also have greater confidence in Trump’s political acumen than they did back then, having watched his improbable comeback last year and return to the White House in January. That kept them on board during the weeks of stock market uncertainty following the tariffs rollout.
TRUMP TAKES CHARGE AS KEY VOTE NEARS ON HIS AGENDA
The more things change, the more they stay the same. In a time of growing debt, Republicans remain more adept at cutting taxes than federal spending. The recalcitrant conservatives are right about the deficit.
Nevertheless, Team GOP is closer to a major legislative win, with Trump leading the way.