President Donald Trump laid down the law with fractious House Republicans as they prepare for a key vote on his agenda.
We’ll soon see if they are listening even to the Republican leader with the most credibility with the party’s base, one who many lawmakers credit for their majorities on Capitol Hill in the first place.
Trump, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have defied expectations before when it comes to herding elephants in Congress. At various points, they have averted government shutdowns, another protracted fight over the House speakership, and any serious holdups in confirming Trump’s Cabinet.
Mike Johnson brings in Trump for final push on ‘big, beautiful bill’
Trump has also left his imprint on GOP policy priorities. The Senate unexpectedly passed his “no tax on tips” proposal from the 2024 campaign. Mostly skeptical Republican lawmakers have tried to give Trump’s tariffs gambit a chance to work. He faces much less intraparty opposition than in his first term.
But the “big, beautiful bill” being pursued by congressional Republicans through the reconciliation process represents much of Trump’s second-term agenda. It cannot be done through executive orders, and therefore it so far remains undone.
Renewing the Trump tax cuts could help soften the blow of the tariffs. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has argued that all these policies are interconnected and shouldn’t be viewed in isolation.
“Tax cuts and cost savings from deregulation raise real incomes for families and businesses,” Bessent wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “Tariffs provide income-tax relief and create incentives for reindustrialization. Deregulation complements tariffs by encouraging investments in energy and manufacturing.”
Yet the House majority remains slender. Fiscal conservatives see little progress toward getting federal spending or the debt under control. Centrist Republicans representing competitive districts in blue states want to greatly expand the state and local tax deduction caps set by the original 2017 Trump tax bill. There aren’t many votes to spare.
Trump gave instructions for House Republicans on Tuesday, or at least offered some friendly advice. Cool it on SALT, don’t disrespect the conservative Freedom Caucus, but also don’t mess around with Medicaid and other entitlement programs beyond curbing waste, fraud, and abuse.
“I know your district better than you do,” Trump told Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY). “If you lose because of SALT, you were going to lose anyway.”
Though that didn’t initially appear to sway members of the SALT Caucus, some House conservatives agree with that logic. If the 2026 midterm elections are bad for Republicans, they will be especially bad for blue-state centrists. To these conservatives, that’s an argument for passing what they consider to be a better bill now rather than appeasing or shoring up members likely to lose anyway.
Not everyone in the White House or the Republican side of the Hill is ready to concede the midterm elections so early, however. That is also likely the source of Trump’s admonition not to “f*** around” with Medicaid.
By Tuesday night, House leadership had arrived at a tentative deal with SALT-happy Republicans.
Trump’s poll numbers took a hit after the “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement and his rapid expenditure of political capital since returning to power in January. But they have slowly been trending back upward, as did the stock market for over a week after China tariffs relief, until a drop on Tuesday. Tax cut uncertainty may not have been the reason for the markets’ performance, but it likely didn’t help.
The president’s job approval rating is back up to 47.1% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, underwater by just 2.6 points. While buoyed by an InsiderAdvantage poll that found 55% approve of Trump’s performance, Morning Consult also has him at 48% and JL Partners at 50%.
TRUMP’S UNITY SPEECH DOESN’T DOESN’T SWAY SALT OR FREEDOM CAUCUS REPUBLICANS AT THE CAPITOL
Both Trump and congressional Republicans have a lot riding on the passage of some version of this bill eventually. Even with the tiny House majority, if Trump could get tax cuts passed with the 2017 GOP leadership team, it would stand to reason he could do so again.
Unless enough Republicans reject Trump’s counsel, deciding instead to “f*** around” and find out.