Democrats face a looming electoral dilemma due to the 2030 census.
Traditionally blue states, such as California and New York, are expected to lose congressional seats, while red-leaning states in the Sun Belt, such as Texas and Florida, are set to gain seats.
These changes not only could give the GOP an easier path to control Congress, but they could also make it even harder for Democrats to win the coveted 270 electoral votes needed to win presidential elections, the first of which would be 2032.
Demographics are not on the Democrats’ side as more residents flee expensive blue states for economic benefits in the South.
The 2020 census previewed the changing population growth to the South, as Texas gained two seats while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon all gained one House seat each.
In contrast, California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia all lost one seat.
December estimates from the Brennan Center for Justice show that Southern states will gain nine seats in the next reapportionment of congressional districts, with Texas, Florida, and North Carolina leading the changes. California is expected to lose four seats, while New York is expected to lose two seats. Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Illinois, Oregon, and Wisconsin are all estimated to lose a seat.
Another estimate from the American Redistricting Project shows Arizona, Utah, and Idaho each gaining one seat.
If these figures hold, the Democratic path to presidential history by winning the Blue Wall states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, along with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, would not reach the 270 threshold. The Democratic candidate would only win 258 electoral votes in 2032.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 election after failing to win any of the seven battleground states that would have pushed her above the 270 mark. President Donald Trump won 312 votes. In 2032, a Democrat would need to win the Blue Wall states, Nebraska’s 2nd District, and both Arizona and Nevada to eke out a 276–262 victory.
Democrats begin to sound the alarm
Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin has already sounded the alarm about the 2030 census and is cautioning party members against being “caught flat-footed” during future elections.
“You’re never going to gain back those voters if you’re not making investments of time, energy, and money and building the infrastructure and having the conversations with voters now to start building trust with folks,” Martin told the Washington Examiner in an interview.
Much of the population growth that is fueling the rise of Southern states has been attributed to migration trends of Latino, black, and Asian people.
Trump increased his share of support among voters of color, particularly with Latino and black men, during the 2024 cycle. Winning back those voters who defected is now critical if Democrats want to remain competitive.
“We know that we obviously have lost some ground with those communities in recent years. We have to do better there,” Martin conceded before noting a new state plan he announced this week.
Through the “Organize Everywhere, Win Anywhere” plan, the DNC will allot $17,500 to state officials in blue states and $22,500 to state parties in red states, the largest-ever spending move for state infrastructure from the DNC.
The increased spending could help state parties begin building the infrastructure needed to counter the challenges the 2030 census poses.
DNC CHAIRMAN KEN MARTIN HAS NO ‘INTENTION’ OF FORCING DAVID HOGG OUT OF LEADERSHIP
The battle to win over new Southern voters
William Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution, cautioned that the first half of the 2020s was widely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, which helped fuel population growth in the Sun Belt. That could ease in the second half of the decade.
“Just because these states have been red in this last election doesn’t mean that people moving there are going to vote the same way as the people who are already there,” Frey added.
Georgia, once a safe Republican state, voted for then-candidate Joe Biden in 2020 before flipping red in 2024 and currently has two Democratic senators, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, largely due to an influx of black and Latino voters.
Arizona and Nevada, two other swing states, voted for Trump in 2024 but backed Biden in 2020. Both Sun Belt states also have Democratic senators.
All three states have been heavily fueled by black and Latino voters, with Frey claiming it’s too early to see whether they are solidly Republican or Democratic voters.
“Yes, if Republicans are openly embracing Latinos, then they’re in good shape with these states,” he said before cautioning that some of these groups could still “lean Democratic.”
“I think that a lot is up for grabs,” Frey added.
Lorna Romero Ferguson, a Republican political strategist based in Arizona, told the Washington Examiner that both parties are still going to have to battle over redistricting efforts and keep extremist candidates from the ballot box to stay competitive after the 2030 census.
“Yes, there’s a big problem for Democrats because Republicans are going to pick up more seats in traditionally red states,” Ferguson said. “But it’s a question of how are these lines going to be drawn in 2030 for these congressional districts? I think that you’re going to see a lot more attention to these redistricting efforts in states after the 2030 census than we’ve ever seen before.”
In Arizona, Ferguson pointed to the sizable impact independent voters have on statewide elections.
“Democrats are hemorrhaging registered voters in Arizona. There is a decline, and so it really comes down to making the math work,” she said. “You have to be able to attract those independent voters, and it’s going to be interesting in 2030. Where are those independent voters when you look at a map of Arizona? And again, what are those issues that are impacting them that those candidates can speak to?”
Candidates such as Kari Lake, the Trump acolyte who failed to win her Arizona gubernatorial and Senate bids, may not perform well with independent voters who elected former Republican Sen. John McCain and former Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, better known for their maverick personas.
Democrats have made some inroads in North Carolina, with past Gov. Roy Cooper reportedly weighing a Senate challenge against vulnerable incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC).
Douglas Wilson, a Democratic strategist in the Tar Heel State, is urging his party to refocus on an economic message to counter Trump’s appeal.
“We have to go beyond just saying we’re going to raise taxes on millionaires and billionaires and use that money to create more schools, to create more programs, help the poor,” Wilson said. “It has to be more than that. It has to be something that people can touch on, that they can grab hold to.”
Democrats lost control of Congress and the White House in 2024 as voters took out their frustrations with rising grocery, gas, and housing costs at the ballot box.
Martin agreed with the growing Democratic calls to refocus on pocketbook issues during his interview with the Washington Examiner.
“We have to get back to focusing on a working-class agenda,” he said. “An economic populist agenda that gives people a sense that we’re fighting for them. And that’s true whether it’s in rural areas, suburban areas, or in the urban core.”
An urban-rural divide could be the key to the future
Democrats have twice failed to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who represents a state with a rapidly growing Latino population. The party has also struggled to regain its prominence in Florida, which hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 2012, when then-President Barack Obama won the state.
But Wilson noted that there may be a geographical advantage for Democrats in other Southern states compared to the Lone Star State.
“I think the reason why you’re seeing that where we’re doing better in some Southern states than others is because if you look at North Carolina and Virginia and Georgia, they have, in particular Georgia and Virginia, one big urban space that accomplishes almost half of the voting population in that state,” Wilson said.
The Atlanta metropolitan area was a key factor in driving turnout for Democrats in the Peach State, while the heavily blue northern Virginia counties have helped turn the Old Dominion into a purple-ish state.
In comparison, North Carolina’s rural areas play to the GOP’s advantage. The state hasn’t voted for a Democratic president since Obama in 2008.
Democrats have conceded that rural voters feel abandoned by the stereotype that Democrats only care about the coastal elites.
“Part of it is because we’re not organizing in their communities and giving them a sense of what we would do to actually deliver on the promise of improving their lives and strengthening their communities, that that is a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Martin said. “If you just give up on that, it’s always going to be the same. And so we have to start organizing in rural communities again.”
Martin pointed to a visit to Biloxi, Mississippi, in 2023, with then-Democratic gubernatorial candidate Brandon Presley. When Martin asked Presley what the DNC could do to help him in his race against Republican Gov. Tate Reeves, Presley pointed to a lack of infrastructure to help his campaign.
“That is a damning indictment on our party,” Martin said. “We should never be in a situation where there’s no infrastructure on the ground to help our candidates win.”
The anecdote is just one of the reasons Martin said he is focusing on a 10-year plan for the party, although his chairmanship will only last four years.
“We can’t keep having these fits and starts where we are recreating the wheel,” he said. “And starting over from scratch every two or four years. We have to have a longer-term lens that guides this work.”