House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will spend the next two days trying to tamp down a rebellion over President Donald Trump’s agenda as fiscal hawks demand a stronger commitment from the Senate on spending cuts.
A growing number of House Republicans are refusing to vote for a sweeping blueprint that unlocks Trump’s tax, border, and energy priorities after the Senate punted on one of the most controversial elements of the proposal.
The upper chamber is for now ignoring the $2 trillion in spending reductions that fiscal conservatives extracted from House leadership, instead instructing Senate committees to find a minimum of $4 billion in savings.
Johnson announced the House would take up the resolution after it cleared the Senate on Saturday, in effect gambling he can overcome resistance from budget hawks. But he may have no choice but to backtrack as those Republicans warn the resolution will fail on the floor.
There are at least 15 Republican “noes” on the resolution as of Monday afternoon, according to multiple lawmakers — more than enough to tank the bill in a chamber Johnson controls by three votes.
“What I wouldn’t do is put a bill on the floor that I do not believe has any chance of passage and, frankly, is embarrassingly weak with respect to its efforts to rein in spending,” one House Republican said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Johnson responded, “We will see,” on Monday when asked if he plans to stick to his schedule, telling reporters that a Tuesday morning conference meeting will help leadership decide.
Senate Republicans have for days stated that $2 trillion is the aspirational goal for budget cuts, with the lower, $4 billion target serving as a placeholder to ensure they comply with the filibuster-skirting rules of reconciliation.
Still, the ambiguity is fueling hard-liner suspicions they will try to jam the House with higher spending in the final bill. Senate GOP leadership is facing heartburn of its own from senators concerned by the level of Medicaid cuts implicit in the House blueprint.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), the Freedom Caucus’s policy chairman, told the Washington Examiner that “it’s fairly nakedly obvious that it’s purposeful” when asked about the lack of meaningful cuts in the Senate language.
Rep. Keith Self (R-TX), another Freedom Caucus “no” vote, questioned whether the resolution would even be brought to the floor later this week.
“They’re whipping it right now and I don’t think it can pass, so let’s see what happens,” Self told reporters.
Not only are members of the House Freedom Caucus opposed, but Johnson is facing blowback from corners of the GOP ordinarily aligned with leadership.
Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-TX) has repeatedly railed against the Senate instructions as “unserious,” though he has not outright said he would oppose the resolution.
Rep. Jay Obernotle (R-CA), who also sits on the Budget Committee, told NBC News that “we need to be thinking about a Plan B.”
Rep. Lisa McClain (R-MI), the House Republican Conference Chairwoman, told reporters on Tuesday that both sides of the spectrum, hard-liners and frontliners in purple districts, have valid concerns.
“That’s a really fine needle to thread,” McClain said, noting that they’ve been able to find consensus in past budget fights by starting with the opposition group and “then you whittle it down.”
“This play is no different than any other play,” the chairwoman added.
Johnson, for his part, is emphasizing to members that the House language is still in the blueprint, meaning each chamber can craft its own legislation and then compromise on the cuts down the road.
In a “Dear Colleague” letter to members on Saturday, House GOP leadership promised “historic spending reductions” as part of any negotiation with the Senate.
That message has so far fallen flat, however, as fiscal hawks urge Johnson to delay the vote until after the Easter recess. Members have floated everything from working out a compromise blueprint that matches the spending cut targets or simply allowing House committees to draft the legislation without a vote.
“Everybody wants to go around and say, ‘Oh, don’t worry. They included the House instructions in the Senate bill.’ Well, the average American has no idea what the hell that means,” said Roy.
“I’ll tell you what that means. It means the Senate wants to call the shots, and they believe their instructions are the only ones that will matter,” he added. “So it’s fake.”
The brewing opposition threatens to derail House Republicans at a perilous moment for Trump, who has sent the markets into a downward spiral with his tariff regime. If the House cannot approve the blueprint by the end of the week, when lawmakers depart for a two-week recess, Republicans will fall further behind on an agenda Johnson says is needed to reassure rattled markets.
Johnson already suffered the first blemish of this Congress last week when a procedural vote failed over an unrelated spat on proxy voting.
“We’ve done our work,” McClain said on Tuesday, echoing Johnson. “I would rather be in control. I would rather be in charge. … I think the quicker we bring resolution to the budget reconciliation, I think the positives: That brings some stability, that brings some certainty to the markets. Every time that we stay together, we have gotten a positive outcome.”
“If we stay together, we are in the driver’s seat. And I think we pass it by Memorial Day,” she added. “If not, I think it’s going to be a long time. Why would we wait?”
Trump has begun engaging with House Republicans in support of the blueprint, according to one White House official, and on Monday offered up his latest endorsement, asking the chamber to hold a vote as soon as possible.
The president will also be meeting with House GOP leadership on Tuesday night, the Washington Examiner confirmed, for a fundraiser where the budget resolution is expected to be discussed.
In past House fights, Trump was able to win over fiscal hawks with a promise that his administration would “right-size” the federal budget through his Department of Government Efficiency.
Johnson’s team, meanwhile, began whipping the budget resolution on Monday evening, with a Tuesday markup expected in the Rules Committee. From there, the House would hold a floor vote on the resolution Wednesday afternoon, according to a source familiar with the plan.
REPUBLICANS LOOK TO KEEP THE ESTATE TAX AT BAY
Leaving a Freedom Caucus meeting on Monday night to discuss the budget resolution, Johnson told reporters it was a “great conversation” and they are “moving the ball forward.”
“A lot of thoughtful deliberation, and we’ll do more of that tomorrow,” Johnson said, adding, “I’m very positive. We’re going to try to move this this week.”