Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears’s (R-VA) path to becoming Virginia‘s next governor could hit a speed bump with a MAGA primary challenger, as her Democratic opponent is on the fast track to the high-stakes November general election.
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger became the Democratic nominee for the off-year gubernatorial race on Thursday, but Earle-Sears must await whether former state Sen. Amanda Chase qualifies for the June primary ballot with 10,000 valid signatures.
If Earle-Sears avoids a contentious primary where support for President Donald Trump would be a key feature in the purple state, she has a better shot of making history as the nation’s first black female governor in November, experts told the Washington Examiner.
“This is a challenge that is always tough for any candidate,” said Debbie Walsh, director of Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics. “Because who turns out in a Republican primary is going to be the most conservative of Republican votes. But if [Earle-Sears] doesn’t have a primary, a real primary, that sets her in a good spot.”
Chase’s campaign persona as a Trump in heels could boost her in a GOP primary against Earle-Sears. But in Virginia, which has never voted for Trump in his three races, a connection to the president could hurt either GOP candidate in the general election.
“If [Earle-Sears] ends up as the sole candidate on the Republican side that lets her maneuver a little bit closer to the center,” Walsh added. “So I think that will be an advantage to her if she can avoid that.”
SLASHING THE FEDERAL WORKFORCE WOULD HAVE ‘IMMENSE’ IMPACT ON VIRGINIA GOVERNOR’S RACE
Chase’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment from the Washington Examiner. But in a post on her website, Chase said she filed for office just before the 5 p.m. deadline on Thursday.
She did not mention how many signatures she submitted.
“With only 20 minutes to spare until the deadline, we officially submitted all of our petitions and a filing fee of $3,500 to the Virginia State Board of Elections, to run for Virginia Governor,” Chase wrote.
The Republican Party of Virginia will need to verify the 10,000 signatures, which could take days, and only then can she appear on the ballot.
“There have been reports that Winsome did not have the combination of Republican backing and independent backing that would have been expected and some thought required for election victory,” former Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder told the Washington Examiner. “I think this pretty much goes in that direction. The question is what effect will that have in terms of the ultimate outcome?”
“Let’s assume Amanda doesn’t make it,” Wilder, a Democrat, continued. “So what do her followers do? Sit out the election, vote for the Democrat? Or do they contribute to what some would consider a dismantling of the Republican strength?”
The Trump factor
Looming over the gubernatorial race is a certain occupant of the White House.
“Donald Trump’s name will not appear on the Virginia ballot, but the reality is the gubernatorial race this year will be all about President Trump,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “Democrats will bring up the president at every opportunity, given his unpopularity in the commonwealth as a way of motivating the Democratic base.”
Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) won the gubernatorial race in 2021 in part by running on the backlash to Democratic leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic and by keeping Trump at arm’s length during the campaign season.
But whether Earle-Sears or Chase could replicate that playbook is complicated.
Chase’s attacks on the lieutenant governor stem from criticism that Earle-Sears isn’t MAGA enough. However, too much of a MAGA personality could backfire for Chase if she emerges from the primary.
On the Democratic side, Spanberger is running on the backlash against Trump’s efforts to slash the federal workforce, a major factor in the commonwealth’s economy.
But Brian Kirwin, a longtime Republican strategist in Virginia, warned that the anti-Trump strategy isn’t enough to win over voters, nor is Earle-Sears running as Youngkin’s No. 2.
“Once you get past that, it’s going to come down to the actual two people, and what they want to do,” Kirwin said. “None of them have really put forth that much of a platform or proposal of here’s what I would do the day I move into the governor’s mansion.”
Wilder concurred that a coherent message to the voters is lacking from either major candidate running.
“You want to run to be governor of Virginia, all right, why?” Wilder said. “What have you done? What do you bring, and what have you tried to do? And if I had to ask you to name those things, that’s what the voters want to know.”
In a statement to the Washington Examiner, Spanberger campaign spokeswoman Libby Wiet said the former congresswoman has “been focused on listening to Virginians across the Commonwealth about their vision for strong public schools, safe communities, and a more affordable Virginia.”
“Weeks into the Trump Administration’s attacks on federal workers, Abigail continues to hear from Virginians who have lost their jobs, are worried about their livelihoods, and are afraid they will lose their businesses,” Wiet continued. “As the next Governor of Virginia, Abigail will never be afraid to stand up for Virginians’ jobs and protect Virginia’s economy.”
The Earle-Sears campaign did not comment about the possible GOP primary challenger but said the lieutenant governor is building up a coalition that can win.
“Winsome is a proven winner and has already earned the support of dozens of Republican leaders, more than 60 sheriffs, community leaders, and clergy from across the Commonwealth,” said Peyton Vogel, Earle Sears’s campaign press secretary. “Other candidates can run campaigns but Winsome will have the winning one in both June and November.”
The historic nature of the governor’s race takes a back seat
Irrespective of whom the Republican candidate is, Virginia voters will elect their first female governor in November.
If Earle-Sears emerges victorious, she could be the nation’s first black female governor in the nation. But the historic nature of the campaign has not been at the forefront of the race.
David Richards, a political science professor at the University of Lynchburg, said the candidate who can win the centrist vote will likely win the state.
“Virginia as conservative as a state as it is, it does tend to be on the moderate end of things,” Richards said. “We don’t tend to be that kind of radical MAGA conservative.”
Trump lost Virginia in 2024 by nearly 5 percentage points, making Earle-Sears’s path to victory even harder. The commonwealth also tends to vote for the party that is not in the White House during its off-year gubernatorial election.
“She has a ways to go,” Richards said of the lieutenant governor. “She really needs to get that middle voter and some of that is going to be getting the African American vote, for sure, but I’m not sure that’s going to be enough if she can’t also get that middle, everybody-else voter.”
GOP efforts to paint Spanberger as a super liberal in a similar light as former Vice President Kamala Harris may not work due to the former congresswoman’s efforts to buck Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), when she worked on Capitol Hill.
“Spanberger is a tougher target for Republicans to hit than some Democrats would be,” Farnsworth said. “This is a Democrat candidate who has gone to considerable effort to present herself as a more moderate Democrat than some.”
Walsh, with the Center for American Woman and Politics, pointed out that none of the candidates need to point to their historic race while running.
“In many ways, neither of these two women have to say it, right?” Walsh said. “Everybody is going to know. They won’t need to say it. Other people will say it. Either of them may try to raise money from women in their state or nationally.”
Wilder, as the nation’s first black governor, said he did not run on identity during his historic campaign.
“I ran for statewide office twice, and I think the record will show that I never appealed to a segment of any voters,” Wilder said. “There is no coverall, end-all, description for individual voters. It depends on what the subject matter is. The subject in this instance, should be the people. What’s in the best interest of the people and what people? All the people.”
YOUNGKIN PITCHES BOOSTING RESERVE FUNDS IN VIRGINIA BUDGET WITH UNCERTAINTY IN DC
Kirwin, the Virginia GOP strategist, agreed that messaging would decide the race more likely than their identity.
“I don’t think it’s the determining factor in any large number of voters,” he said. “I think it’s a good thing to discuss. I think it’s a great thing that’s happening. But I don’t think at the end of the day, it’s going to determine who wins and who loses. It’s all going to come down to who has a message that can ignite voters to vote when they otherwise wouldn’t.”