The Democratic Party’s struggle to rebound from bruising losses last year has put it in a vulnerable position ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
It has been nearly four months since Republicans took control of the White House and Senate from Democrats, and the Democratic Party has been unable to rebound. In addition to not putting up a real fight against President Donald Trump’s agenda, the party is bleeding support, and there’s no sign of it stopping.
At the end of January, a Quinnipiac University poll had MAGA swaggering as the GOP took its largest-ever advantage over Democrats in favorability ratings. As Democrats shed support, particularly from male and Hispanic voters, another CNN poll earlier this month put the party’s favorability rating at a record low of 29%.
As with any party that loses the White House, there’s a period of soul-searching. However, despite caucus retreats meant to get members on the same page and build momentum, every move the party makes seems to dig it deeper into a rut.
Democrats have yet to establish a clear national leader who can propel their party to victory as aging establishment figures such as Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) increasingly fall out of favor with their colleagues. After losing the majority in the Senate to the GOP last November and more recently acquiescing with Trump’s demands to move a key government spending bill forward, Schumer has faced calls to step down as leader. Some Democrats have proposed that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) should challenge him for his Senate seat.
“Here’s what I will say: The American people are fed up with the old guard,” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) said during a CNN interview Sunday. “There needs to be a renewal. You know, in Silicon Valley, when a company isn’t doing well, you don’t keep the same team, and I think there’s going to be a new generation in this country.”
Failure to organize behind a national leader has led to poor messaging and opposition tactics. Divisions over how to stop the president’s successes have been on full display in the House as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) struggles to corral raucous progressive elements of his caucus.
Efforts that could boost the party’s image, including from popular personalities such as former first lady Michelle Obama, seem to be falling flat with voters. Amid polling data earlier this month that show enthusiasm for the Left has reached all-time lows, Obama launched a podcast to “share our perspectives.”
The former first lady’s podcast saw dismal subscriber rates and views, leading to criticism that “even with a mass marketing campaign, [she] got less views than your average 20-year-old girl on TikTok making a video about her Starbucks order.”
Democrats’ efforts to take on the GOP through town halls have also been unsuccessful as they meet voters outraged that the party isn’t waging a more fiery assault on the Trump administration.
Reps. Glenn Ivey (D-MD), Sean Casten (D-IL), and Gil Cisneros (D-CA) and Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) are a few of the lawmakers who have faced questions at recent constituent events in their home states about why they aren’t more “angry.”
During Ivey’s town hall, one outraged voter told him that constituents “want him to show fight, and you are not fighting.”
“It’s not that you’re in the minority. It’s that you’re not even working on a shared strategy, and that is failure,” the attendee yelled. “The message you should clearly take to your colleagues from your constituents is this: We are not interested in hearing that you’re in the minority. We know that. We want you to show some of the backbone and strategic brilliance that [former Republican Senate Minority Leader] Mitch McConnell would have in the minority.”
A “Stopping Oligarchy” tour headlined by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Ocasio-Cortez emerged as perhaps a singular bright spot for the Democratic Party. The pair, who urged Democrats to focus on reaching out to the working class, a demographic that scorned the Left during the 2024 elections, saw tens of thousands turn out for their rally in Colorado over the weekend.
Yet, even here, the glimpse of sunlight for Democrats might not last. The elderly Sanders will likely not run for president in 2028, and Ocasio-Cortez’s stance on issues such as a transgender policy and immigration could be unpopular at the polls in four years.
The party faces a hard battle in the 2026 midterm elections. In addition to low popularity, divisions on messaging, and chaotic leadership, some Democratic lawmakers have announced they will not seek reelection, making the path toward building power even more challenging. Democrats will have to recruit new candidates to defend the seats of Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Tina Smith (D-MN), and Gary Peters (D-MI) during the election cycle.
Republicans particularly see opportunities to expand power in New Hampshire and Michigan, both politically purple states.
“This is an earthquake, and it absolutely puts this in play,” Jim Merrill, a New Hampshire-based Republican strategist, said of Shaheen’s retirement in comments to CNN. “There’s no question about it. The seat is now absolutely competitive.”
Richard Groper, a political science professor at California State University, told the Epoch Times that Democrats could face challenges in New Hampshire if the state’s former Republican governor, Chris Sununu, decides to run for the Senate seat.
“New Hampshire is a wild card because the Granite State has always been a purple state: It’s kind of lean blue, but they have a red governor,” he said. “So if Sununu does run, he has great name recognition, and that could be hard to overcome for Democrats.”
Joshua Koss, a politics professor at Eastern Michigan University, suggested in comments to NTD that Michigan Democrats might be hard-pressed to fend off a GOP expansion in the state in 2026.
“Michigan has been pretty firmly cemented as a swing state across the past several cycles at the presidential level, and while Republicans haven’t held a Senate seat from the state since … 2000, an open seat could provide them an opportunity to pick up that seat,” he said.
Adding to the Left’s struggles are data showing people are moving out of blue states. The GOP is touting shrinking populations in California, New York, and elsewhere as proof voters are dissatisfied with Democratic policies. If the trend holds through the 2030 census, Democrats stand to lose several House seats and Electoral College votes to states that went to Trump during the 2024 election.
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The Census Bureau’s 2024 population estimates showed California lost 239,575 people through domestic migration, more than any other state. Census Bureau estimates released in December 2023 found that New York’s population had decreased by 101,984 residents in the previous year, while a November 2024 Cornell University analysis found the Empire State’s population could decline by over 13% in the next 25 years.
In a PBS News analysis, the Brennan Center for Justice projected California would lose four seats and that New York would lose two in the 2030 census. Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Rhode Island, all states that have consistently backed Democrats for president and sent Democratic majorities to the House, were predicted to lose one seat each.