As politics increasingly divides America and the public, there appears to be a growing expectation that states will make moves to break away from the United States, the first step in a second civil war.
New data shared with Secrets from John Zogby Strategies found that younger voters, Hispanics, and black voters believe that so-called “secession” is likely.
Pollster Jeremy Zogby’s latest survey found that 41% of younger voters, 18-29, believe secession is likely, as do 39% of black voters and 51% of Hispanics.
Something is fundamentally broken in our society if people think that the way to protest against @elonmusk is by setting Teslas on fire.
— Jose del Corral (@J0se) March 19, 2025
Zogby said that expectations of a national divorce by young voters are troubling. “This is key because this is the future of the electorate,” he said in a podcast with his father, pollster John Zogby.
The results come as other polls show growing expectations among voters of a politically-driven civil war as the Republican Party is winning fast-growing support from younger, black and Hispanic voters.
The new numbers also come against a backdrop of violence on the left against Trump’s team, notably Tesla founder Elon Musk. There have been multiple reports in the past week of liberals damaging Teslas, Tesla charging stations, and Tesla dealerships.
And in Washington, there have been protests and calls for violence by liberals against Musk and Trump, who are overseeing a dismantling of the bureaucracy. Even during Trump’s recent joint session speech, one Democrat stood and waved his cane at the president as he spoke.
In a National Divorce, our Department of Defense would defend America’s borders not be on the verge of WWIII with Russia and China because our overly powerful federal warlords serve Ukraine first. https://t.co/CM0R6RP8As
— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene
(@RepMTG) February 22, 2023
Just yesterday, Secrets reported that voters aged 18-29 were turning away from Democrats to Republicans, where they could stay for “decades.”
The new Zogby data bolsters those surveys and feeds into campaigns by some, such as Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), for a “national divorce” into blue and red states.
Jeremy Zogby has been studying the concern for years, and his data suggests that some voting groups are warming to secession.
Democrats poised to lose youth vote for ‘decades’ @dellavolpe ‘Conservatives are winning the youth messaging war’@charliekirk11 ‘Our messaging is better because our ideas are better’https://t.co/h2np6yAOYx via @dcexaminer pic.twitter.com/RL5MfStw8P
— Paul Bedard (@SecretsBedard) March 18, 2025
Back in 2023, he told us, “When tracking these numbers over time, it becomes clear a sizable portion of the American public keeps a plan B in case all else fails. While half of the public in the latter poll believe we’ll overcome the increasing partisan warfare — nearly one-third, cutting across major demographics, believe that the train may have left the station.”
Now it’s clear that there is even more support after the election of President Donald Trump.
“People are basically living in alternative realities,” he said.
In his latest poll, he asked two key questions about the national divide, the one on secession and another on whether the country was drifting apart or coming together. On that, he found that 59% believe the country is drifting apart, and just 25% said coming together.
There was the usual partisan divide, but also 65% of independents believe the nation is coming apart.
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Neither pollster blamed one side for the division, lumping in both parties and their leaders. But Jeremy Zogby said that it could grow worse.
“This is brewing and could potentially boil over,” he said.