House and Senate Republicans face a consequential week for the future of the party as they return to Congress fresh off winning the White House, flipping the Senate, and likely keeping the House.
GOP leadership elections in both chambers will chart a course for how Republicans will seek to work with President-elect Donald Trump on a unified front.
Senate GOP
Senate Republicans are facing their biggest power shake-up in nearly 20 years and certainly since Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) first became party leader in 2007. McConnell will continue to serve as a rank-and-file member but decided to step down from leadership earlier this year.
There are also downballot leadership changes, including a contested spot to be the next No. 3 Republican. The elected positions will take effect once the new Congress is seated on Jan. 3.
Senate Republicans will meet as a conference for a candidate forum to debate the leader position on Tuesday at 6 p.m., their first day back post-Election Day. A new member orientation will also take place that evening.
On Wednesday at 9:30 a.m., GOP senators who will still be in office next Congress and senators-elect will meet to cast anonymous ballots for the coveted leadership spots. A simple majority is required for each position. A second round of ballots may be required to determine the leader.
Senate Democrats won’t hold their elections until early December.
McConnell successor
Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD), Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), and Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) are gunning for the top job. Trump’s triumphant comeback is looming large behind the scenes over the intense battle as all three prepare for the distinct possibility he could attempt to influence the internal affair with an endorsement.
Thune is perceived as the marginal front-runner, given his role as McConnell’s deputy. But lawmakers and insiders still say it’s a toss-up against Cornyn. Scott, who is pushing an anti-establishment agenda and backed by Trump-world allies off Capitol Hill including Glenn Beck, Charlie Kirk, and Dan Bongino, will capture a sizable chunk of the most conservative wing of the conference but is the underdog.
Thune is trying to fend off Trump’s intervention by publicly encouraging him to stay neutral. Thune visited Mar-a-Lago in March and has “regularly communicated” with Trump in the months that followed, including as recently as last week after the president-elect defeated Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a source familiar with the discussions.
Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), who’s backing Thune, has privately urged Trump to refrain from entering the mix. Others who publicly support Thune include Sens. Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Steve Daines (R-MT), chairman of the Senate GOP campaign arm and a close Trump ally.
“There’s only one person in the race that President Trump just absolutely does not get along with,” Mullin told the Washington Examiner, declining to elaborate if he was referring to Cornyn or Scott. “But Thune and him are in a good place.”
Cornyn served as majority whip when Trump was president and has also had regular discussions with Trump. His bid is backed publicly by Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO).
Both Thune and Cornyn and prolific fundraisers and campaigners for Republican senators and candidates, each raising tens of millions of dollars this cycle for GOP colleagues as they ran for leader.
But only one of them, Scott, doesn’t have a rocky past with Trump. In fact, Trump endorsed Scott’s first leadership run in a failed challenge against McConnell in 2022. Scott is backed publicly by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI).
“I’m feeling good about Thune,” a senior Senate GOP aide said. “Would be surprised if it went any other way.”
GOP Senate whip
Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), chairman of the Senate Republican Conference, is running unopposed for the No. 2 spot to replace Thune as whip.
Senate Republican Conference chair
The only other contested race among leadership is for Barrasso’s No. 3 spot being sought by No. 4 GOP Policy Committee Chairwoman Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR). The two spent the summer and fall crisscrossing the country to campaign and fundraise for Republican Senate hopefuls.
The match is competitive, but insiders say there is a real chance for Cotton to pull off an upset victory and oust Ernst from leadership.
GOP Senate policy chair
Fifth-ranked Republican Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) is also looking to move up a rung by ascending to Ernst’s spot as GOP policy chair. Capito is running unopposed.
NRSC chair
Daines, fresh off winning Republicans back the majority, isn’t vying for another cycle as head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), the former presidential candidate who was on Trump’s VP short list, is running unopposed to take the helm of the campaign arm. Scott’s White House run elevated his national profile, which he’s used to campaign and fundraise for Trump and GOP Senate candidates across the country.
House Republicans move forward with own elections
House Republicans will hold their leadership elections on Wednesday to elect, or reelect, rather, their slate of top GOP leaders in the lower chamber. Lawmakers have until Tuesday to submit their names for consideration before the conference holds a candidate forum Wednesday morning.
The election will then be open throughout the day. It’s not clear when the results will be announced.
Most of the leadership positions appear unchallenged heading into next week, with the top four GOP lawmakers running for another term in their leadership positions.
House Democrats will hold their leadership elections the following week, beginning on Nov. 19 and ending on Nov. 20, according to a letter sent to lawmakers on Thursday.
House speaker
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will run for another term as the top House lawmaker, assuming Republicans hold on to their slim majority, and that position will be decided in a congresswide vote at the beginning of next year.
However, Johnson will need to use the next few weeks to firm up support among the House GOP to avoid a repeat of what happened in January 2023, when it took 15 ballots for then-Rep. Kevin McCarthy to secure the gavel.
One of Johnson’s strongest advantages is the support of Trump, who has praised the speaker’s leadership and has said he expects him “to be around for a long time.”
However, that could be easier said than done. At least two House Republicans, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY), have vowed not to support a future speakership bid from Johnson — which could spell trouble if Republicans have a similarly slim majority come next January.
No other Republican has publicly announced a bid for speaker as of Friday. The speaker does not need to be an elected member of the House.
House majority leader
Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) will run for another term as House majority leader, which has fewer hurdles than the speakership position. To be reelected, Scalise only needs a simple majority of the GOP conference when they reconvene next week.
Scalise announced his intention to run for another term in a “Dear Colleague” letter sent to House Republicans this week, in which he touted plans to support Trump for an aggressive agenda in his first 100 days.
“We methodically laid out a road map — passing key aspects of Trump’s bold agenda to clearly show how we would govern if given this historic opportunity,” Scalise wrote. “Now, we need a Majority Leader who knows how to take that road map and, under President Trump’s leadership, implement a bold, conservative Republican agenda. I am running to continue the work I started as Majority Leader, and I humbly ask for your support.”
House majority whip
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) will also run for a third term in his No. 3 slot, which also requires only a simple majority vote in the GOP conference.
He is currently running unopposed. In his letter to lawmakers, Emmer vowed he will “always be direct, honest, and transparent” and “never make false promises or try to buy your votes.”
“As Majority Whip, my role is to support every Member of this Conference to help you be successful,” he wrote.
House Republican Conference chair
One question mark about GOP leadership is the position held by House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY).
Stefanik assumed the fourth-highest ranking position in May 2021, quickly establishing herself as a staunch and close ally of Trump. That loyalty put Stefanik on his initial short list for vice presidential contenders and in consideration for a position in his second administration.
Stefanik sent a letter to GOP lawmakers on Thursday announcing her intent to run for the position again, outlining her priorities for the next Congress. However, it’s unclear whether she would vacate that post to serve in the Trump administration or who would replace her if she does so.
House GOP policy chair
One of the only brewing leadership fights in the House GOP conference is for the position of policy chair.
The position is responsible for formulating and promoting Republican policy initiatives and is the fifth-highest position in the House Republican majority. The seat is held by Rep. Gary Palmer (R-AL), who announced he would run again for another term.
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However, Palmer faces a challenge from Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK), the chairman of the Republican Study Committee. Hern announced his bid on Thursday along with a list of current and incoming GOP lawmakers who endorsed his candidacy: Reps. Tom Cole (R-OK), David Joyce (R-OH), Ronny Jackson (R-TX), Greg Murphy (R-NC), Nick Langworthy (R-NY), Rich McCormick (R-FL), and Mike Flood (R-NE), as well as Reps.-elect Tony Wied and Riley Moore, who just won seats in Wisconsin and West Virginia, respectively.
“I’ve always been about policy over politics. It’s good policy work that brings about true change for the American people. A rising tide lifts all boats — when our Conference delivers strong policy, we all win,” Hern wrote in a letter to GOP lawmakers. “These two years will demand our absolute best. We need strong leadership, effective policies, and powerful bridgebuilders to get our agenda across the finish line. That is why I am humbly asking for your support to chair the Republican Policy Committee.”