Early results coming in on election night show a tight race for the House majority, a battle that could drag on for days and will be determined by just a handful of toss-up districts scattered across the country.
Democrats had the first seat flips of the night after John Mannion defeated Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY), flipping the seat back to Democratic control after Williams won in the 2022 midterm elections. Mannion’s victory spells good news for Democrats as they also look to flip the seats held by Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY) both of whom were first elected in 2022 and flipped their districts red, which was crucial for Republicans to win the House majority.
Flipping all three back into Democratic control would give a major boost to Democrats as they look to win back the House.
Democrats also gained a seat in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District, which is held by Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL), who ran in the state’s 1st District after lines were redrawn in the state and he was shifted into new boundaries.
All 435 seats are up for grabs, and either party needs to secure at least 218 of those seats to win the majority. Of those, only 43 are considered to be competitive — with even fewer rated as toss-ups that are likely to determine which party wins the majority.
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To maintain their current five-seat majority, Republicans will need to win at least 10 of the 22 seats that are considered toss-ups in addition to defending the 208 seats that are rated as “likely” or “lean Republican.” Twelve of those 22 seats are held by GOP incumbents.
On the other hand, Democrats need only to have a net gain of four seats to win the majority. The party is projected to lose at least four, including three in North Carolina and one in Michigan, meaning Democrats will need to flip at least eight seats to win the majority if they can hold the 208 seats that are projected to fall their way.
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Of the 22 toss-up seats, only one has been called by the Associated Press as of 12:30 EST. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-IA) held on to his seat for the GOP after defeating Democrat Lanon Baccam, 51.6% to 48.4%.
Democrats had other good calls in competitive districts early on in the night, with both Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) and Rep. Darren Soto (D-FL) defeating their Republican challengers by double digits.
However, those wins could be offset as Republicans managed to pick up a few key wins in North Carolina, flipping its 6th, 13th, and 14th districts previously held by Reps. Kathy Manning (D-NC), Wiley Nickel (D-NC), and Jeff Jackson (D-NC), respectively. The three incumbents opted not to run for reelection after the maps in North Carolina were redrawn in 2023 to favor Republicans, making it virtually impossible for them to win.
Eyes are also on North Carolina’s 1st District, where Rep. Don Davis (D-NC) is facing a narrow race with GOP candidate Laurie Buckhout. As of 12:30 a.m., Davis held a slight 1.1-point lead, 49.5% over Buckhout’s 47.9.
Buckhout released a statement suggesting she will seek a recount if it is required. A recount can be requested if the margin is less than 1 point.
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There are two seats to keep an eye on in Virginia: Democrat Eugene Vindman was narrowly leading Republican Derrick Anderson in Virginia’s 8th Congressional District to replace the retiring Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA). That seat became a toss-up after Spanberger announced she would not run for reelection, making it a crucial seat for Democrats to defend as part of their efforts to win the majority.
Meanwhile, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) was leading in her reelection contest, a key race for Republicans to hold on to as part of their efforts to defend their slim majority. Kiggans flipped the seat in 2022.
There are a number of seats up for grabs on the West Coast that could give good indicators of the House majority, although many of those races are not expected to be called for a few days.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) expressed confidence in Republicans’ chances to keep the majority, telling reporters on Tuesday night that while it’s “too early to call everything,” he remains “very optimistic.”
“It looks good. I’ve been in the war room. I’m calling the candidates as they’re calling the races,” he said. “All our friends were congratulating them. We’ve got some awesome people joining the conference, we’ve got new members coming in, and I think we’re going to have many more.”
This story is developing and will be updated.