Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are locked in a coin-flip race nationally in the polls, but their paths to the White House run through different states.
A victory for either candidate will be determined by how many of the seven battleground states they can win. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania make up the “blue wall” states, while Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina are the Sunbelt states that will help decide the next president.
However, Trump and Harris’s paths to the coveted 270 Electoral College votes, the number needed to become the presumptive president, are divergent, according to simulations on the website 270toWin.
Harris is heading into the election with likely 226 electoral votes from traditional blue states and blue-leaning swing states, as opposed to Trump’s 219 electoral votes from traditional red states and GOP-leaning states. That leaves 93 electoral votes for the two candidates to battle over.
Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes remain the top battleground both Trump and Harris need to win a smooth path to victory. However, they can still win the White House without it if they can make up for the loss with other battlegrounds.
Here’s what a win for either candidate looks like, provided they win other states that have traditionally voted Republican and Democratic.
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What Trump’s easiest path to winning looks like
The former president’s best path to the White House involves winning Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia, along with one electoral vote in Maine, which would put him right at 270 electoral votes to Harris’s 268 votes.
Winning those three states would also mean he could lose the other four battleground states but still serve a second term as president.
Trump won only one of those states, North Carolina, in his 2020 battle against President Joe Biden. He is currently narrowly leading Harris in the Tarheel State and the Peach State, according to several poll averages.
Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that award electoral votes based on statewide results and congressional districts. Trump is likely to win one electoral vote in Maine, while Harris is favored to win one electoral vote in Nebraska.
What Harris’s easiest path to winning looks like
The vice president’s best path to the White House is to win all three “blue wall” states, which include Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, plus one electoral vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. This would put her at exactly 270 electoral votes and Trump at 268 electoral votes.
If Harris pulls off that feat, she could lose every other battleground state and still win the White House.
However, that path could prove difficult, as Trump is leading her in those three states according to RealClearPoltics‘s polling averages. FiveThirtyEight‘s polling averages show the candidates tied in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but Harris is leading by one point in Michigan.
Other alternative routes for Trump
There are other, less plausible paths for Trump to reach 270 electoral votes, although they would still involve him winning Pennsylvania and Georgia. If Trump wins those two states, plus Arizona, Michigan, and Maine’s one electoral vote, it would put him at 280 electoral votes to Harris’s 258 votes.
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Trump could win the “blue wall” states along with North Carolina and Maine’s electoral votes, which would give him 279 electoral votes to Harris’s 259 votes. Or he could win the “blue wall” states plus Georgia and Maine’s electoral votes and win 279 electoral votes to Harris’s 259 votes.
However, like Harris, Trump’s path to winning all three “blue wall” states could be difficult due to tight polling margins.
How Trump could win without Pennsylvania
Another scenario for Trump to win without Pennsylvania involves taking Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, and Maine’s one electoral vote, which would give him 272 electoral votes to Harris’s 266 votes.
He could also win the White House via Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, and Maine’s one electoral tie.
The aforementioned scenario would land Trump at 277 electoral votes to Harris’s 261 votes.
Other alternative routes for Harris
Harris could also defeat Trump if she won Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, and Nebraska’s one electoral vote but lost Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which would put her at 278 electoral votes to Trump’s 260 votes.
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Another pathway includes winning the Keystone State, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, and Nebraska’s electoral votes but losing Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan, which would give her 272 electoral votes to Trump’s 266 votes.
How Harris could win without Pennsylvania
Without winning Pennsylvania, Harris would likely need a majority of the other battleground states to reach 270 electoral votes, although this scenario is far less likely.
If Trump wins the Keystone State and North Carolina, Harris would need to win Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Nebraska’s one electoral vote to end up at 284 electoral votes to Trump’s 254 votes.
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Another Democratic victory involves Trump winning Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina and Harris winning Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska’s one electoral vote, resulting in 273 electoral votes for Harris to Trump’s 265 votes.
If Harris lost all three “blue wall” states, she could win all the Sunbelt states plus Nebraska’s electoral vote and end up at 275 electoral votes to Trump’s 263 electoral votes.