In the latest sign that President Donald Trump could be headed to a sweeping victory on Election Day, the Republican has nearly caught up to Vice President Kamala Harris in solid-blue Virginia, where the last Republican to win was former President George W. Bush in 20 years ago.
The latest Quantus poll of likely voters showed Harris at 48.9% and Trump at 47.8%.
“Virginia returns as a competitive battleground,” the survey analysis declared.
“With Harris leading by a razor-thin margin and showing strong support among young, urban, and minority voters, the state could hinge on turnout and suburban swing voters. Trump’s solid backing among men, older, and rural voters keeps him well within striking distance,” it added.
NEW 2024 Virginia GENERAL ELECTION POLL: QUANTUS INSIGHTS
Harris: 49%
Trump: 48%
Other: 3%
725 LV | Oct 22-24 | MoE 3.6%
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— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 25, 2024
Virginia was believed to be in play when President Joe Biden was expected to be the Democratic nominee, but it turned back to blue after Harris was chosen. Since then, she has failed to keep her support in Virginia (and several other areas) high.
GOP vice presidential candidate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Republican chairwoman and Trump daughter-in-law Lara Trump are expected to campaign for the former president this weekend in the commonwealth.
The poll came out just as a federal judge demanded that Virginia add back some 1,500 illegal voters to the voting rolls, a move that angered Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R-VA) and many GOP voters. That is expected to give a little boost to Trump.
Let’s be clear about what just happened: only eleven days before a Presidential election, a federal judge ordered Virginia to reinstate over 1,500 individuals–who self-identified themselves as noncitizens–back onto the voter rolls. https://t.co/QwloK1Sxr4
— Glenn Youngkin (@GlennYoungkin) October 25, 2024
The poll found that Virginians give Harris a slight approval rating edge but choose Trump on every topic except abortion.
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It said 58% found the economy to be the top issue, and nothing else was close. And by a margin of 51%-47%, they chose Trump as the better candidate to fix the economy.
Quantus also published its expectations on the overall electoral vote count and showed Trump with a healthy lead, 312-226, based on its unusual modeling formula.