Montana has been reliably red since 1952. The Big Sky State regained its second congressional District, which they lost in 1990, following the 2020 Census, giving them more Electoral College votes. When Donald Trump beat President Joe Biden by 16 points in 2020, he only took home 3 electoral votes, but in the 2024 election, Montana will have four Electoral College votes up for grabs.
The state is, however, in the midst of a competitive senate race between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Republican candidate Tim Sheehy. Tester has held the seat since 2006, and it is ex-Navy SEAL and businessman Sheehy’s first entrance into politics. Tester has placed emphasis on issues such as Indian Country, affordable housing, infrastructure, and LGBT rights. Sheehy has listed issues such as economy and energy, gun rights, fiscal responsibility, and education.
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The Washington Examiner is following the key problems people care about as they prepare to vote in the elections. The specific issues being tracked are Social Security, crime, abortion, the economy, and immigration.
The issues were chosen with the help of the Associated Press issues tracker. The Washington Examiner subsequently compared five of the key issues in Google Trends on a state-by-state basis, revealing which issues are most important to voters in swing-state contests.
Here, you can track the importance of these various concerns to Montana voters over a rolling 30-day period.
Social Security
Social Security was rated the No. 1 issue in Montana — a state where more than 1-in-5 residents rely on Social Security benefits. The Montana Alliance for Retired Americans has endorsed Sen. Jon Tester for reelection, with the group’s President Jay Reardon saying, “Tester has spent his career fighting to protect Medicare and Social Security, and he’ll always protect the hard-earned benefits that provide a secure retirement for Montana seniors.”
In Montana, 29% of registered voters are 65 years old or older, and MARA has funded radio ads bringing attention to Tim Sheehy, Tester’s opponent in the Senate race, and his plans to privatize Medicare, effectively ending the guaranteed health benefits Montanans have paid for.
Crime
Crime was the second issue for Montana voters. In 2022, violent crime rates were 10% higher than the national average, and violent crime still increased in 2023, with surges in aggravated assault and robbery driving the shift. However, murder and rape cases decreased last year as well as all forms of property crimes. The current crime rate in the state is 418 incidents per 100,000 residents.
The Big Sky State also cracked down on drug crimes by doubling its fentanyl seizures in just one year. In 2023, the state stopped 398,522 fentanyl dosages compared to 188,823 in 2022. There’s also been a decrease in opioid and heroin drug crimes and methamphetamine cases. In hopes of combating drug trafficking, Sen. Jon Tester secured $1.4 million for law enforcement in May 2024.
In 2021, Montana saw a record high of 4,773 domestic violence incidents. The rate has decreased but has remained steady in the last two years at about 4,410 cases. Firearms have been the leading cause of death or injury for victims of domestic violence, and Montana does not require a permit to purchase any shotgun, rifle, or handgun.
Gun violence is on the rise in Montana, and in 2022, the state had the sixth-highest gun death rate in the nation, increasing 43% from 2013 to 2022. In an average year, Montana sees 237 gun-related deaths, which is a death every 37 hours.
Abortion
The third-rated issue for voters in Montana is abortion. In 1999, the state’s Supreme Court ruled that abortion was protected within the right to privacy, but in 2023, lawmakers tried to alter the law to make the right to privacy exclude abortion care. The Montana Supreme Court decided in 2024 that Montana’s Constitution protects “procreative autonomy,” keeping the procedure legal up to the point of fetal viability.
Nonetheless, many healthcare providers will refuse to perform abortions earlier in the pregnancy. For patients under 16 years old, it’s required that a parent or guardian is notified of the procedure, but judicial bypass is an option as well. The state provides public funding for abortion care, and obstructing a clinic to prevent access is prohibited.
In 2022, voters rejected a referendum that would have criminalized medical professionals and furthered abortion stigma, but this year, there’s a new amendment on the ballot. Constitutional Amendment 128 would protect the right to abortion before fetal viability by prohibiting the government from obstructing or denying procedures.
Economy
Concerns over the economy ranked fourth for Montanans, and their unemployment rate has been below the national average since 2020. It currently sits at 3%, ranking the state 16th in the nation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Montana produced $68.04 billion in goods and services in November 2023 and saw a 1.8% increase in its GDP rate, amounting to a 4.2% growth rate. The real estate industry saw limited growth in 2023 but was still the highest earner in the state, raking in $9.88 billion in real GDP. Manufacturing grew 13%, education services increased 9%, and mining, oil, and gas extraction went up 7.5%. The construction industry also saw increases as real estate boomed.
Sen. Tester has made economy and job growth a selling point in his reelection campaign, as has Sheehy, but Sheehy approaches economic concerns with more of a national view of independent energy in comparison to Tester’s is more focused on improvements for small businesses across the state.
Immigration
Immigration ranked last for Montana voters, and the state has been dependent on immigrants for the recent booms cities such as Bozeman have been experiencing.
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Immigrants make up about 2.4% of the state’s population and 2.4% of the labor force, according to the American Immigration Council. About 96% of immigrants in Montana report being proficient in English, as the majority of immigrants in the state are from Canada. In 2022, immigrants had a total spending power of $828.6 million and paid $244.5 million in taxes.
Approximately 62.4% of immigrants in Montana are naturalized, but many remain undocumented as immigrants from Honduras and other Central American countries have been fleeing to Montana to take up jobs in construction amid the real estate boom.