The Trump campaign is cautiously optimistic about early voting data from the seven battleground states two weeks before polls close on Nov. 5.
It’s a turnaround from 2020 when Republicans once ceded the early voting advantage to Democrats as members of the GOP traditionally voted on Election Day and former President Donald Trump criticized absentee ballot or mail-in voting as vehicles for fraud.
Although not all states collect partisan early voting information and an increasing number of voters identify as independent or unaffiliated, the data underscores potential problems for Vice President Kamala Harris, with little time to course correct.
About 19 million voters have already cast their ballot in the 2024 election, but while some early voting data analysts, such as the University of Florida’s Election Lab, find that 45% of those voters are Democrats, 34% are Republicans, and 22% are unaffiliated voters or those who are affiliated with minor parties, the Trump campaign remains confident.
The Trump campaign, in particular, cites voter registration, in addition to absentee ballot requests and returns, in the all-important blue wall state of Pennsylvania as an example of its early voting strength compared to previous elections. The deadline to register to vote in Pennsylvania was Monday, with both campaigns now having a better understanding of the Keystone State’s universe of voters.
“All of the signs we’ve seen thus far are very encouraging,” Trump campaign spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told the Washington Examiner. “Republicans are out registering Democrats and heeding President Trump’s calls to vote early in key battleground states.”
Then in North Carolina, the state Trump won against President Joe Biden in 2020 by his smallest margin, the Trump campaign is contending it is also outperforming its early in-person and absentee ballot voting in contrast to past elections. The Trump campaign argues that the same can be said for Clark County, Nevada, which is anchored by the one-time Democratic stronghold of Las Vegas.
Meanwhile, Harris, herself, is projecting optimism, amplifying the record total early voting turnout in states including Georgia and North Carolina, which would have been more likely to indicate an edge for Democrats before the COVID-19 pandemic encouraged more Republicans to cast their ballots early as well.
“I don’t yet have enough data to tell you who’s voting for who and — or how they’re leaning, but I think it’s great that people are turning out and voting and being active,” Harris told reporters in Michigan last weekend. “It’s what we should all want — right? — in our democracy, that people understand it’s their civic duty, but also that they can make a difference.”
As early in-person voting starts in Wisconsin on Wednesday, here is what we know about early voting data and what it means for the election so far:
Georgia
Early in-person voting in Georgia started last Tuesday, though absentee ballots have been mailed to registered voters since Oct. 7, with 1.8 million votes cast so far. The Peach State does not collect party affiliation data, but 60% of voters have identified as white and another 27% as black, with 55% being women and 44% men, according to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.
University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock, contended black voter turnout thus far is “a little bit light for what Democrats need,” arguing it needs to be about 30% and “cohesively for Harris.”
For Bullock, “cohesively” is defined as Harris having the support of about 88% of black voters in Georgia because that is how much support Biden had among the demographic in 2020.
“The last two polls I looked at, they gave racial breakouts showing her getting about 87%” of the black vote in Georgia, Bullock told the Washington Examiner. “We were looking at polls from even two or three weeks ago and Harris was down around 83%, 82%, 81%, so it looks like the black vote is coming home to her, but it looks a little bit light. She needs to get another couple of percentage points there.”
There are a total of 7.2 million active registered voters in Georgia, with the state no longer accepting voter registration applications.
North Carolina
Early in-person voting in North Carolina started last Thursday, though absentee ballots have been mailed to registered voters since Sept. 20. About 1.4 million votes have been cast so far, 35% by Democrats, 34% by Republicans, and 31% by unaffiliated voters or those affiliated with minor parties, according to the North Carolina State Board of Elections. That is despite Hurricane Helene, which devastated much of the Tar Heel State.
Of the 401,000 absentee ballots requested thus far, 35% have been requested by Democrats, 25% by Republicans, and 40% by other voters.
Charles Bierbauer, former professor and dean of the College of Mass Communications and Information Studies at the University of South Carolina who now lives in North Carolina, contended the increase in Republican voter registration and early voting could be because Trump, who once “disparaged early voting,” is “now encouraging it.”
“Suspect that comes from view that early voting used to favor Democrats, and Trump does not want to concede any advantage or perceived advantage to Democrats,” Bierbauer told the Washington Examiner.
“My sense also is that early voting is a relief from both the trauma of Helene, at least in our part of western North Carolina, and the campaign fatigue voters are experiencing,” Bierbauer, the one-time CNN correspondent, whose house was damaged by the hurricane, added. “A lot of voters are just tired of the campaign, the ad barrage, the vitriol. Early voting allows them to say they are done.”
There are a total of 7.8 million active registered voters in North Carolina, 31% of whom are Democrats, 30% are Republicans, and 38% are nonpartisan. North Carolina residents have until Nov. 2 to register to vote.
Nevada
Early in-person voting in Nevada started last Saturday but registered voters were automatically mailed absentee ballots from Oct. 9. About 260,000 votes have been cast so far, 37% by Democrats, 39% by Republicans, and 24% by unaffiliated voters or those affiliated with minor parties, according to Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar and the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
Of the 2 million absentee ballots requested thus far, 30% have been requested by Democrats, 29% by Republicans, and 41% by other voters.
The Nevada Independent‘s Jon Ralston, considered the dean of Nevada politics, said Republicans were leading statewide after three days of early voting, which has not happened since 2004.
“This could signal serious danger for the Dems and for Kamala Harris here,” Ralston wrote on Monday. “It’s too soon to call it a trend, but this was a huge day for Republicans in Nevada. A few more days like this, though, and the Democratic bedwetting will reach epic proportions.”
There were a total of 2 million active registered voters in Nevada as of October, 30% as Democrats, 29% as Republicans, and 34% as nonpartisans. Nevada residents have until Election Day to register to vote.
Pennsylvania
Voter registration in arguably the most important blue wall state, Pennsylvania, closed on Monday, with a total of 9 million active registered voters, 4 million of whom are Democrats, 3.7 million are Republicans, and 1.1 million who have no affiliation or are affiliated with minor parties, according to Pennsylvania Secretary of State Al Schmidt.
Franklin & Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research director Berwood Yost contended Democrats’ voter registration advantage in Pennsylvania has declined “significantly since 2008 and 2009″ when they had a 1.2 million voter registration edge over Republicans,” and there are now more nonpartisan voters.
“The change in registration definitely is a good sign for Republicans, but it is also probably true that some of this is people switching their registration to catch up to their recent voting behaviors,” Yost told the Washington Examiner. “It also reflects, at least in part, dissatisfaction with the current president.”
Pennsylvania does not have early in-person voting, but absentee ballots have been mailed or provided in-person to registered voters in some counties since Sept. 16. About 1 million absentee ballots of the 1.9 million requested so far have been returned, 62% by Democrats, 29% by Republicans, and 10% by nonpartisans, according to Pennsylvania’s Department of State.
Of the 1.9 million absentee ballots requested thus far, 58% have been requested by Democrats, 30% by Republicans, and 12% by other voters.
“In 2020, PA had 2.6 million mail-in and absentee ballots counted, and Biden won 75% of them,” Yost said. “So I imagine the more mail-in ballots that are banked the better news that is for Democrats.”
Arizona
Early in-person voting started in Arizona on Oct. 9 and absentee ballots have been mailed out to registered voters since that same day. About 667,000 votes have been cast so far, 36% by Democrats, 42% by Republicans, and 22% by unaffiliated voters or those affiliated with minor parties, according to Uplift Data using the Arizona Democratic Voter File and Arizona County Recorder.
Of the 3.3 million absentee ballots requested thus far, 32% have been requested by Democrats, 36% by Republicans, and 31% by other voters.
Regardless of Republicans’s voter registration and early voting edge, University of Arizona political science professor Samara Klar contended the number of Grand Canyon independent voters makes it hard to extrapolate from the data too much.
“Arizona has been voting in Democrats despite the fact that there are more registered Republicans and that is because a full third of Arizonas are independent and have evidently been leaning left,” Klar told the Washington Examiner. “Thanks to this large portion of ‘other’ ballots that have been mailed in, it’s really impossible to say who has the advantage so far.”
There are a total of 4.3 million active registered voters in Arizona, 29% of whom are Democrats, 36% are Republicans, and 35% are nonpartisan. Arizona is no longer accepting voter registration applications.
Michigan
Early in-person voting in another blue wall state, Michigan, started last Saturday, though absentee ballots have been mailed to registered voters since Sept. 26, with 1.2 million votes being cast so far, according to the Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. The Great Lakes State does not collect party affiliation data, but 57% of the 2.2 million absentee ballots requested thus far have been requested by women and 42% by men, a potential advantage for Democrats since women tend to be more liberal, per the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
The Harris campaign appeared more optimistic in Michigan, contending the vice president’s path to win Michigan “capitalizes on Trump’s unprecedented weakness in the suburbs.”
“Democrats have flipped the Michigan suburbs from red to blue since Trump won them in 2016, with the vice president growing her support among women and approximately doubling her support among white college educated voters,” a Harris campaign spokeswoman told the Washington Examiner. “The early vote returns also make clear that we will at least match Democrats 2020 levels in Detroit.”
“With most polls showing this to be a margin of error race, we are also going on offense with rural voters to cut into Trump’s margins — a critical advantage as Trump’s team lacks the ground game capacity to conduct persuasion and mobilization campaigns simultaneously,” the spokeswoman said.
There are a total of 8.4 million active registered voters in Michigan, but residents have until Election Day to register to vote.
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Wisconsin
Early in-person voting in the last blue wall state, Wisconsin, starts on Tuesday, though about 360,000 absentee ballots of the 612,000 requested since Sept. 19 have been returned so far, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Wisconsin does not collect partisan data on voters, but there were a total of 3.6 million active registered voters in Badger State as of last month. Residents have until Election Day to register to vote.